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Stock版 - Market Efficiency理论
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: market话题: efficiency话题: 理论话题: wiki话题: prices
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1 (共1页)
s**********r
发帖数: 379
1
据WIKI:“Market efficiency refers to the degree to which stock prices and
other securities prices reflect all available, relevant information”
由此理论,不同的人得出了不同的,甚至是相反的炒股结论。问题在于市场是不是100%
有效。
g****t
发帖数: 31659
2
Wiki上很多东西是错的。拿Nobel经济将的计量经济学家其实并不多,你看看他们的获
奖致辞就可以了。
w********9
发帖数: 8613
3

100%
这个我在学校学的时候正好是dot。com风火的年代。当时心里在想这是个对当时短期内绝
对不适用的理论。社会(包括所谓各类专家们)对很新的情况的理解可能会与实际偏差
很大。而且大量的人们有的可以很容易暴富的轻狂情绪会严重影响市场走向。
后来又有房市的疯狂。
最经典的例子是欧洲古代曾经发生过的Tulip Mania。当时人们疯狂地抬举郁金香的价
格。
这种理论可能只是在比较长期的时间(比如说10几年:-)里才有效。市场会远远偏离
实际甚至失去调节能力。

【在 s**********r 的大作中提到】
: 据WIKI:“Market efficiency refers to the degree to which stock prices and
: other securities prices reflect all available, relevant information”
: 由此理论,不同的人得出了不同的,甚至是相反的炒股结论。问题在于市场是不是100%
: 有效。

T*******a
发帖数: 23033
4
尼玛,market理论是建立在钱上的,谁赚了钱谁就是对的。
w********9
发帖数: 8613
5
从统计的角度看,长期里还是比较准的。看总体曲线就知道了。:)
可是人们的生活是按秒、分、小时、日、周、年和年代过的。
f********s
发帖数: 658
6
Well,market efficiency在经济学上分不同的层次……研究Market efficiency有几个
结论对投资比较有用:
1. small cap return Actually beat Big cap in a consistent way in a Long time
. Make sure diversify your portfolio into small cap. This means buy And
hold SPY as most people said here will not maximize your portfolio value in
the long way.
2. same applied to International diversification
3. Behavior Finance Can deviate the assumption of market efficiency in
traditional economics, which means market anomaly can persist for a long
time. So market momentum does exist which means technical analysis is
useful. Don'T think current PE is so high so it will regress to mean
shortly. It will Stay high even go higher in the near future
g*********9
发帖数: 1285
7
结论1和2是错觉,不要误导大家。

time
in

【在 f********s 的大作中提到】
: Well,market efficiency在经济学上分不同的层次……研究Market efficiency有几个
: 结论对投资比较有用:
: 1. small cap return Actually beat Big cap in a consistent way in a Long time
: . Make sure diversify your portfolio into small cap. This means buy And
: hold SPY as most people said here will not maximize your portfolio value in
: the long way.
: 2. same applied to International diversification
: 3. Behavior Finance Can deviate the assumption of market efficiency in
: traditional economics, which means market anomaly can persist for a long
: time. So market momentum does exist which means technical analysis is

1 (共1页)
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话题: market话题: efficiency话题: 理论话题: wiki话题: prices