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发帖数: 5516 | 1 U.S. Economy Expanded at 1.9% Pace in First Quarter, Above Prior Estimate
By Timothy R. Homan and Alex Kowalski - Jun 24, 2011 8:30 AM ET
U.S. Economy Grew 1.9% in First Quarter
Shoppers look at refrigerators at the ABT store during a promotion offering
a 15 percent rebate on certain Energy Star appliances in Glenview, Illinois,
U.S. Photographer: Tim Boyle/Bloomberg
Roger Altman Says Fed Growth Forecast Signals `Weakness'
General Motors employees assemble a GM crossover SUV on the assembly line at
the GM Lansing Delta Township Assembly Plant March in Lansing, Michigan.
Photographer: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, marking
the start of what Federal Reserve policy makers project is a temporary
slowdown in growth.
The revised rise in gross domestic product matches the median forecast of
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and follows a 3.1 percent gain in the
prior quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The
government last month estimated first-quarter growth at 1.8 percent. The
figures also showed inflation climbed more than previously calculated.
The jump in commodity prices and the shortage of auto parts stemming from
the disaster in Japan earlier this year that have also restrained growth
this quarter are showing signs of improving. Fed officials, who lowered
their forecasts for growth and employment this year and next, this week
maintained record stimulus to underpin the recovery.
“We’re going to see improvement in the second half of the year, but I
would not expect it to be stellar,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond
James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, said before the report.
“We still have a bunch of headwinds for growth.”
GDP projections of 71 economists in the survey ranged from 1.7 percent to 2.
3 percent. The government’s GDP estimate is the third and final for the
quarter.
Revision Breakdown
The first-quarter revision reflected a smaller trade deficit and a bigger
increase in inventories than previously reported. A 4.2 percent drop in
spending by state and local government agencies that was larger than last
estimated and the biggest drop since 1981 held back the advance in GDP.
Orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in May after slumping
the prior month, easing concern manufacturing will share in an extended U.S.
growth slowdown, other figures from the Commerce Department showed today.
Bookings for equipment meant to last at least three years rose 1.9 percent
after a 2.7 percent decline the prior month that was less than originally
reported. Demand for non-military capital equipment also beat expectations
after revised April readings showed a smaller decline than previously
reported.
Today’s GDP report showed consumer spending rose at a 2.2 percent annual
pace, the same as previously reported. The 4 percent gain in the fourth
quarter was the biggest since the end of 2006.
Rising Profits
Some U.S. companies are projecting increased profits. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.
(BBBY), the operator of more than 1,100 stores in North America, said this
week that profit in its current fiscal year will gain more than the retailer
previously expected as sales climb.
The auto industry is among those that will probably rebound next quarter,
according to economists. A boost to motor vehicle output, spurred by
dwindling inventories following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March
, will add about 1.5 percentage points to GDP for July through September,
Morgan Stanley economists, led by David Greenlaw, wrote in a note to clients.
That follows an estimated 0.8 percentage point subtraction for the second
quarter, the economists said. Morgan Stanley this week forecasted growth at
a 2.7 percent pace for April through June and 3.9 percent for the third
quarter.
The Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is tied to consumer spending and
strips out food and energy costs, climbed at a 1.6 percent annual pace, up
from the 1.4 percent rate previously estimated. The gauge will rise 1.5
percent to 1.8 percent this year, slightly higher than the 1.3 percent to 1.
6 percent estimated in April, Fed officials said this week.
U.S. central bankers said the economy will expand 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent
this year, down from forecasts ranging from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent in
April. The revised outlook this week was the second time this year that Fed
officials lowered their forecasts for growth.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at
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