f********s
发帖数: 658 | 1 Key takeaways:
1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
increase
4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
timing is uncertain
FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
My thoughts:
1. There is little chance that the US economy will revert course in the near
future.
2. In Year 2017, Expected Return S&P 500 Return = Expected Dividend Yield –
Expected percent change in # of shares outstanding + expected inflation
rate + expected real earnings growth rate + change in P/E
= 2.11% - 0 +1.9%+ 5% + 0
= 9%
3.While the bond yield will keep rising, it's not good idea to invest in
bonds
with long duration. |
l***e
发帖数: 894 | 2 Thanks for sharing.
to
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Key takeaways:
: 1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
: higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
: 2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
: 3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
: increase
: 4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
: timing is uncertain
: FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
: My thoughts:
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 3 差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。 |
b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 4 Why bother to choose stock? Just triple leverage S&P will be 27% if her
conclusion is correct.
[在 noregrets (风满袖) 的大作中提到：]
:差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
:场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。 |
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 5 这不都是猜吗，世界这么大，鬼知道明天会发生什么
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: Why bother to choose stock? Just triple leverage S&P will be 27% if her
: conclusion is correct.
: [在 noregrets (风满袖) 的大作中提到：]
: :差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
: :场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。
|
s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 6 今后一段时间，FED的影响远小于川普政策的影响了。一旦trade war开打，短期美国经
济肯定是doom的。 |
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 7 Key takeaways:
1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
increase
4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
timing is uncertain
FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
My thoughts:
1. There is little chance that the US economy will revert course in the near
future.
2. In Year 2017, Expected Return S&P 500 Return = Expected Dividend Yield –
Expected percent change in # of shares outstanding + expected inflation
rate + expected real earnings growth rate + change in P/E
= 2.11% - 0 +1.9%+ 5% + 0
= 9%
3.While the bond yield will keep rising, it's not good idea to invest in
bonds
with long duration. |
l***e
发帖数: 894 | 8 Thanks for sharing.
to
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Key takeaways:
: 1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
: higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
: 2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
: 3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
: increase
: 4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
: timing is uncertain
: FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
: My thoughts:
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 9 差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。 |
b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 10 Why bother to choose stock? Just triple leverage S&P will be 27% if her
conclusion is correct.
[在 noregrets (风满袖) 的大作中提到：]
:差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
:场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。 |
|
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 11 这不都是猜吗，世界这么大，鬼知道明天会发生什么
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: Why bother to choose stock? Just triple leverage S&P will be 27% if her
: conclusion is correct.
: [在 noregrets (风满袖) 的大作中提到：]
: :差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
: :场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。
|
s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 12 今后一段时间，FED的影响远小于川普政策的影响了。一旦trade war开打，短期美国经
济肯定是doom的。 |
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 13 现在回顾我的新年预期，根据一季度的公司年报还有最新的各项数据，预期今年的SP
500回报约为2.21 2.4 6 2=12.6% |
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 14 Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten even if
economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch + fed tightening
combo. That is when real correction happens.
to
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Key takeaways:
: 1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
: higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
: 2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
: 3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
: increase
: 4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
: timing is uncertain
: FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
: My thoughts:
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | |
b*********s
发帖数: 3863 | 16 thanks for sharing!
Besides the geopolitical risk, any mention of the car loan and student loan
risk?
to
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Key takeaways:
: 1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
: higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
: 2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
: 3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
: increase
: 4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
: timing is uncertain
: FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
: My thoughts:
|
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 17 Agree. However I feel FED is very careful this time and won't accelerate
rate hiking in the near future. Besides oil price keeps going down which
keeps inflation in check.
: Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten
even
if
: economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch fed
tightening
: combo. That is when real correction happens.
: to
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten even if
: economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch + fed tightening
: combo. That is when real correction happens.
:
: to
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 18 When they have made up their mind, they are going to hike, and they are
going to shrink balance sheet
tighten
fed
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Agree. However I feel FED is very careful this time and won't accelerate
: rate hiking in the near future. Besides oil price keeps going down which
: keeps inflation in check.
:
:
: Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten
: even
: if
:
: economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch fed
: tightening
:
: combo. That is when real correction happens.
|
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 19 现在回顾我的新年预期，根据一季度的公司年报还有最新的各项数据，预期今年的SP
500回报约为2.21 2.4 6 2=12.6% |
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 20 Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten even if
economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch + fed tightening
combo. That is when real correction happens.
to
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Key takeaways:
: 1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
: higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
: 2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
: 3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
: increase
: 4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
: timing is uncertain
: FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
: My thoughts:
|
|
|
w*****7
发帖数: 5038 | |
b*********s
发帖数: 3863 | 22 thanks for sharing!
Besides the geopolitical risk, any mention of the car loan and student loan
risk?
to
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Key takeaways:
: 1. The wealth effect due to improving employment situation will transfer to
: higher consumption and hence help to support GDP growth
: 2. The job market is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
: 3. Capital investment has been weak for the past months but expected to
: increase
: 4. Productivity is expected to increase in the near future though the
: timing is uncertain
: FOMC will keep hiking rate until 2019.
: My thoughts:
|
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 23 Agree. However I feel FED is very careful this time and won't accelerate
rate hiking in the near future. Besides oil price keeps going down which
keeps inflation in check.
: Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten
even
if
: economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch fed
tightening
: combo. That is when real correction happens.
: to
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten even if
: economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch + fed tightening
: combo. That is when real correction happens.
:
: to
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 24 When they have made up their mind, they are going to hike, and they are
going to shrink balance sheet
tighten
fed
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Agree. However I feel FED is very careful this time and won't accelerate
: rate hiking in the near future. Besides oil price keeps going down which
: keeps inflation in check.
:
:
: Thanks for sharing. My reading is, Fed will continue to tighten
: even
: if
:
: economic data turns softer. Be careful of the soft patch fed
: tightening
:
: combo. That is when real correction happens.
|
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 25 Mark. 我自己的退休帐户和taxable帐户Equity回报20%
: When they have made up their mind, they are going to hike, and they
are
: going to shrink balance sheet
: tighten
: fed
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: When they have made up their mind, they are going to hike, and they are
: going to shrink balance sheet
:
: tighten
: fed
|
t******o
发帖数: 3223 | 26 你低估了buyback吧。 buyback 2% 大概有的
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Mark. 我自己的退休帐户和taxable帐户Equity回报20%
:
:
: When they have made up their mind, they are going to hike, and they
: are
:
: going to shrink balance sheet
:
: tighten
:
: fed
:
|
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 27 你说对了，我当时确实没有算buy back这块，加上后我第二季度的预期应该是15%
: 你低估了buyback吧。 buyback 2% 大概有的
【在 t******o 的大作中提到】
: 你低估了buyback吧。 buyback 2% 大概有的
|
t******o
发帖数: 3223 | 28 那还有4% 是税改红利？
今年可能buyback更高。3% due to repatriation?
但是减掉这个已经price in 的4%， earning 8%,
那大概还是15%
我挺喜欢你这个model的，哈哈
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: 你说对了，我当时确实没有算buy back这块，加上后我第二季度的预期应该是15%
:
:
: 你低估了buyback吧。 buyback 2% 大概有的
:
|
f********s
发帖数: 658 | 29 不是我的Model……我要发明这个Model，估计可以至少去Stanford混了? 但是我知道
Analyst用的是什么Model，是怎样分析问题的。Taylor搞了Taylor rule，就去了
Stanford，而且差点成了Yellen的接班人。
: 那还有4% 是税改红利？
: 今年可能buyback更高。3% due to repatriation?
: 但是减掉这个已经price in 的4%， earning 8%,
: 那大概还是15%
: 我挺喜欢你这个model的，哈哈
【在 t******o 的大作中提到】
: 那还有4% 是税改红利？
: 今年可能buyback更高。3% due to repatriation?
: 但是减掉这个已经price in 的4%， earning 8%,
: 那大概还是15%
: 我挺喜欢你这个model的，哈哈
|
t******o
发帖数: 3223 | 30 大牛多来发表见解啊
【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: 不是我的Model……我要发明这个Model，估计可以至少去Stanford混了? 但是我知道
: Analyst用的是什么Model，是怎样分析问题的。Taylor搞了Taylor rule，就去了
: Stanford，而且差点成了Yellen的接班人。
:
:
: 那还有4% 是税改红利？
:
: 今年可能buyback更高。3% due to repatriation?
:
: 但是减掉这个已经price in 的4%， earning 8%,
:
: 那大概还是15%
:
: 我挺喜欢你这个model的，哈哈
:
|
|
|
C********t
发帖数: 51 | |
j*******8
发帖数: 260 | 32 Would you please explain how to triple leverage S&P? Thanks!
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: Why bother to choose stock? Just triple leverage S&P will be 27% if her
: conclusion is correct.
: [在 noregrets (风满袖) 的大作中提到：]
: :差不多吧，能不能挺到2019难说，FED model 也有局限性，不过直觉利息不涨破3，市
: :场不会有大问题，除非有突发事件，就是这股票得选对，不然白忙活。
|
