f*********d
发帖数: 3358 | 1 这个粮食安全的问题，要一提，二提，老老提。
在过去，对粮食安全最大的威胁是战争，战乱一起，你就是有钱也无处去买。
所以粮食应该是战略物资，对其安全一定要有适当的警惕性，不能轻视，更不能无视。
分田到户后，中国又恢复到了一家一户的小农经济，虽然满足了耕者有其田的愿望，但
其实是断了农业现代化的前路。
在目前的承包制下，农业现代化就是个镜中月，水中花，遥不可及。
撇开农业现代化不谈，就是目前的小农，也可以满足中国的粮食需要，如果在没有外力
干涉的话。
事实呢，那些外包厂，需要大量的农民工，这样就让大量的青壮年农民工离开土地，去
让那些外包企业享受了人口红利。
就是留在农村的人，种的也不一定是粮食。目前的粮食价格，虽然几经调整，但种地的
收益远没有那些农经产品的价格涨得快，种花草，种树木。。。，不管搞啥，只要是经
济作物，反正都比种粮食赚钱。
现在中国的知识分子作为食利阶层的一员，又牵线搭桥，把转基因粮食引入了中国，正
在那里鼓呀，吹呀，想把市场做大。
农民也没有那么高的觉悟，谁也不能要求农民继续做出牺牲，继续为改革保驾护航。等
着人家先富了，再来拉他们一把，这样的鬼话，骗不了他们。如果利益驱使，他们还会
种转基因作物的。
说到底，中国的粮食安全，包括务农人员问题，粮食收益问题，耕地保留问题，农业高
科技问题，但不含转基因，都不是农民能解决的，也决定不了的。 | k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | 2 美国拿粮食收割世界的时间应该快到了。
布局都布了10多年，差不多该收网了。
就等着天灾加把油了，一切具备了。
China to add to squeeze on world corn supply
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-add-squeeze-world-corn-0221
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Beijing and the influential U.S. agriculture
department may have overstated China's corn crop by as much as 14 percent,
pointing to higher imports from the world's second-largest consumer of the
grain that could squeeze already tightening global supplies.
If China plugs the gap between projected and actual domestic supply with
additional corn imports, it would drive up international prices already near
four-month highs. Wheat markets could feel the impact too if Beijing snaps
up the grain as a substitute to corn for animal feed.
"Many are skeptical over the corn output figure," said Li Qiang, a senior
analyst with JC Intelligence (JCI), an influential consultancy. "The
industry expected an output increase, but not by as much as the bureau says."
China's National Bureau of Statistics said that farms produced a record corn
crop in 2011 of 191.8 million tonnes. But enthusiastic local officials
often overstate the size of crops in China to impress central authorities
and win bigger subsidies.
A Reuters investigation based on assessments from some cooperatives, key
trading houses and JCI suggests that Beijing has overstated the crop size by
between 6.8 million tonnes and 24 million tonnes, the equivalent of between
12 days and 44 days of consumption.
The impact of tighter-than-expected supplies is already being felt in the
domestic market. Competition between local industry processors and state-
owned procurement agencies for supplies is pushing domestic prices higher.
State grain buyers are struggling to replenish depleted national stocks,
raising the risk the government will limit purchases by processors, whose
rapid expansion has been blamed by Beijing for threatening the country's
grains supply.
Strategic stocks are well below the government's comfort level after three
years in which Beijing has drawn them down to boost domestic supply and
dampen food prices driven higher by growing demand for meat from an
increasingly affluent population. Low stockpiles give Beijing little wriggle
room before it has to import.
The United States Department of Agriculture, whose figures international
traders rely on to gauge global demand and supply, estimates the record crop
plus imports of four million tonnes will meet China's demand this year.
But it may need much more to plug the supply shortfall caused by the crop
overestimate, bolstering a global corn market already being hampered by a
severe drought in agriculture powerhouses Brazil and Argentina.
Just two weeks ago, China bought 120,000 tonnes, it's first purchase since
the harvest was completed late last year.
Chicago Board of Trade benchmark corn prices hit their highest levels since
January this week as drought in agricultural powerhouses Brazil and
Argentina worried buyers, although the price is well off the highs of 2010
and 2011.
U.S. corn stocks are forecast by the U.S. agriculture department to shrink
this year to their smallest level in 16 years, reducing U.S. export
potential to meet China's needs.
Still, global wheat supplies are in a better position to take up some of the
slack. Major producer Australia is expecting record-high wheat output this
year, adding to bumper supplies from the Black Sea region.
World wheat stocks at the end of the 2011/12 season look set to eclipse the
previous record set more than a decade ago, according to the International
Grains Council (IGC), which raised its forecast for production to an all-
time high.
That will encourage China to buy more wheat and only take corn when prices
dip or look relatively cheap.
"They are smart buyers so they will be very opportunistic, choosing the
right time to buy," said Adam Davis, a senior commodity analyst at Merricks
Capital in Melbourne.
"We see year-on-year increase in corn imports, just as we did with soybean
imports."
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
China corn yields, acreage: http://link.reuters.com/tet76s
Corn versus soy imports: http://link.reuters.com/xet76s
China pork production: http://link.reuters.com/set76s
Top corn importers, exporters: http://r.reuters.com/cav42s
China-Argentina pact to heat up competition for U.S. corn:
Daily grain market wrap:
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
HOW MUCH LESS?
The government's subsidy policy has led farmers to increase acreage
dedicated to corn and grow less soybeans, so a rise in output could be
expected.
But JCI estimates China's corn crop at 168 million tonnes, close to 24
million tonnes lower than the official data. JCI was the first to challenge
the high official corn crop estimates in 2009, and the consultancy's
skepticism was borne out by China's 2010 imports.
Official think-tank China National Grain and Oils Information Centre puts
the harvest at 185 million tonnes, more than 6 million tonnes below the
official estimate.
Some traders from state-owned grains trading houses pegged output at about
180 million tonnes.
China's officials say it has enough corn reserves and will not need to
import large quantities this year. But traders are skeptical, arguing the
officials are trying to talk prices down ahead of a shopping spree.
The growing realization that domestic corn supplies are tighter than
previously thought is driving prices higher. Farmers have held on to their
grain in expectation prices will rise more.
Physical corn prices at Dalian, China's largest grains port, have risen to 2
,400 yuan a tonne, the highest since October and edging towards the record
of 2,480 a tonne reached before the harvest started in October.
"Corn processors have been raising their purchase prices because farmers are
not selling," said Zheng Guichen, deputy general manager with Dacheng Group
, the country's top corn processor based in Jilin province in the northeast
corn belt.
"We believe farmers are holding more than half of their harvest here in
Jilin as they are in no rush to sell."
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION?
China does not publish its inventory figures. But traders estimate that it
has 10 million tonnes of stocks, which is less than a month of consumption
and far less than the three months of consumption Beijing considers ideal.
Sinograin, which manages the state grains reserves, has offered to buy grain
at about 10 percent to 20 percent below market to replenish stocks.
Official data shows the government has sold about 55 million tonnes of
reserves since 2009 to damp down local prices.
With farmers holding out for higher prices, sources said Sinograin has
fallen well short of its plan to buy 10-12 million tonnes of corn by the end
of January. They estimate it has not managed to secure any significant
volume since the stockpiling campaign started in mid-December.
The risk for industrial processors is that the government will step in, like
it did in 2011, and order them to stop buying to make way for state reserve
purchases.
Aware of its longer-term import needs, China is increasing its supply
sources, having relied on U.S. corn imports so far.
It signed a trade pact earlier this month with Argentina, the world's second
-largest exporter, and suppliers in the Black Sea grain belt are looking at
sales to China for the first time.
"China is a tough market, we have not sold anything to it as yet, but there
may be opportunity in the future," said Andrew Druzyaka, an official of the
State Food and Grain Corp of Ukraine, at a conference in Singapore last
month.
APPETITE
China is widely expected to dominate the global corn trade in the years
ahead after becoming a net importer just three years ago. Many analysts see
the rise in corn imports mirroring the quick rise in soy imports that have
made China the top soy importer.
Imports of 3.77 million tonnes of corn in 2011 were the highest since 1993-
1994. China will quadruple its purchases of corn, the U.S. agriculture
department said in a 10-year outlook.
China's grain output is failing to keep pace with demand because of the
rapid expansion of its livestock industry, which is quickly turning from
backyard farms to an organized industry of large modern complexes that
require more corn to ensure steady supplies.
To keep pace, the country's largest corn consumer, New Hope Group, says
Beijing should free up imports of grain for animals and redefine the country
's grain security policy by only placing restrictions on imports for human
consumption.
(Editing by Neil Fullick and Simon Webb) | r******t
发帖数: 8967 | 3 有核弹在，朝鲜能挖洞你不能？
【在 k*********u 的大作中提到】
: 美国拿粮食收割世界的时间应该快到了。
: 布局都布了10多年，差不多该收网了。
: 就等着天灾加把油了，一切具备了。
: China to add to squeeze on world corn supply
: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-add-squeeze-world-corn-0221
: BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Beijing and the influential U.S. agriculture
: department may have overstated China's corn crop by as much as 14 percent,
: pointing to higher imports from the world's second-largest consumer of the
: grain that could squeeze already tightening global supplies.
: If China plugs the gap between projected and actual domestic supply with
| c******o
发帖数: 4751 | 4 早就完蛋了啦。现在才想起粮食安全。
大豆已经完蛋啦，榨油企业也完蛋啦。玉米快要完蛋了，蔬菜种子快要完蛋了。。。
还有啥啊？水稻还要用转基因的了，到现在也说不清楚专利是谁的。 | y*****n
发帖数: 11251 | 5 不用保证什么粮食安全，中国历史造就排演多次了。中国粮食安全，第一保证不了，第
二到时候老百姓会自己解决，解决的办法就是：人相食。中国人口这么多不是白来的。
【在 f*********d 的大作中提到】
: 这个粮食安全的问题，要一提，二提，老老提。
: 在过去，对粮食安全最大的威胁是战争，战乱一起，你就是有钱也无处去买。
: 所以粮食应该是战略物资，对其安全一定要有适当的警惕性，不能轻视，更不能无视。
: 分田到户后，中国又恢复到了一家一户的小农经济，虽然满足了耕者有其田的愿望，但
: 其实是断了农业现代化的前路。
: 在目前的承包制下，农业现代化就是个镜中月，水中花，遥不可及。
: 撇开农业现代化不谈，就是目前的小农，也可以满足中国的粮食需要，如果在没有外力
: 干涉的话。
: 事实呢，那些外包厂，需要大量的农民工，这样就让大量的青壮年农民工离开土地，去
: 让那些外包企业享受了人口红利。
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