j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 1 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/stocks-less-risky-think
As of this morning we were discussing the wild ride stocks and commodities
have been on during 2011, with the S&P trading in a greater than 27% range,
yet going nowhere since last year at this time. According to friend of
Breakout, Jim Paulsen, the sense that the market is crazier than ever is
right, but misses the point of successful investing.
Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, has run
the numbers from the last hundred years, using the Dow Jones Industrial
Average as his market proxy. According to his work, the magnitude of the
daily fluctuations rivals only the volatility seen during the Great
Depression.
"Traders therefore, that care about day to day marks are facing the highest
risk they've ever seen," Paulsen explains. However, "volatility over longer
periods of time is no different in recent years than it's been throughout
the post-war era."
Paulsen's conclusion is that long-term investors have much less to be afraid
than day traders. The problem is that the noise and activity of the near-
term is masking a risk/reward setup, therefore those with a long-term
horizon could be overestimating their risk exposure.
"There's been a lot of good things going on while the market's been flat,"
says Paulsen. The affable Minnesotan notes that stocks are trading at 1/3
the multiple of 1998, in effect consolidating the gains from the '82- '07
bull move and becoming cheaper in the process.
Regarding the obvious risks (global, economic or otherwise), Paulsen says
they're market positives. "Bull markets are not about an absence of problems
," he notes. "Bull markets, in many cases, are when the fear is far in
excess of the reality on the ground."
Only time will tell just how accurate the public's general sense of doom may
be. In the meantime, Paulsen says investors need to avoid letting the
headlines lead to rash decision making.
"Make sure you still have a respectable long-term asset allocation in place
and you shouldn't violate that," he advises, at least not in response to the
news of the day. For those of a more tweaky nature "sometimes the best
thing to do is just don't check but maybe once a month. If you do you'll
find out it's been a boring year."
How about you? Has 2011 bored you to tears are scared you to death? Are you
obsessing over the tape or sitting idle while the world figures things out
for itself? Let us know in space below or via our Facebook page. |
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