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c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 1 Here is what will happen .
Known demand for EB2 IC from USCIS is close to 10k. If available visas ( we
don't know but DOS knows in last qtr ) > 10k , lets assume its 11k for now.
Then DOS will go ahead and grant those 1k visas to NVC cases. If those 1k
visas good enough to reach April 2008 in NVC queue then date will be set for
that. If those visas are more and can reach upto end of 2008 then date will
be that.
It all depends on how far those extra visas can go in NVC queue. Side effect
of this is it allows USCIS to build pipeline.
If available visas are less than 10k then date will stay at July - Aug 2007.
and with every month supply of 250 visas date will move slowly in later
2007 in Q1 of 2012. After 4 months in 2012 USCIS will be ready with demand
of PWMB cases from early to mid 2007 so date will retro. As of now DOS has
guessd rather estimated that there will be enough visas over 10k known
demand from USCIS and those visas are enough to cross April 2008 so they may
have asked NVC to start preparing cases and nvc sent out email notices for
fees.
One more thing I noticed from consulate appointment that all employment
based interview dates are set early in month and DOS reserves those visas
for NVC cases as soon as they set cutoff date and if for some reason those
candidate cannot show up for interview consulate can return those number so
USCIS can use later in a month. My Guess is they will release enough visas
to cover all USCIS demand in August and if any extra visas available then
they will use those numbers for NVC cases in Sep. this way Sep month will be
only for NVC cases with date can go upto mid 2008 and at the same time
USCIS can build pipeline. In Oct if no porting happens and if USCIS doesn't
any of new cases ready that they received in July - Aug - Sep 2011 ( PWMB +
people with PD from Mid 2007 - April 2008 ) then date can move with NVC case
into later 2008 or early 2009 cases.
If USCIS process at least 250 cases from new intake then date will stop
there
As I said always USCIS is driving force for cutoff date. DOS is only
following supply - demand. which is working for them so far. Unless I see
new demand data or any new data from these agencies, this is final from me
on prediction.
__________________ | L***a
发帖数: 3674 | |
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