p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 1 DNC后，民调54%支持巴马。第二任期来新高。
"The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 29-31 among a random
national sample of 1,003 adults, including 894 registered voters. Results
among the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of
plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
"The increase in Obama's approval rating comes mostly among younger
Americans -- he's up 9 points among those under age 45 while losing a point
among those age 45 or older -- and political independents and moderates --
up 9 points among each group."
之前民调还有一多半认为美国走在错误道路上呢。
我只能说，民调是个P。 |
j******y
发帖数: 565 | 2 现在的民调，应该是事先定个民调数字target, 然后再按照这个target去找相应的人群
进行“调查”，并且不断调整调查对象， 以便让“调查”结果符合预先设定的target
.
point
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: DNC后，民调54%支持巴马。第二任期来新高。
: "The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 29-31 among a random
: national sample of 1,003 adults, including 894 registered voters. Results
: among the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of
: plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
: "The increase in Obama's approval rating comes mostly among younger
: Americans -- he's up 9 points among those under age 45 while losing a point
: among those age 45 or older -- and political independents and moderates --
: up 9 points among each group."
: 之前民调还有一多半认为美国走在错误道路上呢。
|
p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 3 是不是还用到大数据模型，人工智能，深度学习？
给出预设支持率，机器挖出1000个candidates，然后最后“民调”误差在预设值5%以内？
target
【在 j******y 的大作中提到】
: 现在的民调，应该是事先定个民调数字target, 然后再按照这个target去找相应的人群
: 进行“调查”，并且不断调整调查对象， 以便让“调查”结果符合预先设定的target
: .
:
: point
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 4
point
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: DNC后，民调54%支持巴马。第二任期来新高。
: "The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 29-31 among a random
: national sample of 1,003 adults, including 894 registered voters. Results
: among the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of
: plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
: "The increase in Obama's approval rating comes mostly among younger
: Americans -- he's up 9 points among those under age 45 while losing a point
: among those age 45 or older -- and political independents and moderates --
: up 9 points among each group."
: 之前民调还有一多半认为美国走在错误道路上呢。
|
r******9
发帖数: 234 | 5 conducted by telephone 说明了一切。
point
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: DNC后，民调54%支持巴马。第二任期来新高。
: "The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 29-31 among a random
: national sample of 1,003 adults, including 894 registered voters. Results
: among the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of
: plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
: "The increase in Obama's approval rating comes mostly among younger
: Americans -- he's up 9 points among those under age 45 while losing a point
: among those age 45 or older -- and political independents and moderates --
: up 9 points among each group."
: 之前民调还有一多半认为美国走在错误道路上呢。
|
b*******h
发帖数: 1833 | 6 要么网站，要么街头随机，打电话的都是预先准备好的。
【在 r******9 的大作中提到】
: conducted by telephone 说明了一切。
:
: point
|
s******1
发帖数: 1235 | 7 我记得我们原来在学校，华人比较多，经常参加教会活动，有家美国人经常来教会帮忙
，他女儿还到中国贫困山区支教，有一年，这家男主人要参选议员，第一关要得到提名
，我们这些人大部分都没投票权，有人群发邮件，号召大家到有个网站参加民调，表明
这个人有多么受欢迎，其实我们对另外一个人啥都不了解，不过基于对这个人好感，很
多人积极响应，这个老美确实拿到了提名
target
【在 j******y 的大作中提到】
: 现在的民调，应该是事先定个民调数字target, 然后再按照这个target去找相应的人群
: 进行“调查”，并且不断调整调查对象， 以便让“调查”结果符合预先设定的target
: .
:
: point
|
m*h
发帖数: 2750 | |
