m******k
发帖数: 2390 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: meshwork (bear), 信区: Stock
标 题: offshore Yuan dropped 2.5% in one day
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 23 10:03:19 2011, 美东)
rt
trading at 6.49 yuan to the dollar late Friday offshore, compared with 6.3889 yuan onshore. | m******k
发帖数: 2390 | 2 虽然今天只是个例外，大部分的下降是因为speculation，但是也潜在的反映了投资者
对元和美元的心态
之前我说了国内房价绝对值不会下降，但是相对（相对于其他货币）价值会下降。这次
只是外汇市场的一个短期调整，但是以后会越来越多的。
所以在有办法转换美元和rmb的海龟，可以购买property在国内，适当的时候卖出(5
yrs is a good mark)赚取profit
at 5 yrs mark
example 2" (highest possiblility)
house absolute value unchanged or increased, Yuan appreaicate (against USD),
you win.
example 1: (somewhat possible)
house absolute value in Yuan increased, Yuan remains the same, you win.
example 3": (high possible)
house absolute value dropped, but the downside risk covered by yuan
appareiciation, you stay put
example 4": (least possile)
house absolute value dropped, and yuan remains the same or depprciate, you
lose
==========
in a long run (over 10 to 20 yrs)
1. most likely:
house absolute value increased, Yuan deppreciate a lot. if you do not sell
your property and convert it to other currency or foreign properties, you
lose a lot.
2. somewhat likely
house absolute value collapse, Yuan deppreciate. A "Doublue dip", again bad
for you.
3. unlikely but possible
house absolute value unchanged or increased, Yuan appreciate.
3889 yuan onshore.
【在 m******k 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: meshwork (bear), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: offshore Yuan dropped 2.5% in one day
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 23 10:03:19 2011, 美东)
: rt
: trading at 6.49 yuan to the dollar late Friday offshore, compared with 6.3889 yuan onshore.
| w******i
发帖数: 503 | 3 the probability that the probabilities you assigned to each scenario are
correct is low...
),
【在 m******k 的大作中提到】
: 虽然今天只是个例外，大部分的下降是因为speculation，但是也潜在的反映了投资者
: 对元和美元的心态
: 之前我说了国内房价绝对值不会下降，但是相对（相对于其他货币）价值会下降。这次
: 只是外汇市场的一个短期调整，但是以后会越来越多的。
: 所以在有办法转换美元和rmb的海龟，可以购买property在国内，适当的时候卖出(5
: yrs is a good mark)赚取profit
: at 5 yrs mark
: example 2" (highest possiblility)
: house absolute value unchanged or increased, Yuan appreaicate (against USD),
: you win.
| m******k
发帖数: 2390 | 4 不管对不对，just a warning that RBM will appreciate in a short-term and
depreciate in a long-term.
property absolute value will keep going up in RMB in the long-term, faster
than the long-term bond rate, in the long-term.
所以average 海龟的要考虑好这点。
Exceptions are Winners, they don't need to care about this.
【在 w******i 的大作中提到】
: the probability that the probabilities you assigned to each scenario are
: correct is low...
:
: ),
|
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