L*******h
发帖数: 126 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Home_Invest 俱乐部 】
发信人: LandWatch (*土土*上神*), 信区: Home_Invest
标 题: 湾区30年房屋价值趋势和周期
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Mar 23 14:24:47 2017, 美东)
1. Typical 地产上涨周期是 5-8年 下调周期 3-4年
2. Typical 经济周期 上涨幅度 70%-100% ， 下调幅度 ~10% （ impact on real
estate is secondary ）
08年 次贷危机下调 27%， ( impact on real estate is Primary )
3. Dont Guess the top ，
4. 如果自住房，投资周期> 12年， 房屋投资是always的better choice vs Rent
| b****a
发帖数: 345 | | L*******h
发帖数: 126 | 3 SPY 取200 day moving average 已经很接近吧
湾区的real estate market 基本上不会比SPY差
和stock market的区别是 ： liquid ability , Variance, Volatility , Tax
Benefit, 杠杆~
这个问题很大， 可以另写一个长篇了
【在 b****a 的大作中提到】
: 和SPY比怎么样？
| b*****3
发帖数: 48 | 4 你这个上面清楚低写着“high tier homes", 这篇文章我读过很多很多遍了。高低端市
场的走势是不一样的。
湾区是美国最volatile的market之一 | r********k
发帖数: 258 | 5 The cost of buying SPY is very low comparing owning and selling houses.
I said timing is very important in investing in housing is that how low and
how much you can borrow Bank money. If you can borrow 1M at 3% from the bank
, and makes returns of 7% minust costs, you make 4% from borrowed money of
1M. Cost of 1M to maintain a house is 2% each year, and selling is 6% over
the time to own the house.
To make money, you have to borrow money at low rate and buy it at the bottom
of the time frame you own the house, and sell it at the top from the time
frame.
Otherwise, you generated income for realtors.
【在 b****a 的大作中提到】
: 和SPY比怎么样？
| L*******h
发帖数: 126 | 6 Then you need read ONE MORE Time.
"High tier homes" -- predominate SF, SAN MATEO, Marine etc counties,
Bay Area are "high tier homes’
【在 b*****3 的大作中提到】
: 你这个上面清楚低写着“high tier homes", 这篇文章我读过很多很多遍了。高低端市
: 场的走势是不一样的。
: 湾区是美国最volatile的market之一
| j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 7 You forget you are using 200k capital. So the return is leveraged. A
moderate 10% rise can become 50% return before expense.
and
bank
bottom
【在 r********k 的大作中提到】
: The cost of buying SPY is very low comparing owning and selling houses.
: I said timing is very important in investing in housing is that how low and
: how much you can borrow Bank money. If you can borrow 1M at 3% from the bank
: , and makes returns of 7% minust costs, you make 4% from borrowed money of
: 1M. Cost of 1M to maintain a house is 2% each year, and selling is 6% over
: the time to own the house.
: To make money, you have to borrow money at low rate and buy it at the bottom
: of the time frame you own the house, and sell it at the top from the time
: frame.
: Otherwise, you generated income for realtors.
| j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 8 Probably just mean SFH
【在 L*******h 的大作中提到】
: Then you need read ONE MORE Time.
: "High tier homes" -- predominate SF, SAN MATEO, Marine etc counties,
: Bay Area are "high tier homes’
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