g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 2016 looks like a repeat of 1980
You probably remember that in September 1980 voters were couldn’t wait to
cast a vote for Reagan.
If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong.
TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue.
Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed
Magnuson summarized the voters of 1980:
Disenchanted, but not apathetic. Caring about issues, although much more
concerned about character. Longing for a strong person to trust, but
fearful of strength lacking sound judgment. Leery of weakness, but edgy
about brashness. All too mindful of the disappointments of the past, but
seeking hope in the future. Leaning toward one man, but often out of
desperation and a sense of disdain for the others. Uncommitted.
Unpredictable.
In 1980, people knew Carter was weak and bumbling, but they were afraid
Reagan might blow up the world. In 2016, we know Clinton is crooked and
sickly, and some people are afraid Trump might blow up the world. (In fact,
almost every Republican candidate since Goldwater was supposed to blow up
the world. That charge is getting pretty stale.)
The Numbers Are Remarkably Similar
When you look at the numbers from about the same period, you find incredible
similarities between Clinton vs. Trump and Carter vs. Reagan. Since
Rasmussen is the only major public poll looking at likely voters (as opposed
to registered voters), we’ll use that.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House
Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 41% support to Trump’
s 39%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up nine percent (9%) of the
vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with three percent (3%).
Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are
undecided.
And from TIME September 15, 1980:
Carter and Reagan are deadlocked at 39% each, while Anderson’s support
is 15%—precisely the level set by the League of Women Voters for him to
qualify as a “viable” candidate and therefore earn a third spot in its
crucial opening debate, set tentatively for Sept. 21 in Baltimore.
If you combined support for Green Party’s Stein with support for
Libertarian Party’s Johnson and the 3 percent who favor “some other
candidate,” third party candidates would be at . . . 15 percent. Amazing,
right?
You probably know that a lot of people have negative feelings about both
Clinton and Trump. The same was true in 1980:
Fully 55% say they are not “personally interested or excited about”
any of the candidates. Only 11% report genuine enthusiasm for Reagan; a mere
9% feel that way about Carter and 6% about Anderson. In fact, much of the
support given their preferred candidates is based on voters’ opposition to
the others; the choices are essentially and votes. Thus 43% of the voters
who prefer Reagan say they do so because they are “really voting against
Carter.” Similarly, 34% of Carter’s supporters say their choice is based
on opposition to Reagan, while a hefty 61% of Anderson’s followers admit
that they are motivated by being “against Carter and Reagan.”
You might think there were a lot more undecided voters in 1980 than in 2016.
But that’s not true, either. In early September 1980, just 1 percent
considered themselves undecided.
Reagan Had a Disastrous August
If you think Reagan’s popularity only grew throughout the summer, you’ll
want to think again. From TIME:
Though Carter and Reagan are even up in the race, the poll discloses
areas of serious slippage for Reagan in important areas. For one thing, 59%
of those preferring Carter claim they do so out of a positive feeling for
him: they like his “experience,” and consider him “safer” in foreign
affairs. Only 45% of Reagan’s followers feel a similar sense of confidence
in their choice’s ability to get things done and to answer the need for a
change. At the same time, Reagan’s rating on abilities regarded as
important by voters has declined. In TIME’S last survey in May, 49% of
those sampled agreed that Reagan was a leader “you can trust,” while 42%
believe that now. Reagan was then considered “acceptable” as a President
by 64%; the current figure is 54%. Voter confidence in Reagan’s ability to
handle the economy has dropped from an impressive 75% to 66%, and his
perceived competency in foreign affairs has slipped from 72% to 63%. The
Californian still worries voters on a basic level: 54% of those surveyed
feel that he often does not get his facts straight, and 48% fret that he may
be “trigger happy.”
What Will Happen?
I’ve already predicted a Trump landslide. No need to change any of that.
The more I hear Trump, the more hear Kemp. The more I research 1980, the
more I see 2016.
Republicans are winning the race for new voter registrations in key states.
According to the leftist Politico.com, “in Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa and
North Carolina, more new voters identify as Republicans.” Heavy Republican
voter drives will help in northeastern Ohio, too, according to fellow Tea
Party for Trumper Tom Zawistowski.
And one more amazing parallel to 1980 is playing out before our eyes. In
1980, Democrat voter enthusiasm collapsed after Carter defeated Ted Kennedy
in the primaries. As TIME pointed out:
The survey pinpoints one group of voters still posing a considerable
problem for Carter: the former followers of Senator Edward Kennedy. Despite
the efforts at the Democratic National Convention to patch up the party’s
deep rift and Kennedy’s later pledges of support for Carter, the Senator’s
followers now split three ways on what they intend to do: 39% say they will
back Carter; 28% prefer Anderson; a surprising 22% are disaffected that
they say they will ump over the wall and vote for Reagan.
In 2016, Democrat enthusiasm collapsed after Clinton outlasted socialist
Bernie Sanders. Via Bloomberg:
A June 14 Bloomberg Politics national poll of likely voters in November
’s election found that barely half of those who favored Sanders — 55
percent — plan to vote for Clinton. Instead, 22 percent say they’ll vote
for Trump, while 18 percent favor Libertarian Gary Johnson.
Amazing, isn’t? Twenty-two percent of Kennedy voters said they’d vote for
Reagan over Carter. And the 22 percent of Sanders supporters say now they’
ll vote for Trump. Amazing parallel.
On Sunday, August 28, you’ll take part in the St. Louis area Tea Party for
Trump. NFL Hall of Famer Jackie Smith will sing, and we will have live music
starting about 3:30 p.m. The rally will begin at 4:00. You’ll leave Festus
with a renewed sense of hope for our country, regardless of how you feel
about our candidate. Get your free tickets now.
You might want to read my latest book, Turning On Trump, before Sunday. Or
you can buy a copy there.
On November 8, you’ll probably be amazed at how early the race gets called
for President Trump.
http://hennessysview.com/2016/08/22/2016-repeat-1980/ | g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 2 很有总统相。
里根当时也是个离经叛道的，好像是美国历史上第一个离过婚的总统。 | f********a
发帖数: 4239 | 3 川普有点呼之欲出的意思了。不过现在的美国人构成和1980发生了很大变化，而且里根
可不像川普说话这么随意。
Ed
more
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: 2016 looks like a repeat of 1980
: You probably remember that in September 1980 voters were couldn’t wait to
: cast a vote for Reagan.
: If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong.
: TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue.
: Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed
: Magnuson summarized the voters of 1980:
: Disenchanted, but not apathetic. Caring about issues, although much more
: concerned about character. Longing for a strong person to trust, but
: fearful of strength lacking sound judgment. Leery of weakness, but edgy
| r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 4 嗯，你这一说还真有相似之处。
Ed
more
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: 2016 looks like a repeat of 1980
: You probably remember that in September 1980 voters were couldn’t wait to
: cast a vote for Reagan.
: If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong.
: TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue.
: Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed
: Magnuson summarized the voters of 1980:
: Disenchanted, but not apathetic. Caring about issues, although much more
: concerned about character. Longing for a strong person to trust, but
: fearful of strength lacking sound judgment. Leery of weakness, but edgy
| t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | | H****S
发帖数: 1359 | 6 里根是个演员，老川是个商人。魅力存在的点不一样。
【在 f********a 的大作中提到】
: 川普有点呼之欲出的意思了。不过现在的美国人构成和1980发生了很大变化，而且里根
: 可不像川普说话这么随意。
:
: Ed
: more
| w****v
发帖数: 2756 | | t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | | y******0
发帖数: 616 | 9 顶!
Ed
more
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: 2016 looks like a repeat of 1980
: You probably remember that in September 1980 voters were couldn’t wait to
: cast a vote for Reagan.
: If you remember it like that, you remember wrong. At least a little wrong.
: TIME magazine examined voter sentiment in its September 15, 1980, issue.
: Voters that year sounded a lot like voters this year. Here’s how TIME’s Ed
: Magnuson summarized the voters of 1980:
: Disenchanted, but not apathetic. Caring about issues, although much more
: concerned about character. Longing for a strong person to trust, but
: fearful of strength lacking sound judgment. Leery of weakness, but edgy
| g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 10 川普说话随意？请举几个例子。
里根说话不随意？也请举几个例子。
根可不像川普说话这么随意。
【在 f********a 的大作中提到】
: 川普有点呼之欲出的意思了。不过现在的美国人构成和1980发生了很大变化，而且里根
: 可不像川普说话这么随意。
:
: Ed
: more
|
|
