t***l
发帖数: 3644 | 1 反弹力度有点大哟。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器 | r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 2 屁股滋啦。
【在 t***l 的大作中提到】
: 反弹力度有点大哟。
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
| o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 3 早春的菊花很亮鹂.
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: 屁股滋啦。
| r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 4 老师，俺还在等你开门泥!
【在 o*******w 的大作中提到】
: 早春的菊花很亮鹂.
| o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 5 你得敲门.
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: 老师，俺还在等你开门泥!
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 6 熊熊的烧材没了
希腊 PSI 已经到60%以上了
Hard default has been avoided
【在 t***l 的大作中提到】
: 反弹力度有点大哟。
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
| r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 7 says who?
minimum target 75%, ideally, 90%
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 熊熊的烧材没了
: 希腊 PSI 已经到60%以上了
: Hard default has been avoided
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 8 90% is "NO default" at all (i.e., CDS not be triggered at all)
This is different from "Hard default" ( i.e., 80% hair cut for bonds,
dramatically loss for CDS writers, ...)
Market is only afraid of "Hard default"
Anyway, we will see the results today , the chance for "Hard default" is
very very low now
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: says who?
: minimum target 75%, ideally, 90%
| s******n
发帖数: 6806 | 9 这是目前为止60%,3PM eastern是 deadline
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: says who?
: minimum target 75%, ideally, 90%
| r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 10 Get some commonsense, would ya?
It doesn't matter 90%, 91%, or 99.99% as long as there IS one bond holder
who's not willing to participate in the bond swap. He may be applied the
collective action clause, but it is against his will and he can and probably
will challenge it in court. CDS WILL BE triggered on him.
Thinking in a different way: If there is no possible good out of holding out
, why would they hold out in the first place?
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 90% is "NO default" at all (i.e., CDS not be triggered at all)
: This is different from "Hard default" ( i.e., 80% hair cut for bonds,
: dramatically loss for CDS writers, ...)
: Market is only afraid of "Hard default"
: Anyway, we will see the results today , the chance for "Hard default" is
: very very low now
| | | u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 11 lol
why don't you explain your "commonsense" on the "collective action clause"?
Yes, there will always be more than 0.01% bond holder refused to participate
in the bond swap. Does it matter? You can not force to trigger CDS just
because you don't want to do the swap your 0.01% bonds.
By the way, you can go straight ahead to short the market on the opening if
you believe those 0.01% bond holder could force Greek to do a "hard default"
(i.e., all bond holders will not get a swap, neither a full principle
payment)
probably
out
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: Get some commonsense, would ya?
: It doesn't matter 90%, 91%, or 99.99% as long as there IS one bond holder
: who's not willing to participate in the bond swap. He may be applied the
: collective action clause, but it is against his will and he can and probably
: will challenge it in court. CDS WILL BE triggered on him.
: Thinking in a different way: If there is no possible good out of holding out
: , why would they hold out in the first place?
| r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 12 Sold my YM at 12940. In short now.
LOL
By the way, you are a typical bag holder. Having fun holding bags.
clause"?
participate
just
opening
if
default"
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: lol
: why don't you explain your "commonsense" on the "collective action clause"?
: Yes, there will always be more than 0.01% bond holder refused to participate
: in the bond swap. Does it matter? You can not force to trigger CDS just
: because you don't want to do the swap your 0.01% bonds.
: By the way, you can go straight ahead to short the market on the opening if
: you believe those 0.01% bond holder could force Greek to do a "hard default"
: (i.e., all bond holders will not get a swap, neither a full principle
: payment)
:
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 13 浆糊, 看最终结果吧:
Investors with 95.7 percent of Greece’s privately held bonds will
participate in the swap after so-called collective action clauses are
triggered, the Finance Ministry said. Bondholders tendered 152 billion euros
of Greek-law bonds, or 85.8 percent, and 20 billion euros of foreign-law
debt. Greece extended its offer to holders of non-Greek law bonds to March
23, after which sweeteners will no longer be available
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greece-debt-swap-tops-
你的"common sense" 实在不怎么样,投资/投机并不完全是看图,呵呵
good luck with your trading :)
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: Sold my YM at 12940. In short now.
: LOL
: By the way, you are a typical bag holder. Having fun holding bags.
:
: clause"?
: participate
: just
: opening
: if
: default"
| p********o
发帖数: 8012 | 14 搞到最后变成了我还你一点钱回来你这个债主还要感谢我的努力，欢迎下次光临，呵呵
。资本主义真操蛋。
债主就应该要求全额，哪怕拖几十年都可以。希腊猪就应该被发配为奴几十年。到最后
居然他们又舒坦了，这国债谁爱买去买好了。
euros
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 浆糊, 看最终结果吧:
: Investors with 95.7 percent of Greece’s privately held bonds will
: participate in the swap after so-called collective action clauses are
: triggered, the Finance Ministry said. Bondholders tendered 152 billion euros
: of Greek-law bonds, or 85.8 percent, and 20 billion euros of foreign-law
: debt. Greece extended its offer to holders of non-Greek law bonds to March
: 23, after which sweeteners will no longer be available
: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greece-debt-swap-tops-
: 你的"common sense" 实在不怎么样,投资/投机并不完全是看图,呵呵
: good luck with your trading :)
| r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 15 愚夫呢，忙活一天，俺来回复你一下。
人家ISDA欧洲中部时间一点开会研究CDS是否触发，你已经自己就决定了。你太牛了!
95.7% 那是CAC之后的”PSI“。PSI本身是85.7%. Credit Event触发。LOL!
你就别操心俺的FA/TA，什么投机投资啦。操得不是个心。阴阳怪气的。很奇怪。
这个看得懂吧？
“A total 4,323 credit-default swap contracts may now be settled after
ISDA’s determinations committee ruled the use of CACs is a restructuring
credit event..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greek-debt-deal-might-
3-billion-of-default-swaps-under-isda-rules.html
euros
law
March
level-to-trigger-forced-bondholder-participation.html
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 浆糊, 看最终结果吧:
: Investors with 95.7 percent of Greece’s privately held bonds will
: participate in the swap after so-called collective action clauses are
: triggered, the Finance Ministry said. Bondholders tendered 152 billion euros
: of Greek-law bonds, or 85.8 percent, and 20 billion euros of foreign-law
: debt. Greece extended its offer to holders of non-Greek law bonds to March
: 23, after which sweeteners will no longer be available
: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greece-debt-swap-tops-
: 你的"common sense" 实在不怎么样,投资/投机并不完全是看图,呵呵
: good luck with your trading :)
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 16 咳,浆糊,你还要争.
直接点明你的错吧, 现在你也承认CDS是否触发应该由"ISDA 开会研究决定"了吧, 不是
你说的一个bond holder 就可以触发的了吧.
看看你下面的"common sense":
"
It doesn't matter 90%, 91%, or 99.99% as long as there IS one bond holder
who's not willing to participate in the bond swap. He may be applied the
collective action clause, but it is against his will and he can and probably
will challenge it in court. CDS WILL BE triggered on him.
"
另外打你回去重新看看新闻, 问一下自己他们为什么要决定触发CDS? 触发有什么好处,
有什么坏处.
在昨天最后participation情况下, 根据法律,他们是可以选择触发, 也可以选择不触发
的.
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: 愚夫呢，忙活一天，俺来回复你一下。
: 人家ISDA欧洲中部时间一点开会研究CDS是否触发，你已经自己就决定了。你太牛了!
: 95.7% 那是CAC之后的”PSI“。PSI本身是85.7%. Credit Event触发。LOL!
: 你就别操心俺的FA/TA，什么投机投资啦。操得不是个心。阴阳怪气的。很奇怪。
: 这个看得懂吧？
: “A total 4,323 credit-default swap contracts may now be settled after
: ISDA’s determinations committee ruled the use of CACs is a restructuring
: credit event..."
: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greek-debt-deal-might-
: 3-billion-of-default-swaps-under-isda-rules.html
| r******9
发帖数: 2632 | 17 愚人同志，先说我的问题吧。
你引用的我的原话，哪里有写我不认为CDS触发要ISDA定夺？! 我当然知道这个。
我陈述的是我对CDS是default不default的理解。当然仅仅是我的opinion, ISDA咋裁决
，我当然没法知道。不要说我不知道，事前谁也没法确定。这不妨碍有个opinion,有个
"common sense" 。 ISDA对此事的裁决，并不与我讲的冲突。至于要完全验证我的说法
，那么等以后依次出现” 90%, 91%, or 99.99%“的个案。这此裁定的对象个案是85.7
的Participation rate. 算是部分映证我讲的Case 90%, 91%. 我估计你看不懂。逻辑
学太差。
来说说你吧，你看俺都自我剖析了，你就不要避重就轻了吧。你一大早发出那个帖子，兴
冲冲的，想说明什么呢？ 重要裁决CET 1点开始，事前很多人"common sense"是要触发
，要declare credit event. 早晨明显没有翻底牌呢，你兴奋得太早了吧。
holder
the
probably
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 咳,浆糊,你还要争.
: 直接点明你的错吧, 现在你也承认CDS是否触发应该由"ISDA 开会研究决定"了吧, 不是
: 你说的一个bond holder 就可以触发的了吧.
: 看看你下面的"common sense":
: "
: It doesn't matter 90%, 91%, or 99.99% as long as there IS one bond holder
: who's not willing to participate in the bond swap. He may be applied the
: collective action clause, but it is against his will and he can and probably
: will challenge it in court. CDS WILL BE triggered on him.
: "
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 18 rookie 同志, 那我也说说我的问题吧,呵呵
如果像你这么说的,那我们的观点其实没有那么大的差别.
首先, 周二时只有20% participation rate 也把我吓一跳, 因为 participation rate
低的话,裁决CDS 触发的概率就会很大,这是周二股市大跌的主要原因. 一般常识是90%
以上的话, 裁决CDS 触发的概率就很小. 所以周二开始就觉得周三周四大盘走向将主
要被participation rate决定.
我们的分歧在于
＊ 你觉得会有很多hold out ( i.e. participation rate 会很低）
＊ 我觉得hold out不会太多( i.e. participation rate 会比较高）
你在贴子里说过你的理由：
*只要有一个hold out 就可以触发cds
*Hold out 最后肯定会有很多好处，所以你觉得会有很多hold out
我和你意见完全相反. 原因很简单, Hold out自己并不能自己要求触发cds, CAC 的推
出其实就是要阻止你的那种思想的,所以大部分bond holder 将不得不参与到债务重组
中来(这在美国其实是很common 的). 大家都不参与, 最后只能是greek 完全default,
同时导致很多其他default ( 雷曼是前例), 大家一起死.
基于以上不同，估计我们的操作也截然相反， 我不段加仓long 直到昨天下午, 你可
能在加仓short.
早上发帖回你的原因是因为最后结果早上刚出来， 算是对我们两关于hold out 多不
多的一个最后裁定数据结果.
当然,其实这结果昨天下午市场就已经预期到了.
其实说来说去, 这都是那个"common sense" 引起的, 其实观点分歧很正常, 市场上永
远都会有两种截然不同观点的.
Greek 事件已经结束, 希望我们的争执也到此为止,呵呵
good luck with your trading.
.7
，兴
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: 愚人同志，先说我的问题吧。
: 你引用的我的原话，哪里有写我不认为CDS触发要ISDA定夺？! 我当然知道这个。
: 我陈述的是我对CDS是default不default的理解。当然仅仅是我的opinion, ISDA咋裁决
: ，我当然没法知道。不要说我不知道，事前谁也没法确定。这不妨碍有个opinion,有个
: "common sense" 。 ISDA对此事的裁决，并不与我讲的冲突。至于要完全验证我的说法
: ，那么等以后依次出现” 90%, 91%, or 99.99%“的个案。这此裁定的对象个案是85.7
: 的Participation rate. 算是部分映证我讲的Case 90%, 91%. 我估计你看不懂。逻辑
: 学太差。
: 来说说你吧，你看俺都自我剖析了，你就不要避重就轻了吧。你一大早发出那个帖子，兴
: 冲冲的，想说明什么呢？ 重要裁决CET 1点开始，事前很多人"common sense"是要触发
|
|
