N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: NeverLearn (24K Bear - Got Silver?), 信区: Stock
标 题: TBonds put JPM under stress
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 9 12:41:38 2010, 美东)
(ZZ)
JPMorgan is by far the largest derivative player in the world and they are
the largest player in interest rate derivatives. Most of these are in the
field of interest rate swaps.
In simple terms, our hero JPMorgan, on orders from the Fed buys a trillions
of dollars of long bonds in the future and at the same time sells or shorts
trillions of dollars of short term money of say 30 days or 90 days also in
the future. The long bond was purchased at say a yield of3.4% to 4% and the
short term money was shorted at a yield of .05% per annum or roughly par.
The huge purchases of these swaps (buy long term bonds in the future and
short 90 day treasuries in the future) lowers the price of real treasury
bonds as this stimulates the purchase of these bonds at the present time.
This is why the bond vigilantes were nowhere to be seen in the states. It
will also explain why our camp knew it was impossible for interest rates to
rise as this would blow up JPMorgan.
Now we see that the long bond yield is rising which is putting much pressure
as losses mount on JPMorgan. They gain nothing from the short end as they
shorted at 100 cents on the dollar and that is today's price.
The real risk to JPMorgan is the speed of which long bond yields rise as
they cannot get out of their contracts. This will probably be the spark that
ignites inside a coal mine.
A yield of say 5% would create a 1.6% loss of over 640 billion dollars (they
state, I believe, a notional 90 trillion interest rate swaps so 45 trillion
on the long end and 45 trillion on the short end). That would blow up
JPMorgan and create havoc and collateral damage equal to a neutron bomb in
the financial area of Wall Street.
I hope this explains in simple terms how significant this is and I will now
report on this as the bond yields have been rising exponentially these past
few days. | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 2 Isn't JPMorgan already in bankruptcy because of their gigantic short
position in silver?
trillions
shorts
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: NeverLearn (24K Bear - Got Silver?), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: TBonds put JPM under stress
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 9 12:41:38 2010, 美东)
: (ZZ)
: JPMorgan is by far the largest derivative player in the world and they are
: the largest player in interest rate derivatives. Most of these are in the
: field of interest rate swaps.
: In simple terms, our hero JPMorgan, on orders from the Fed buys a trillions
: of dollars of long bonds in the future and at the same time sells or shorts
| p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 3 It should be 'futures', not 'future'.
And there is no 30-day money traded in the futures. If you are talking a
bout TBill futures in CME/CBOT, i can tell you there is no one trading t
hem.
also, the last time i checked our desk's position is 6pm today and i don
t find anything close to a 1 trillion at the long end. not even billions
.
so stop spreading rumors or you are just making yourself a big joke.
trillions
shorts
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: NeverLearn (24K Bear - Got Silver?), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: TBonds put JPM under stress
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 9 12:41:38 2010, 美东)
: (ZZ)
: JPMorgan is by far the largest derivative player in the world and they are
: the largest player in interest rate derivatives. Most of these are in the
: field of interest rate swaps.
: In simple terms, our hero JPMorgan, on orders from the Fed buys a trillions
: of dollars of long bonds in the future and at the same time sells or shorts
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4
No one cares what's going on in your minor league insignificant CME/CBOT
field, capisce? So don't jump out talking like a smartass pundit.
I'm talking about data from "Office of the Comptroller of the Currency"
where JPM has 60+ Ts in play. Go read their book to hopefully get a clue.
【在 p****e 的大作中提到】
: It should be 'futures', not 'future'.
: And there is no 30-day money traded in the futures. If you are talking a
: bout TBill futures in CME/CBOT, i can tell you there is no one trading t
: hem.
: also, the last time i checked our desk's position is 6pm today and i don
: t find anything close to a 1 trillion at the long end. not even billions
: .
: so stop spreading rumors or you are just making yourself a big joke.
:
: trillions
| p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 5 You dont have to care about CME or CBOT. But you were saying JPM is taki
ng curve flattening positions with futures: is there any bigger exchange
than CME/CBOT in the treasury futures market?
OCC meets with us regularly and it just cannot happen that JPM has 1 tri
llion position in the long bonds: the total asset on our book is about t
his number and you think OCC is an idiot?
If you get confused between prop position and position taken for our cli
ents, i can tell you that we hold all kinds of positions for our clients
, including many central banks in Asia and LatAm.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: No one cares what's going on in your minor league insignificant CME/CBOT
: field, capisce? So don't jump out talking like a smartass pundit.
: I'm talking about data from "Office of the Comptroller of the Currency"
: where JPM has 60+ Ts in play. Go read their book to hopefully get a clue.
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6
It's not about any publicly reported trading activity. It's the over the
counter derivatives that big banks are exempted from disclosing details.
Read the sample report below and learn.
http://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq210.pdf
【在 p****e 的大作中提到】
: You dont have to care about CME or CBOT. But you were saying JPM is taki
: ng curve flattening positions with futures: is there any bigger exchange
: than CME/CBOT in the treasury futures market?
: OCC meets with us regularly and it just cannot happen that JPM has 1 tri
: llion position in the long bonds: the total asset on our book is about t
: his number and you think OCC is an idiot?
: If you get confused between prop position and position taken for our cli
: ents, i can tell you that we hold all kinds of positions for our clients
: , including many central banks in Asia and LatAm.
| p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 7 total notionals of derivatives?
ok i see. lol.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: It's not about any publicly reported trading activity. It's the over the
: counter derivatives that big banks are exempted from disclosing details.
: Read the sample report below and learn.
: http://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq210.pdf
|
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