s**********n 发帖数: 868 | 1 Agree.
I used to have DBO, but couldn't stand the contango. Now I only have a
little COP. Holding oil companies with good upstream business makes more
sense in the long run than dealing with futures. |
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t****g 发帖数: 35582 | 2 我hold了大概15%的油,被contango吃的一塌糊涂。当时没仔细研究,不懂这些东西。 |
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C***x 发帖数: 468 | 3 没什么这camp那camp的。投资人都要对不同情况去适应的。
关于这个石油,散户可以考虑远期期货比如CLZ5可以部分减轻contango的问题。流动性还可以。不过其他问题还是有的,你看到国债信心出现问题时你就要小心了,但是应该有足够时间你取得利润退出的。
至于黄金,我认为它的高峰在2020年前后。那时候是具有生产力人口作为比例一直在下降到了那时候是最低谷。美国财政压力危机最深的时候,市场一定会在这个过程中经历非常大的问题。 |
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n******n 发帖数: 12088 | 5 散户就别玩了,没用。知道什么是contango吗? |
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c********u 发帖数: 144 | 6 Contango is a situation where the futures price (or forward price) of a
commodity is higher than the spot price
为啥散户不能买这个,不懂,能解释一下吗? |
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m******k 发帖数: 139 | 8 Costco has "Contango" cups. |
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i**y 发帖数: 1170 | 10 Still pretty significant contango ahead. Stay away bah. |
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o*********l 发帖数: 1807 | 11 I hate it when people don't know what they are buying in to.
UNG keep buying the Future Contract of Nat gas so it has no correlation with
spot price movement. It is in COntango(go google it) and it keeps rolling
the future each month so the rolling expenses are killing this one. |
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i**y 发帖数: 1170 | 12 With huge contango ahead, I don't think any bounce would sustain for more
than a week. |
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i**y 发帖数: 1170 | 13 Warm weather, serious contango, I say buying 7p would be a better way to
make money. |
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c********r 发帖数: 128 | 14 Long time observation and waiting for the volume increases. Finally it came
today on the bad news.
But economy is recovering, home heating may be ending, I do not see my
electric bill decrease. I thought about UNL to avoid the contango issue, but
the bid-ask spread was too big, and volume is too thin.
No pain no gain, this is just a small percentage of my investment. Most of
my stuff in CD or high yield or bond.So do not follow it without your
thinking. |
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o*********l 发帖数: 1807 | 15
came
but
OH my man, You need to read what the underlying is for this ETF. It buys
Natgas Future contract and it is in contango which means current price(Spot
Price) is much lower than Future Price (UNG's underlying). Moreover, UNG
doesn't own any physical inventory. It just keep rolling future contracts
over when it expires and this rolling is eating big chunk out of your Net
asset Value(aka current etf price). |
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c********r 发帖数: 128 | 16 I understood what you are saying. Gambling has nothing to do with the
fundamentals. Contango is there, it WILL eat to the NAV. but, there IS some
value in the FUTURE contract right now. It may goes to ZERO in the future,
But I do NOT care.
BTW, I lost 2 cents per share today. DAMN.
Spot |
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l*******r 发帖数: 3799 | 17 Remember the huge contango back in 2009?
Guess those banks are dumping their holdings.
Not only the spread between spot price and near-term contract is very small,
even the spread between near-term and mid-term is very small. |
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l*******r 发帖数: 3799 | 18 There use to be serve contango problem, which badly hurt USO.
But time has changed, oil will enter a new scenario, called backwardation,
hehe |
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g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 20 那些contango trade存的油怎么不出来了结啊? |
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m*********a 发帖数: 3299 | 21 UNG is trading natural gas future so has premium contango problem. Just like
buying option, there is time value of future contract. If natural gas price
is only going up 20% while time premium is 30%, you lose 10% on UNG. IN the
meanwhile, natural gas price goes up 20%. Those future cotracts are often
written by natural gas companies. So your money goes to traders and those
companies. If you bet natural gas in longer term, just buy and hold of
companies not UNG. The natural gas price will keep l |
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c********r 发帖数: 128 | 22 I found that UNL has some significant accumulation at the price range. It
does have less contango issue than UNG has.
I put a small position in with a stop loss of 10%(hopefully not hit) and
plan to hold it long time to get 200% return on this small pot. :) |
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g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 23 请教一下,天然气怎么玩contango?
不像原油,没法大量储存啊。 |
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f******k 发帖数: 416 | 24 There are underground storage for natural gas
and I think that contango exiSts where the ETF is based on future contracts
be it oil or natural gas |
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f**********r 发帖数: 2137 | 25 there is contango, the chart is just front month continuous contracts. it's
not easy to make money |
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l*******r 发帖数: 3799 | 27 Be cautious, the near term contango is huge recently. |
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a****i 发帖数: 4783 | 28 这个很正常吧,天然气比石油仓储费用要高许多,所以contango也会大很多,而且天气
热大家用的是电,发电用天然气的不多。如果冬天天气冷了几十度,估计天然气价格就
大涨了。 |
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G*******s 发帖数: 10605 | 29 I am sorry for your loss, not intend to call for it. I only have 800 shares
my self. Contango effects kills stocks like USO and UNG so it is not a
really long term holding candidates.
不过话说回来,hold一阵出水的可能性还是很大的,下次到了8.7附近先出去一半再说。 |
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g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 30 看来5帮主烧ETF的路子还有contango这么高深的解释。
厉害! |
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y***r 发帖数: 16594 | 31 主要是有contango的问题。
现在我的策略是捂股票,卖put,卖covered call。一起结合起来搞。效果还不错,
spike |
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l*******r 发帖数: 3799 | 32 Contango will kill you ..
spike |
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w*******o 发帖数: 6125 | 33 Know what you are buying.
Don't turn "buy and hold" into "buy and hope".
UNG/USO is not a good candidate for long term holding.
It has the decay/contango problem.UCO may work a little better.
"。 |
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w****o 发帖数: 2210 | 34 是的,如果真看好天然气,应该玩PNY而不是UNG,
不知道为什么UNG会归零的,google一下ung contango 就知道了。 |
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g*****u 发帖数: 14294 | 36 可以去看下shale gas有关的知识。
nat gas的over capacity是个长期的overhang. UNG本身据说也有contango的问题。 |
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m*****u 发帖数: 5534 | 37 买1年后到期的天然气期权,同时做空等量UNG,是不是稳赚contango?大牛说说。 |
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E**O 发帖数: 1980 | 38 有人要买,有人要烧。搞清楚contango 和 backwardation两个单词先。 |
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C***x 发帖数: 468 | 39 随时更新的石油和天然气的term structure图可以在网上找到吗? |
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U********n 发帖数: 1010 | 40 哦,为什么你觉得过几年会一直涨上去啊?
是说到时候天然气的价格会上涨?我看natural gas 的期货价格,到2014,15年的时候
的确是比现在要高出40%。
是不是那个时候UNG就会涨起来?
但是会不会那个之前就会亏得挂掉了。
有个contango的是什么问题?会不会?我是小蝌蚪,问题很多。谢谢啊。 |
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g******u 发帖数: 30 | 41 不懂还是不要搞。 soft commodities usually have very strong term structure. i
would recommend commodities with small backwardation, like sugar. avoid
commodities with strong contangos, like rice or wheat. cotton and corn
have very strong backwardation, which might make you lots of money in the
short term if u are long, but need to put a tight stop, because when it
drops, it is going to be big. |
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b******r 发帖数: 16603 | 42 google contango, UNG is not designed for holding long if gas price cannot
sharply rally for long term. |
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w****r 发帖数: 245 | 43 大侠,分类都分好了,求神签
# Basic Materials, Agricultural Chemicals
AGU Agrium Inc.
AVD American Vanguard Corp.
CAGC China Agritech Inc.
CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CGA China Green Agriculture, Inc.
CMP Compass Minerals International
COIN Converted Organics Inc.
IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc.
MON Monsanto Co.
MOS Mosaic Co.
NOEC New Oriental Energy & Chemical
POT Potas... 阅读全帖 |
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t****g 发帖数: 35582 | 44 你这个chart只能说明在contango下长期持有oil etf 就是渣 |
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b******r 发帖数: 16603 | 45 UNG has contango issue. It is not designed for holding long. |
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C****a 发帖数: 1639 | 46 I think oil price would go much higher from here this year.
1. Unlike equities, when commodities start to move, in my view, they
usually have longer, stronger than more consistent trend (look at oil/sugar/
gold, etc). And crude oil just start to take off...
2. Pretty much no contango in near time and some backwardation in longer
term... probably a good sign for near term oil price, because oil holder
will replace long term holding with short term holding, driving the near
term oil price up.
3... 阅读全帖 |
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C****a 发帖数: 1639 | 47 I think oil price would go much higher from here this year.
1. Unlike equities, when commodities start to move, in my view, they
usually have longer, stronger than more consistent trend (look at oil/sugar/
gold, etc). And crude oil just start to take off, just by looking at the
chart.
2. Pretty much no contango in near time and some backwardation in longer
term... probably a good sign for near term oil price, because oil holder
will replace long term holding with short term holding, driving t... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****e 发帖数: 1717 | 49 很多人觉得这个是历史新低,又不会破产降到0等等,觉得是个很好的机会。
这个问题没那么简单,不清楚算法应该去看看CBOE的VIX WHITE BOOK。
里面的算法并不是那么straight forward,有好多种情形可以降低VIX,
远远不止是SPX近两期的月期权的IV降低那么简单。
另外VIX的计算公式中用到了bid/ask的middle price,有点经验的人知道
这就存在了manipulate的可能。对于非常illiquid的strike,可能会通过
各种方式来改变这个参数,而并没有实际交易的意愿。
再就是自从CBOE有了WEEKLY OPTIONS以后,量增加得非常快,品种也越来越,
我记得去年的时候每周才30个左右的symbol。现在已经增加到60多个了,非
常惊人。SPX什么时候列在WEEKLY里面,我不太确定,但至少去年就列入了。
而且经常CHECK weekly list的人应该有印象,SPX不仅列入,而且被加了
注释好几次。我很少碰SPX的期权,所以不记得具体发生了什么非常细节的变化
了。
SPX的weeky options会很大程度上影响SPX monthly的... 阅读全帖 |
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b******r 发帖数: 16603 | 50 Contract Last Change Open High Low Previous Volume Time Links
VIY00 (Cash) 15.83 +1.14 15.64 16.06 15.50 14.69 0 12:16
VIK11 (May '11) 17.70 -0.20 17.80 17.95 17.70 17.90 4,892 12:16
VIM11 (Jun '11) 19.70 -0.30 19.90 19.90 19.60 20.00 2,450 12:16
VIN11 (Jul '11) 21.00 -0.40 21.16 21.16 20.88 21.40 2,417 12:16
contango? |
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