w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 1 In my post when AMZN break out from $95 to $110,
I says AMZN is a $200 stock within 2 years |
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j**s
发帖数: 1028 | 2 I am too new and need Da Niu support.
If we bet AMZN very bullish after ER etc say 5-10% jump, can buy May call
at $145 for $635, likely double or 3 times.
Or maybe safer to buy call spread July $145-135 cost $530. yet the max
profile could double if no big jump in AMZN price.
Can anybody give some idea?
Thx. |
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j****9
发帖数: 312 | 3 First bought 2 calls of AMZN and then shorted 200 shares of AMZN just in case
for a hedge. Made over $2000 profits in just a couple of hours not too bad
I guess. $3000+ DT profits today alone. |
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c*******7
发帖数: 3763 | 4 现在101左右的价格，上一点应该问题不大。
tnnd，当初120还是118的时候烧amzn，竟然被烧糊了屁股，被broker强制平仓了的。
没想到，现在早跌破俺当初的开烧价了。
不过，俺现在还不上amzn，俺准备明天开盘看看情况再说。 |
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gw
发帖数: 2175 | 5 4.22, AMZN创新高，三天后DOW,NQ 创2010最高并开始下跌。
9.20的AMZN的新高会不会让历史重现？ |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 6 hehe. 我几个月前就强调amzn是cloud computing的主要player，（amzn《120的时候）
当时歪脖还很惊讶
.
has
,
a
pieces
return |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 7 I don't have anything on AMZN
Anyway, just my thoughts, the fundamental analysis did not imply high up
side room for AMZN.
Good luck in your trading. |
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gw
发帖数: 2175 | 8 村长和版上的大牛能不能帮忙分析一下AMZN下几步可能的走法，
也好让小青蛙有点心理准备。
因为各种原因，手中有一些amzn乱糟糟的东西，
想根据达人的分析，自己形成一个大概的思路
先谢过大牛救青蛙于水深火热之中 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 9 首先比个最简单的：
股价： MRK 35， AMZN 175， 5倍啊5倍
每股盈利： 今年和明年，MRK 都比 AMZN 略高 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 10 book value：
AMZN 15
MRK 18
这个book value到底怎么算出来的，还请懂fianance的专家指教，我知道高点比较好
每股cash： AMZN 13. MRK 3. 我不知道这个数字有没有包含债务。 |
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r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | 11 两种的作用是不同的。
amzn = 亚麻是让人过瘾，让人high的，
而MRK=milk是让人吃饭填饱肚子的，居家过日子用的。
amzn是个荡妇，上了就跑。
mrk是基本上可以娶回家的。 |
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l**********o
发帖数: 9952 | 12 很有可能，可我也觉得amzn pe太高～不愿意碰它。百度高可百度是中国公司，中国公
司怎么样我都不吃惊。amzn和aapl比，我个人喜好aapl。 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 13 no, nflx has no place to go :-) they only have 2000 streaming servers
when they launched the service, after that, all go to amzn's cloud. at
this time, no one can provide such scalable cloud service like amzn. |
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s*****e
发帖数: 353 | 14 I have no AMZN :...(
I cannot trade AMZN |
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s****c
发帖数: 11300 | 15 不一定 amzn是用的游戏公司的思路 看看sony 任天堂 msft游戏部门有赚大钱的么?
从nflx里面可以看到 做内容用户没啥忠诚度 哪家便宜以后随便跳 但是有硬件做基础
的就不一样
kindle fire赔钱卖 如果出来另外一家更烧包的比hp还脑残的ceo赔更多钱卖,那这个市
场就坏掉了
还有个消息就是goog也要开始做音乐贩卖了 这对aapl和amzn都是个打击 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 16
-------------------------
It was even better buy 3 days ago
at $195.5 or lower.
AMZN, 20111025, 195.5000,
Should go much higher than yesterday's
close of 206.80:
AMZN, 20111027, 206.8000 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 17 *** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: AMZN AS OF 20111103 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111103 was 217.8000
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -2.5101 (-1.20%)
Short-Term Price Target: 215.2899
At Price Target, profit is 11.5248 on $1000 investment. (+1.15%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 215.2899
There is a small chance of price re... 阅读全帖 |
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b******u
发帖数: 3215 | 18 请记住，营业额和股价是没有直接关系的，参考航空
盈利能力才是决定股价的唯一因素，AMZN股价不是一般的高。
AMZN现在的价格表明在未来5年，他/她的利润增长在46%。是未来连续5年。你觉得可能
么？ |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 19 FIRE本来就是用来AMZN购物的啊
不要期望值太大了，价格摆在哪里呢
AMZN现在就是看庄家定位在哪里了，我觉得大家好像达成共识了，180算底线了，现在
进不亏 |
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D*w
发帖数: 1011 | 20 上次提到AMZN的成长是多方位的
大家知道吗? AMZN还是一家广告公司, 商品广告业务已经有三年历史了,并成长迅速 |
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D*w
发帖数: 1011 | 21 AMZN深V!
加仓AMZN, 坚定做多!!! |
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D*w
发帖数: 1011 | 22 AMZN深V!
加仓AMZN, 坚定做多!!! |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 23 revenue可能不错，但是margin不高。股价上还是下都有可能。
但是我觉得偏下，因为amzn是个泡泡。盈利能力不行的东西，最终都要现原形的。
而且amzn已经太大了。很难保持高速扩张。 |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 24 amzn以前p/e是200多的吧，现在降到130， 已经算便宜了？我看很多对大盘没信心的
chief strategist都对amzn er后的股价表示他们愿意买入，说是很便宜。 |
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s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 26 预期只有八分钱， 再不能beat, p/e 140 的amzn真的可以去死了。
一直很纳闷， amzn跟wall street怎么关系这么好， 几乎不赢利， 可是
估价却一直这么挺。 |
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d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 27 从中长期看，Long ebay, short amzn。当然搏杀er的做法另当别论。
amzn目前的价位需要其达到100%的年增长才能配得上，反观ebay，目前44元还是被低估
。 |
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m****9
发帖数: 492 | 28 感谢分享，能不能展开说说100%年增张怎么计算。
查了一下Q2的期望 EPS 2c，revenue $12.89B，还算是在公司的Expectation里面。
Revenue算是higher end可能beat不了，EPS看起来可以beat。我觉得可能是mixed ER。
AMZN的业务范围很广泛，不光是Online retail, 还有Online Video，Book Business,
Cloud Computing等等。这个可能是导致AMZN P/E很高的原因。 |
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w****k
发帖数: 10542 | 29 没有好的终端，抢谁去啊。
aapl的最难抢，amzn的最好抢了。
nexus第一个灭的就是amzn
类似iphone灭blackberry。 |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 30 The new Kindle tablets are very competitive.
AMZN is likely to continue increasing market share and become
the second largest tablet seller.
$300 is actually a conservative target.
AMZN can get there easily in 6 months, if not sooner.
You may not believe it, but I would not short it.
Mark my words. |
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r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 31 I do not worry about the PE, but do not think Amzn have the technical
abilities to beat apple or other android devices.
All those are backed up by strong engineers, but amzn try to make the kindle
better so in last year it try to contact over 600 people, both product,
engineer, design from google and apple, but only double digits willing to
talk and single digits do the interviews. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 32
Me too. I only buy for those really good deals. AMZN may make some money
from me, but very limited.
Bubble 2.0 bust is coming. AMZN will have big hit if its growth story is end
. I think it will end soon because its core business faces much tougher
competition than before. Its sales tax advantage is gone. |
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r*****e
发帖数: 792 | 33 you might be right about betting on ER. but if you indeed feel good
about amzn, should not you hold it tight? or a safer strategy, buy
puts to protect your position? amzn may have gone up a few percent
recently, but in case it does jump again after ER, isn't taking
profits too early not so wise? |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 34 average up...
我已经做好了AMZN去400的准备，等AMZN=AAPL=400，就跟Y的死磕到底。 |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 35 I agree that sales tax had a significant impact, hopefully
that was offset by the overall increase of the online retail
market (and as the #1 player, amzn would benefit from that).
As to Kindle HD, I have one (the 4G LTE version) and absolutely
love it. I think it's a great device for reading and media
entertainment. I have not touched my iPad for months. Compared
to iOS, there are a lot more to do with Android (without having
to jailbreak or root. I stopped jailbreaking my Apple devices a
cou... 阅读全帖 |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 36 to battle rackspace, goole, etc. again, a typical amzn move.
geez, it's just hard to live in any space that amzn plays in.
if i were running bby, tgt, toysrus, i wouldn't be sleeping well... |
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p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 37 谢谢，你真是个很耐心的人。
网上shopping的确有你说的种种好处。我感觉把amzn定位在网上walmart还是差不多的
，除了没有grocery这一块。两者长期共存吧。不过现在的股价，应该是寄希望amzn有
其他的大增长点。 |
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g*****i
发帖数: 9630 | 38 不会出现这种情况的,因为另外一个因素在对估价有着巨大的影响,那就是
profitability. amzn这两年的策略都是在烧钱,使劲烧钱来drive topline growth.
他可以easily的double 或者triple margin. 之所以不做,因为显然topline是抢地盘,
更重要.但如果market开始stable,大家都会开始在margin上做文章.这个在行业里根本
不是啥秘密.
所以,amzn跌20%时候,无脑all in就好了,至少3年内我看不到啥风险.当然,作为零售行
业,暴涨本身就不是正常的,所以暴涨时出货就好了.一轮10%~20%利润,一年搞两轮已经
很好了. |
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M*y
发帖数: 593 | 39 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com Inc. /quotes/zigman/63011/quotes/
nls/amzn AMZN +4.87% on Tuesday reported a fourth-quarter profit of $97
million, or 21 cents a share, on revenue of $21.27 billion. During the same
period a year ago, the online retailing giant earned $177 million, or 38
cents a share, on $17.43 billion in sales. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had
forecast Amazon to earn 28 cents a share on revenue of $22.26 billion.
Operating income, considered a key measure of Amazon's b... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 40 AMZN is very hard to play short term.
MM may just kill all call and put option.
However, I do feel that AMZN will go down in the next 3 months.
The best quarter is gone. Jan-Mar is slow quarter. It may go down
to $220 level. |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 41 没看到股神long amzn的也赚钱，short amzn的也赚钱？
这种股票上上下下就是股神们的提款机。 |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 42 不过我觉得也是因为最近阶段有故事可炒的股票太少了。金融不行了，
新能源不行了，房市不行了，连苹果都不行了。现在也就AMZN和
GOOG还有点故事能炒炒。我觉得GOOG是真有故事，AMZN恐怕
几年内要狂掉。 |
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m*****y
发帖数: 3981 | 43 MM 弄死long call和put AMZN的人
这次MM学聪明了，不像5天前的Aaple,弄死long call 和 put AMZN的人。 真毒 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 44 Bull and bear MMs probably are settle for $270 for tomorrow option
expiration day.
But anyhow, AMZN upside is very limited, downside risk is much higher than
upside.
Relatively, most of banks and oil related stocks will have better
performance than AMZN because its growth story is near end(this year revenue
growth will be lower than 20%). |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 45 Very risky for AMZN.
My advice for AMZN ER is:
(1) if you don't have inside information, stay sideway.
(2) if you have inside information, still stay sideway in case FBI/SEC finds
you. |
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D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 46
I have a very very and very bad experience on AMZN
last year, I bought AMZN at 200, this bitch tanked to 175.
I got 800 shares. then I have to roll over and over by selling calls
and DT, finally make it even and get out.
My suggestion is staying away.
Or follow my Master #6 buy and hold with strong gut. |
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k***n
发帖数: 185 | 47 AMZN earning 前往上，earning 后往下
AMZN earning 前往下，earning 后往上
赌big drop down! |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 49 CSCO once was a $500 B company. Seems 500B is a magic number for
tech giants. Streets tend to pump the real flagship tech company to that
level, then..dump.
AMZN looks to me a prospective candidate as well. You still need to consider
the possibility that AMZN could be pumped much higher, even not reach the
level of 500B market cap. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 50 One funny and very funny thing for AMZN stock is
its estimates for Q1 is dropped to all the way to 7 cents, but stock price
could
stay near peak. Most of stocks price will go down when their estimates are
reduced, but not AMZN. This definitely is manipulated by some funds, may be
3-4 funds MM. However, this bubble eventually will get busted. It's just
matter of time.
expected |
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