M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 1 SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
SPY, 20081020, 98.6900, -8.9523, -9.1
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
DIA, 20081020, 92.9000, -8.3296, -9.0
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
QQQQ, 20081020, 33.2200, -2.9920, -9.0 | M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 2 SPY, DIA and QQQQ are all very close in terms of readings.
Bear in mind that this is a pre-election, political rally, with significant
artificial price-lift.
The market appears very much over-bought, however, so it may not look good (
for the bulls) right after the election, as price-lift is no longer useful.
Always scale in and scale out, whether bearish or bullish, that way you don'
t miss the ride and can also average down your cost if prices get even more
extreme (i.e. favorable) before reve | M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 3 The following message was posted on Saturday evening (发信站: BBS 未名空间站
(Sat Nov 1 19:12:24 2008) but somehow disappeared.
So I am posting it once more.
最新的预测显示在星期五(20081031)，股市遭受强力的人为干预，原先预期的短期百
分之十二跌幅，突然一天内锐减几乎三分之二。
这种情况很少见，但无论如何，对熊有利的因素几乎已不存在。短期市场下跌已无把
握，即使跌，幅度也有限，约百分之四到五。短期低风险的卖空机会需要的是百分之减
九或更减。
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
QQQQ, 20081031, 33.0700, -1.5529, -4.7 <-= 强力人为干预。 | M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 4
SPY，DIA 的情况也一样
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
SPY, 20081031, 97.1100, -4.1045, -4.2 <-= 强力人为干预。
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
DIA, 20081031, 93.6900, -4.2612, -4.5 <-= 强力人为干预。
Any and all information presented herein are for your information (FYI) only
. They are not specific recommendations or advice, and must not be construed
as such. Stock and option markets involve high risk and total wipe-out of
capital is possible. Be sure to
【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】
: The following message was posted on Saturday evening (发信站: BBS 未名空间站
: (Sat Nov 1 19:12:24 2008) but somehow disappeared.
: So I am posting it once more.
:
: 最新的预测显示在星期五(20081031)，股市遭受强力的人为干预，原先预期的短期百
: 分之十二跌幅，突然一天内锐减几乎三分之二。
: 这种情况很少见，但无论如何，对熊有利的因素几乎已不存在。短期市场下跌已无把
: 握，即使跌，幅度也有限，约百分之四到五。短期低风险的卖空机会需要的是百分之减
: 九或更减。
: SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
| M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 5 股市还未到更超买(OverBought, i.e. -9% or thereabouts), 今天就提早开始大跌。
除非有强力人为因素，否则将意味市场实际情况比预测的还熊。
但既然跌了，根据过去情形，要到百分之加六以上(i.e. +6% or better)才有比较安全
的反弹。
所以心中估计目前市场可能还会再跌一两天，但这只是暂时的猜测，还要看最新的预测
给出的结果是如何，之后才会比较了解未来情况。
【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】
:
: SPY，DIA 的情况也一样
: SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
: SPY, 20081031, 97.1100, -4.1045, -4.2 <-= 强力人为干预。
: SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
: DIA, 20081031, 93.6900, -4.2612, -4.5 <-= 强力人为干预。
: Any and all information presented herein are for your information (FYI) only
: . They are not specific recommendations or advice, and must not be construed
: as such. Stock and option markets involve high risk and total wipe-out of
: capital is possible. Be sure to
| M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 6
Politically speaking, you're right and I thought about that also.
But I was referring to the normal extreme zones of the forecast
readings.
The numbers did not reach there.
Not that I was surprised, since the market was overbought, though
certainly not extremely so, based on last night's forecasts, which
indicated a magnitude of 3.5 to 5% decline in the event of a price
decline. I would have preferred the percent to be closer to -9 or
better, for a good short-term sell signal.
If the sell-off |
|
