p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 1 Got the receipt # and check the uscis status
found that there are more than 40k application #s between Feb 1st and of
Jan 5.
90% are 485, 765 and 131 applications.
so there are 36k/3= 12k+ demand in Jan |
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 2 low or high?
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Got the receipt # and check the uscis status
: found that there are more than 40k application #s between Feb 1st and of
: Jan 5.
: 90% are 485, 765 and 131 applications.
: so there are 36k/3= 12k+ demand in Jan
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 3 how did you get 90%
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Got the receipt # and check the uscis status
: found that there are more than 40k application #s between Feb 1st and of
: Jan 5.
: 90% are 485, 765 and 131 applications.
: so there are 36k/3= 12k+ demand in Jan
|
w*******t
发帖数: 2459 | 4 悟空(老大)猜的...
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: how did you get 90%
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 5 Jan VB is from 03/2008 to 01/2009
Since it is holiday season, we can assume only 70% of PD within this this
time period can submit their 485 in Jan. There are 17k pending 485 between
these 9 months.
Feb Vb is from 01/2009 to 01/2010. There are 17k/9*12=23k roughly.
USCIS builds 40k demand this year(not including March VB). And they use 20k
visa number? only 20k left and EB2 non CI will continue to use the remaining
20k if 3012 doesn't pass.
There are 30k SO last year and Mr O said SO will be less this year.
I think USCIS does build up enough demand this year with more cases coming
in March..
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: low or high?
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 6 just random check case number, get some sample size hehe
【在 w*******t 的大作中提到】
: 悟空(老大)猜的...
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 7 one more think is that I can only check the case number until Jan 5. There
maybe hundreds of cases submitted before Jan 5. All my calculation is not
precise, just for an idea.
20k
remaining
coming
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Jan VB is from 03/2008 to 01/2009
: Since it is holiday season, we can assume only 70% of PD within this this
: time period can submit their 485 in Jan. There are 17k pending 485 between
: these 9 months.
: Feb Vb is from 01/2009 to 01/2010. There are 17k/9*12=23k roughly.
: USCIS builds 40k demand this year(not including March VB). And they use 20k
: visa number? only 20k left and EB2 non CI will continue to use the remaining
: 20k if 3012 doesn't pass.
: There are 30k SO last year and Mr O said SO will be less this year.
: I think USCIS does build up enough demand this year with more cases coming
|
m****o
发帖数: 4921 | |
u*******r
发帖数: 2855 | 9 good or bad?
20k
remaining
coming
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Jan VB is from 03/2008 to 01/2009
: Since it is holiday season, we can assume only 70% of PD within this this
: time period can submit their 485 in Jan. There are 17k pending 485 between
: these 9 months.
: Feb Vb is from 01/2009 to 01/2010. There are 17k/9*12=23k roughly.
: USCIS builds 40k demand this year(not including March VB). And they use 20k
: visa number? only 20k left and EB2 non CI will continue to use the remaining
: 20k if 3012 doesn't pass.
: There are 30k SO last year and Mr O said SO will be less this year.
: I think USCIS does build up enough demand this year with more cases coming
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 10 April VB moving to July 2010 is reasonable.Mr O may also move April VB to
Jan 2011 just in case SO is big or 3012 passes.
【在 u*******r 的大作中提到】
: good or bad?
:
: 20k
: remaining
: coming
|
|
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 11 预测拿卡时间吧
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: April VB moving to July 2010 is reasonable.Mr O may also move April VB to
: Jan 2011 just in case SO is big or 3012 passes.
|
u*******r
发帖数: 2855 | 12 good
but 3012....
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 预测拿卡时间吧
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 13 if no 3012, PD before July 2009 can get GC at the end of this year ba.
No idea how many cases in 2010. I heard there are huge number of perms
application in 2010.
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 预测拿卡时间吧
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 14 09 PD will be less than 10 PD.
20k
remaining
coming
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Jan VB is from 03/2008 to 01/2009
: Since it is holiday season, we can assume only 70% of PD within this this
: time period can submit their 485 in Jan. There are 17k pending 485 between
: these 9 months.
: Feb Vb is from 01/2009 to 01/2010. There are 17k/9*12=23k roughly.
: USCIS builds 40k demand this year(not including March VB). And they use 20k
: visa number? only 20k left and EB2 non CI will continue to use the remaining
: 20k if 3012 doesn't pass.
: There are 30k SO last year and Mr O said SO will be less this year.
: I think USCIS does build up enough demand this year with more cases coming
|
F****n
发帖数: 3271 | 15 Isn't the receipt # for the entire world?
A total of 12K 485 applications per month is quite low.
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Got the receipt # and check the uscis status
: found that there are more than 40k application #s between Feb 1st and of
: Jan 5.
: 90% are 485, 765 and 131 applications.
: so there are 36k/3= 12k+ demand in Jan
|
a**********r
发帖数: 1069 | 16 are those all for chinese or indian?
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Got the receipt # and check the uscis status
: found that there are more than 40k application #s between Feb 1st and of
: Jan 5.
: 90% are 485, 765 and 131 applications.
: so there are 36k/3= 12k+ demand in Jan
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 17 for all
【在 a**********r 的大作中提到】
: are those all for chinese or indian?
|
a**********r
发帖数: 1069 | 18 roughly, how many cases are for ROW per month? |
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 19 why July 2009?
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: if no 3012, PD before July 2009 can get GC at the end of this year ba.
: No idea how many cases in 2010. I heard there are huge number of perms
: application in 2010.
|
l*n
发帖数: 2590 | 20 别忘了每年有14万个EB名额，平均到每个月就是12000。另外，很个月1000多FB的申请
也是要占些号的。所以我觉得这个数字很正常。
最好是谁能写个script把里面485的总量算出来。 |
|
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 21 good points, I missed it.
So it make sense that VB can move to 2011
let us see how many cases submitted in Feb later .........
【在 l*n 的大作中提到】
: 别忘了每年有14万个EB名额，平均到每个月就是12000。另外，很个月1000多FB的申请
: 也是要占些号的。所以我觉得这个数字很正常。
: 最好是谁能写个script把里面485的总量算出来。
|
i****2
发帖数: 119 | 22 it's reasonalbe for poise to assume those cases are eb2ci as rows won't have
to submit theirs in any particular month.
the only questionalbe figure above would be how close 90% would be when
talking about actual i-485 cases. i'd assume a higher percentage as 10%
other type of cases (i.e., i140, etc.) seems high to me. but, again, nobody
would know. poise's calculation does look good.
【在 F****n 的大作中提到】
: Isn't the receipt # for the entire world?
: A total of 12K 485 applications per month is quite low.
|
F****n
发帖数: 3271 | 23 Right, if 12k / month for the entire world is real and it continues
throughout the year, EB2IC will be current soon no matter what.
【在 l*n 的大作中提到】
: 别忘了每年有14万个EB名额，平均到每个月就是12000。另外，很个月1000多FB的申请
: 也是要占些号的。所以我觉得这个数字很正常。
: 最好是谁能写个script把里面485的总量算出来。
|
s******t
发帖数: 926 | 24 1. Not every number is occupied.
2. 90% seems high, but not far off.
3. Most EB1/EB2ROW would submit 485/765/131/140 concurrently. The receipt
numbers are likely to be consecutive. You can estimate their demand by 140
hits with adjacent 485/131/765. For my limited sample, MOST 485/765/131
petitions are followed by a 140, so they won't be C/I demand.
4. Any I-765 for OPT?
5. Did you consider Nebraska Center?
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Got the receipt # and check the uscis status
: found that there are more than 40k application #s between Feb 1st and of
: Jan 5.
: 90% are 485, 765 and 131 applications.
: so there are 36k/3= 12k+ demand in Jan
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 25 I only checked the number beginning with src
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 1. Not every number is occupied.
: 2. 90% seems high, but not far off.
: 3. Most EB1/EB2ROW would submit 485/765/131/140 concurrently. The receipt
: numbers are likely to be consecutive. You can estimate their demand by 140
: hits with adjacent 485/131/765. For my limited sample, MOST 485/765/131
: petitions are followed by a 140, so they won't be C/I demand.
: 4. Any I-765 for OPT?
: 5. Did you consider Nebraska Center?
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 26 我的问题你也答一下吧
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: I only checked the number beginning with src
|
a**********r
发帖数: 1069 | 27 zan.
there is no accuracy at all.
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: I only checked the number beginning with src
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 28 guess haha
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: why July 2009?
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 29 你要是对了给你发大包子
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: guess haha
|
D****9
发帖数: 10889 | 30 I think it's NOT reasonalbe for poise to assume those cases are eb2ci as
rows won't have to submit theirs in any particular month.
EB1/EB2Row/EB3/EB4/EB5 will not stop submitting 485 when EB2IC advances
promptly. They are independent.
have
nobody
【在 i****2 的大作中提到】
: it's reasonalbe for poise to assume those cases are eb2ci as rows won't have
: to submit theirs in any particular month.
: the only questionalbe figure above would be how close 90% would be when
: talking about actual i-485 cases. i'd assume a higher percentage as 10%
: other type of cases (i.e., i140, etc.) seems high to me. but, again, nobody
: would know. poise's calculation does look good.
|
|
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 31
after june, I remember
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: if no 3012, PD before July 2009 can get GC at the end of this year ba.
: No idea how many cases in 2010. I heard there are huge number of perms
: application in 2010.
|
