p****l
发帖数: 489 | 1 http://www.murthy.com/2015/11/17/december-2015-visa-bulletin-of
December 2015 Visa Bulletin Official Insights and Predictions
November 17, 2015
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provides a monthly visa bulletin
explanation, through Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and
Reporting Division. This month, Mr. Oppenheim provides more details
regarding the predictions in the December 2015 Visa Bulletin, as well as
insights into the reasons for visa bulletin developments.
Final Action (FA) Cutoff Dates Only
The DOS information only addresses the changes in the FA cutoff dates. The
dates for filing (DF) cutoff dates are unchanged. Moreover, the U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is not accepting employment-
based filings in December under the DF cutoff dates.
India: Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)
The FA cutoff date for EB2 India advances by seven months in the December
2015 Visa Bulletin. This advancement is primarily the result of the
substantial rollback of this cutoff date at the end of the prior fiscal year
. Up to eight months of advancement in this category, per month, are
projected over the next several months in the DOS's visa bulletin
predictions. Note, however, that the eight-month projection is the maximum
amount of anticipated forward movement. At this time, the DOS believes that
the actual progress per month may be closer to four-to-six months.
One reason the DOS believes that the advancement will need to be slowed to
something less than eight months per month is that advancement generates
demand for visa numbers. Specifically, as EB2 advances, this generates
demand from what are known as EB3-to-EB2 "upgrades." The eight-month
advancement in EB2 will only be possible in the absence of anticipated
volumes of EB3 "upgrade" requests.
China: Employment-Based, Second and Third Preferences (EB2 and EB3)
The EB2 FA date for China does not change in the December 2015 Visa Bulletin
. The DOS expects this cutoff date to remain largely stagnant over the next
several months. The visa number usage in this category is expected to exceed
the target numbers for the first quarter of the current fiscal year. In
order to control this usage, the DOS will have to hold the FA cutoff date.
The FA cutoff date in EB3 China is slightly more favorable than the EB2
China cutoff date. This may motivate requests to downgrade from EB2 and,
thus, push demand from EB2 into EB3. This interplay between EB2 and EB3
China has occurred during the prior two fiscal years and ultimately balances
the demand between the categories.
Family-Based, Second Preference (FB2A and FB2B)
In fiscal year 2015, the DOS rapidly advanced the cutoff dates in FB2B,
which is for unmarried sons and daughters of permanent residents, age 21 or
older. The DOS reports that demand for visa numbers is starting to appear in
the FB2B category as the result of the movement of the cutoff dates.
In the FB2A category, which is for spouses and children of permanent
residents, the DOS reports that demand is low, despite advancement of the
cutoff dates. Therefore, the DOS expects advancement in this category to
continue during the coming months.
Impact of Visa Bulletin Changes
As has been widely discussed, the visa bulletin system changed radically as
of October 2015. The DOS reports that it is still too early to know whether
the addition of the DF chart will provide the desired insight into visa
number demand. The agency notes that the initial data does not reflect that
the DF dates utilized by the USCIS are revealing sufficient demand to be
meaningful. However, it is too early accurately assess this due to lag times
between the submission of I-485 applications and the data being reported by
the USCIS to the DOS.
Until the USCIS completes its review of an I-485 application - a process
that generally takes at least six months - the agency does not request a
visa number from the DOS. So, while the new system has allowed for some
additional adjustment-of-status (form I-485) filings over the past two
months, the DOS will not receive the related visa number requests before May
2016, at the earliest.
Conclusion
As always, the predictions provided by the DOS for cutoff date movement, and
explanations of the factors that govern this movement, are appreciated. It
is hoped that the DF system eventually will provide the intended
transparency to allow for more accurate predictions and reduce the need for
dramatic cutoff date corrections.
Copyright © 2015, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved |
c*******n
发帖数: 2629 | 2 EB2不动，EB3小进，然后有downgrade，最后两者趋向平衡 |
d*********4
发帖数: 409 | |
P*******G
发帖数: 75 | |
e******e
发帖数: 2530 | 5 这不是挺好的吗 当然这个favorable的差距是几个月，也许就像现在的2，3个月而已，
折腾降级提前2，3个月拿卡
【在 d*********4 的大作中提到】
: 奥本这已经开始公开鼓励中国降级了。。。
|
s*******n
发帖数: 4402 | 6 2013年的如果不降级可不是晚几个月的问题,是晚1-2年的问题。
2012年4月降级才是提前2，3个月。PD越靠后降级绿得越早。
昨天版上不少人预测3类是要大进，对2013年进门的这一批降级要快的多。
【在 e******e 的大作中提到】
: 这不是挺好的吗 当然这个favorable的差距是几个月，也许就像现在的2，3个月而已，
: 折腾降级提前2，3个月拿卡
|
p****l
发帖数: 489 | 7 Until the USCIS completes its review of an I-485 application - a process
that generally takes at least six months - the agency does not request a
visa number from the DOS. So, while the new system has allowed for some
additional adjustment-of-status (form I-485) filings over the past two
months, the DOS will not receive the related visa number requests before May
2016, at the earliest.
是说第二排期在六个月内（也就是到明年四月）USCIS review完影响之前大概都不会有
太大变化了？ |
i**********1
发帖数: 481 | 8 也就是说对于2013年的来说，最好还是降级？
【在 s*******n 的大作中提到】
: 2013年的如果不降级可不是晚几个月的问题,是晚1-2年的问题。
: 2012年4月降级才是提前2，3个月。PD越靠后降级绿得越早。
: 昨天版上不少人预测3类是要大进，对2013年进门的这一批降级要快的多。
|
l***l
发帖数: 2448 | 9 当然能将就降级。不然差的不是一年半载。
【在 i**********1 的大作中提到】
: 也就是说对于2013年的来说，最好还是降级？
|
i**********1
发帖数: 481 | 10 有的跟我律师扯皮了。这家伙一口咬定降级要重新办perm
【在 l***l 的大作中提到】
: 当然能将就降级。不然差的不是一年半载。
|
|
|
F*********u
发帖数: 12190 | 11 你485交了以后换工作了么？
【在 i**********1 的大作中提到】
: 有的跟我律师扯皮了。这家伙一口咬定降级要重新办perm
|
m*****1
发帖数: 1464 | |
i**********1
发帖数: 481 | 13 没换。。想换来着，没换成，就算了。。
【在 F*********u 的大作中提到】
: 你485交了以后换工作了么？
|
s****z
发帖数: 1501 | 14 降么？
【在 m*****1 的大作中提到】
: PD差7天还要被挡在门外半年？醉了
|
c******3
发帖数: 6509 | 15 不鼓励就没人降了？他只不过是说事实而已，由于升降级的存在，最后两类基本上持平
【在 d*********4 的大作中提到】
: 奥本这已经开始公开鼓励中国降级了。。。
|
B********n
发帖数: 12753 | |
X**J
发帖数: 466 | 17 有道理。 听说h1b extension 一直不批也是为了让大家pp, USCIS集资比奥本关心你们
降不降级合理多了。
【在 B********n 的大作中提到】
: 说明USCIS想众筹拿年终奖了
|
s**********1
发帖数: 4651 | 18
：PD差7天还要被挡在门外半年？醉了
我的差一天!!! |
s*******n
发帖数: 4402 | 19 搞笑了,人家是公办的好不好？干多干少钱是一样的，
可以什么都不干，但是不能多拿钱，集资不集资，和批卡的人没有关系。
【在 X**J 的大作中提到】
: 有道理。 听说h1b extension 一直不批也是为了让大家pp, USCIS集资比奥本关心你们
: 降不降级合理多了。
|
s*******n
发帖数: 4402 | 20 搞笑了，Budget都是先做好的，我估计有些费用比如培训，出差可能需要用这种额外收
入来补，年终奖绝对是搞笑了，所以放假前后是不干活的最好机会。
【在 B********n 的大作中提到】
: 说明USCIS想众筹拿年终奖了
|
h******a
发帖数: 167 | 21 要是已经file了两个140，然后今年早些时候已经用eb2的排期file 了485，现在排期又
退回去了。如果eb3排期到了，我需要做什么事情吗 |
B********n
发帖数: 12753 | |
