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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 The 2018 Senate Map Is Beautiful
If Democrats thought it couldn’t get any worse than 2016, they hopefully
won’t look at the 2018 Senate map looming ahead. In total, 33 Senate seats
will be in play. Of those 33, only eight are held by Republicans. Democrats
will be defending 25 (two are independents who caucus with Democrats). These
Democrats were elected (or re-elected) during the 2012 presidential
campaign and will now have to face the rougher terrain of a mid-term
election.
Here is a breakdown of the races most likely to flip the Republicans’ way.
Indiana: Democrat Joe Donnely is up for re-election. Many analysts said
Donnely lucked out with an easy win when former Sen. Richard Lugar (R) was
primaried and a weaker GOP candidate ran against him in the general election
. Donnely probably won’t have that luxury next go-around. Indiana just
elected Rep. Todd Young (R) by a ten-point margin.
Montana: Democrat Jon Tester is up for re-election. He knows a thing or two
about running races. He lead the 2016 Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee. He will need that experience fighting for his job in Montana, a
state that voted for Trump by a 21-point margin. However, Montana has a
penchant for electing Democrats statewide. While voting for Trump, Montana
voters also chose to re-elect Democrat Gov. Steve Bullock.
Florida: Democrat Bill Nelson has run many races in the Sunshine State and
now he’s asking voters in Florida again to send him to D.C. He’s a known
entity there, holding office since 1972. However, Florida did just elect a
Republican president and overwhelmingly voted for Republican Marco Rubio by
an almost 8-point margin over Rep. Patrick Murphy. Rubio performed strongly
in Latino districts that typically vote Democrat. A lot of candidate options
are on the table for the GOP: Rep. David Jolly, Rep. Ron DeSantis, or
outgoing Gov. Rick Scott. Judging how Rubio performed against Murphy,
Florida GOP should consider another Latino – as that voting base shows
stronger preferences for fellow Latinos, even when the candidate is a
Republican.
Missouri: Democrat Claire McCaskill is up for re-election again. Her
continual hold on the seat is a testament to how many times the state GOP
has screwed the pooch. Rep. Todd Akin was polling ahead of her until his “
legitimate rape” comments finally burned his chances in 2012. Missouri is a
red state. Voters there chose Trump by 19 points, re-elected Sen. Roy Blunt
by 3 points, and flipped their governors’ seat by electing Republican Eric
Greitens by almost six points. McCaskill should be done if the Missouri GOP
plays their cards right.
Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown has done well in Ohio. He’s held office there
for over 20 years and won election to the Senate twice. However, if there is
a year to oust him from power, the time is now. Ohio pivoted strongly to
the GOP in the 2016 election. Trump won the largest margin in Ohio than any
Republican in the past five elections. Republican Sen. Rob Portman won his
re-election by an astounding 21-point margin. The Rust Belt looks to be
turning red and it could spell the end for Sen. Brown.
North Dakota: It’s a little perplexing how Sen. Heidi Heitkamp even got
elected in North Dakota. It surely is a testament to the Republicans' bad
showing in 2012. Nonetheless, the state has been returning to its blood-red
roots. Voters there went for Trump by 36 points and voted for Sen. Hoeven by
a 68-point margin… You read that correctly. North Dakota voters preferred
Republican Hoeven 78.6 to 17 against the Democrat challenger.
Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin is up for re-election. No state shocked
the country more than Wisconsin. It hadn’t gone for a Republican since
Reagan in 1984. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) came back from the dead to win re-
election against Russ Feingold. Johnson clawed his way from a double-digit
deficit in the polls to a 3-point victory on Election Day. Gov. Scott Walker
also has an impeccable operation in the Badger State – winning election
three times in a row despite a union onslaught. This will be an interesting
stat to watch.
West Virginia: Once a Democrat stronghold, West Virginia is now ruby-red.
Coal country is Trump friendly and voters in this state voted for the
president-elect by a 42-point margin. Their legislature and majority of
their House delegation has gone Republican. However, it will be quite
difficult to oust Sen. Joe Manchin. West Virginia residents still appreciate
their blue-dogs. Despite choosing Trump, they voted to elect Democrat Jim
Justice to the governor’s mansion by a wide margin. Sen. Manchin is perhaps
the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. This seat may not go red
until he retires, but anything is possible when his national party brand is
as hated as it is in the Mountain State.
Pennsylvania: This is last of the three major Rust Belt States in play in
2018. Sen. Bob Casey has been involved in Pennsylvania politics for quite a
long time. It’s actually a family affair- his father held office before him
. Republican Sen. Pat Toomey proved all the polls wrong by winning against
his Democrat challenger in 2016. On top of that, Trump became the first
Republican presidential candidate to win the Keystone State since 1988. This
is a light-blue state that may be turning red with the Rust Belts.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/jasonhopkins/2016/11/17/the-2018-senate-map-is-beautiful-n2246835 | t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | | z****5
发帖数: 732 | | g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 4 猪党从上到下都缺乏远见，现在闹有什么用呢？都木已成舟了，还闹个P啊。
不如从长计议，从现在起就开始准备2020的大选。
要知道，现在的闹腾，都是在给猪党的2020增加负分。 |
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