|
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s********n
发帖数: 455 | 3 http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/06/cutoff-date-expectations-and-e
Cutoff Date Expectations and Explanations: EB2 Retrogression
July 6, 2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has provided detailed predictions and
explanations regarding the movement of priority dates in fiscal year 2013 (
FY13), which occurs from October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013. The
employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China faces
protracted retrogression. While the EB2 category will no longer... 阅读全帖 |
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j*******0
发帖数: 44 | 4 some useful data for FY07, FY08, FY09, FY10
Perm Data(EB2&3 Approved in the FY)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
China 6846 3328 2094 4000
India 24573 16569 11387 29000
In FY07, I take a look at the EB2 485 inventory:
average monthly Chinese EB2 485 submitted is 700
average monthly India EB2 485 submitted is 1600
I guess the monthly Chinese EB2 demand for FY08 will decrease to 400(from
the perm data trend).
But the monthly India EB2 demand for FY08 will not decrease a... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****d
发帖数: 7963 | 5 【 以下文字转载自 EB23 讨论区 】
发信人: pulus (Pulus), 信区: EB23
标 题: 数据说话：3012之后清空08/09/10 EB2需多久
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 23 22:11:22 2011, 美东)
1. 08/09/10年PERM data: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
2. NIW估计：保守估计，按PERM的1/10算
3. 中印每个PERM产生485的系数：引用SinoGator，中国是1.5，烙印是3.5。这里保守
估计，中国按1.5，烙印按3。
4. 3012的最快通过时间：考虑到Senate 12月不上班，1月、2月基本不上班，从明年2
月末开始讨论，2-3个月通过，加上总统签署，保守估计最快6月份生效。此时FY2012只
剩下3个月，名额还剩1/4，也就是10000个。
5. 暂时不算海量EB3I在这几年中升级的数量，因为不好估计。但数量肯定会很大。
那么：
2008:
China - 1491PERM + 150NIW = 1641 x 1.5 = 2... 阅读全帖 |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 6 1. 08/09/10年PERM data: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
2. NIW估计：保守估计，按PERM的1/10算
3. 中印每个PERM产生485的系数：引用SinoGator，中国是1.5，烙印是3.5。这里保守
估计，中国按1.5，烙印按3。
4. 3012的最快通过时间：考虑到Senate 12月不上班，1月、2月基本不上班，从明年2
月末开始讨论，2-3个月通过，加上总统签署，保守估计最快6月份生效。此时FY2012只
剩下3个月，名额还剩1/4，也就是10000个。
5. 暂时不算海量EB3I在这几年中升级的数量，因为不好估计。但数量肯定会很大。
那么：
2008:
China - 1491PERM + 150NIW = 1641 x 1.5 = 2461
India - 7401PERM + 740NIW = 8141 x 3 = 24423
08年Total: 26884. FY12只有10000(FY12最后一季度)+5600(中印在3012生效前各有
2800)，还需11000左右，应该在FY13... 阅读全帖 |
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m******9
发帖数: 968 | 7 很多人都着重关注windows和office的财报和增长情况，其实microsoft STB也是另外一
个大头。最近一直保持着快速的增长。 刚才查了查，
FY12 Q1: Product revenue increased $253 million or 8%
FY12 Q2: Product revenue increased $328 million or 10%
FY12 Q3: Product revenue increased $396 million or 12%
FY12 Q4: Product revenue increased $1.4 billion or 11%
FY13 Q1: Product revenue increased $215 million or 6% |
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c*******6
发帖数: 686 | 8 EB3都是PERM, 可以从PERM 批准量上分析大概结果
FY06 ROW-32107
FY07 ROW-32434
FY08 ROW-17211
FY09 ROW-10128
FY10 ROW-22376
FY11 ROW-15111
FY12 ROW-12852
FY10大致处理了2009.01-2010.07共18个月的PERM申请/
FY11大致处理了2010.07-2011.06共12个月的PERM申请/
FY12大致处理了2011.07-2012.06共12个月的PERM申请/
FY13大致处理了2012.08-2013.02共7个月的PERM申请/
FY08-12的PERM水平基本一致
1.其中FY10显示稍多 是因为处理时间加快,处理了18个月的申请
2.如果EB2/3 在PERM比例一直保持一致
EB3ROW inventory 应该保持基本一致的水平
如果除掉Audit 的case, FY09-12 实际EB3ROW数量应该更低
对于史前的case，我猜是史前的烙印和它族联姻了 ：）
处理时间 - Analyst Review - Audited
2009.03.... 阅读全帖 |
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N******K
发帖数: 10202 | 9 看点在此
It is important to note that the success rates for targeted and investigator
-initiated RPG awards are primarily the same,
=============================================================
Rock Talk
Helping connect you with the NIH perspective
2014 By the Numbers
Posted on December 31, 2014 by Sally Rockey
Application and award summary data for fiscal year 2014 are now available in
the NIH Data Book. These data are of particular interest for all of us this
year, considering the historic low ... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********0
发帖数: 73 | 10 FYI
Despite significant revision, we still see downside to 1Q consensus EPS
estimates
We expect non-GAAP revenue to rise 19% yoy to US$95m, which is in line with
company
guidance (US$93m-96m). This is mainly driven by 34% yoy growth in ad revenue
. We expect
the GAAP gross margin to further decline 2ppt qoq to 56% on higher video
content and
bandwidth costs, and the non-GAAP op margin to narrow 4ppt qoq to 23% on
higher S&M
expenditure on miniblog. We note that Bloomberg consensus estimates for ... 阅读全帖 |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 11 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): FQ3 EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $869M (+21% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Lowers FY13 EPS estimate to $2.55
-$2.60. Earnings CC scheduled for 5:00 PM EST.
More on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): Says sales growth trajectory
will moderate downward from its "hyper-growth" phase. Single-serve pack
sales up 153% Y/Y to $638M, with a 28% percentage point gain in sales volume
. Gross margin fell to 34.9%, from 36.8% a year ago. For FY12, sees net
sales o... 阅读全帖 |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 12 FY12 still have 20,000+ H1B available,and could last 20 wks if you count
consumption 1K per week. If so, it does have leftover in this year. It means
there are lots more SO in FY12. Good news. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 13 No way. It could closer to end of FY12: e.g. June or July, but no way he
exceeds the FY12 to FY13. It is crazy.... |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 14 ROWers 已经在吃FY12的名额了；所以FY12的名额不会都拿到,有没有一半都不肯定.没
准还要用FY13 的名额来消化08的PD的demands. |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 15 trackitt上有几百个2011年10月以后批准的EB2中印case（NSC+TSC），我仔细看了一下
，到目前（2012年1月）为止，没有一个case的PD是2007年7月31号以后的；所有case都
是7月及7月之前。
从2011年10月开始到现在（也就是2012财年第一季度），批准的case都是2007年4、5、
6、7月的，而且看样子还没有批完。我不知道FY12第一季度会批准多少本财年的名额（
会到1/4吗？）。但很显然2007年8、9、10、11、12月的case没有一个批准的，而且这
些人以后都将占用FY12的名额。
谁有估计2007年下半年，每个月大概有多少申请？ |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 16 The 2nd half of FY12 just is beginning, how could anyone calculate the SO of
whole FY12 accurately???? Not even talked about run out of it...
I agree there must be estimation on this and allocated some (or many) of it
earlier than before based on projection, but it is hardly to say run out of
it all now. |
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 17 抢了About 1Q worth of ROW EB2.
FY11 ROW EB2 got about 34800.
如果ROW一直All C,名额敞开供应，来多少绿多少，并且ROW需求每年保持稳定，
那么FY12 EB2 ROW本来也可拿这么多。因FY12 ROW排期倒退，被抢去1Q worth of ROW
大约34800 / 4 = 8700.
假设FY13 EB2 ROW本来也可拿34800，因为去年1Q worth of ROW挤到今年，今年ROW就
有大约5Q worth需求，因今年ROW又变ALL C，又变成敞开供应，也就是5Q Worth需求全
部会变绿，那今年ROW将吃到名额大约 8700 X 5 = 43500. 注意此一数字已经大于
40000，也即ROWEB2将吃一部分EB1，EB4,EB5过来的剩余。 |
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n****s
发帖数: 159 | 18 Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from
some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume
of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In
FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2
India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 vis... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 19 Highlight: the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be
available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
Dose it mean that EB2C can get at least 2000 excess visa number. The
assumption is that the number of spillover of EB2C: EB2I is 1:5.
This ratio is even lower than before.
___________________________________________________________________
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from
some excess visa n... 阅读全帖 |
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p**y
发帖数: 53 | 20 大侠们算算， 中国EB2能分得到多少： 100， 500， 1,000， 3,000？
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from
some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume
of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In
FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2
India and China. At this time,... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******6
发帖数: 686 | 21 查了一下以前的PERM处理进度
FY10大致处理了2009.01-2010.07共18个月的PERM申请/ROW-22376
FY11大致处理了2010.07-2011.06共12个月的PERM申请/ROW-15111
FY12大致处理了2011.07-2012.06共12个月的PERM申请/ROW-12852
FY10 ROW 共处理了22,376个PERM，除以18/12, 每年14917仍旧是正常的水平,不存在明
显好转的吧。
处理时间 - Analyst Review - Audited
2009.03.21 - 2008.07 - 2007.09
2009.07.31 - 2008.11 - 2007.10
FY10----------------
2009.11.31 - 2009.02 - 2007.10
.......
2010.09.30 - 2010.07 - 2008.08
FY11----------------
2010.09.30 - 2010.07 - 2008.08
.......
2011.08.22 - 2011.05 - 2010.12
FY12-... 阅读全帖 |
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l***n
发帖数: 731 | 23 FY11 预算减了 38B, 大家谈谈对, DOE, NSF, FDA , NIH 的资金的影响? FY12 呢? |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 24 你到这个网站上问问吧。那里很多人在讨论NIH payline.
http://writedit.wordpress.com/nih-paylines-resources/
NCI只公布了R系列的payline.你可以作为参考。
For FY12, although there will be no guaranteed paylines, R01 & R21
applications up to the 7th percentile will be funded with only rare
exceptions. Individual applications beyond the 7th percentile will be
considered for funding on a case-by-case basis by the SPL (same for
established & ESI/NI applicants); Most R03 & R15 applications up to the
priority score of 25 will befunded. Appli... 阅读全帖 |
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e******e
发帖数: 410 | 25 sorry i can only type in english
your idea and other similiar marketing effectiveness idea are very good as i
know that many big companies are eager for it. take sumsung for example, th
ey paid $30M in FY12 for some marketing reporting/monitoring work and the bo
ss at sumsung really wants to see these marketing effectivess modeling.
so for your start up idea, you may need to collaborate with some marketing p
rofessionals and i guess it is more likely to be successful here in U.S. com
pared with ... 阅读全帖 |
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g**********g
发帖数: 18118 | 26 this year is very good. Depends on outlook for FY12 and iphone 5. Earthquake
should help it eventually.
30 is kind support. |
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n**********8
发帖数: 340 | 27 Q1 FY12 Earnings Release
Apple plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its
first fiscal quarter on Tuesday, January 24, 2012 at 2:00 p.m. PT
5pm est.
肯定是1/24. Please check: http://investor.apple.com/ |
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s***y
发帖数: 92 | 28 Q2 beat
不过对Q3和FY12的预测低于预期
不知道玩的是啥，估计智能手机市场不看好了。。。 |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 29 Whole Foods Markets (WFM): FQ3 EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $2.
73B (+14% Y/Y) in-line. Guides FY12 EPS higher. Shares +8% AH. |
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x********u
发帖数: 106 | 30 马上就要到FY12了，请问有没有知道应该赶在9月底递交140申请好，还是等到10月初好
？ 先谢了！ |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 33
从开始的32K+ 待批I485 ;到目前的8.2K+的待批I485，已经是解决了3/4. 应该还有6～
7K的SO可用。所以最坏也就剩下2K的大潮遗留案，进入FY12. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 34 还是不够保守啊。
不过，现在的剩余的大致8K也已构成FY12 的 demand inventory; 有任何可用的FY 11
SO（我是说愿意放到EB2上的），也是不会无处可用的。 |
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J*****e
发帖数: 422 | 35 Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India
and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-
485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus
, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485
cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case
filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and
adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is uti... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********n
发帖数: 2975 | 36 that means there is no more advance in near future
O still use 2800/12 to calculate VB.
Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India
and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-
485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus
, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485
cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case
filings. Since there is a lag between ... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******p
发帖数: 2525 | 37 什么叫再多等一年？？？全世界06前eb3加起来就只有46000，FY12肯定到05后期，10月
11月样子，而没有3012，eb3c只能到05前期 |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 38 现在重要的是FY12 SO 有多少. 30K+的话,08年的PD 可以12年夏天如期清完.
然后就是为FY13建立库存;09 的PD 的数量是这几年最低的,所以,会前进很快,年底前就
可能到6月以后.
个人意见. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 39 That is right....now what matters is time. Earlier is better - more numbers
could be taken from ROWers in FY12, and then less waiting or pressure
to FY13. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 40 拖得越晚,关键是ROW 会多拿到些FY12的名额.那对08,09PD就没有什么太大帮助了. |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 41 你这个估计不是保守，是太乐观了：
1. Senate12月1月不上班，最快明年2月末3月初通过，到那时FY2012已经过了一半，正
常算FY2012的3万多名额早已被ROW用去一半。
2. 如果通过，未来2-3年会有大量中印EB3升级，他们排期早，生一个拿一个。这你也
没算。
唯一不确定因素就是SO。这个老中能分到多少很难预料。
现在看除了SO，老中的名额。FY12拿一半：2500，FY13拿5000，FY14中旬（2014年3月
）拿2500。这时正好是1万名额。
按你的数据，08,09,10三年老中demand一共是94000，可以说在没有SO，并且不算EB3升
级的情况下，要到2014年3月才能清空2010年的demand。
至于SO和升级到底有多少，不同人有不同看法。不过上面的分析是基于老中guarantee
的名额，是大前提。至于你说的2012年能清空09年，基本是不现实的。 |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 42 Helsinki的估计不是保守，是太乐观了：
1. Senate12月1月不上班，最快明年2月末3月初通过，到那时FY2012已经过了一半，
正常算FY2012的3万多名额早已被ROW用去一半（老中的5000名额剩下2500）。
2. 如果通过，未来2-3年会有大量中印EB3升级，他们排期早，生一个拿一个。
这点Helsinki也没算。
不确定因素是SO和升级。
现在看除了SO、升级，老中的名额：FY12拿一半：2500，FY13拿5000，
到FY14中旬（2014年3月）拿2500。这时正好是1万名额。
按Helsinki的demand数据，08,09,10三年老中demand一共是9400，
可以说在没有SO，并且不算EB3升级的情况下，
要到2014年3月才能清空2010年的demand。
至于SO和升级到底有多少，不同人有不同看法。不过上面的分析是基于老中guarantee
的名额。2014年上半年清空2010年的demand是个基准,剩下SO和升级的因素每个人可以
按自己倾向去估计。
至于所谓2012年能清空09年，基本是不现实的。
【如果想清空2011年，按Helsink... 阅读全帖 |
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d1
发帖数: 1213 | 43 每天在外面说中国人数学好。。。真失望，你的3012过了还不到7％，还发这么多贴。
。。。
Helsinki的估计不是保守，是太乐观了：
1. Senate12月1月不上班，最快明年2月末3月初通过，到那时FY2012已经过了一半，
正常算FY2012的3万多名额早已被ROW用去一半（老中的5000名额剩下2500）。
2. 如果通过，未来2-3年会有大量中印EB3升级，他们排期早，生一个拿一个。
这点Helsinki也没算。
不确定因素是SO和升级。
现在看除了SO、升级，老中的名额：FY12拿一半：2500，FY13拿5000，
到FY14中旬（2014年3月）拿2500。这时正好是1万名额。
按Helsinki的demand数据，08,09,10三年老中demand一共是9400，
可以说在没有SO，并且不算EB3升级的情况下，
要到2014年3月才能清空2010年的demand。
至于SO和升级到底有多少，不同人有不同看法。不过上面的分析是基于老中guarantee
的名额。2014年上半年清空2010年的demand是个基准,剩下SO和升级的因素每个人可以
按自己倾向去估计。... 阅读全帖 |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 44 Besides the demands, also based on the estimation on SO of this FY. It looks
they believe the SO is large (at least at the same level of last), and
submitted demands are far lower than they expected.
EB2C PD09 are not many....but not expect all 09PDs could be current in FY12.
Instead the regression is a more realistic thing to think about.... |
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W******t
发帖数: 846 | 45 我干, 我疯狂的居然找到了正确答案, Q1' FY 2012 EB交的485 receipts:
OCT'11 - 8,497
NOV'11 - 11,925
DEC'11 - 15,023 (其中EB-2 IC占了11,287)
总共 35,445.
剩下5千不到的visa, 还有1个多月才到3月底 (Q2'FY12), 才能有新的visa availalbe.
结论:
1. DEC'11的485最多, 目前才批准到12月中, 估计要3-4个礼拜才能批到1月485.
2. 谣言接近实际数字, Q1的EB visa number接近4万, 当然你也可以像CO一样说 Over
30 thousand (31,514 visa used.)
3. 3月开始会有少数幸运的1月本帖485批准, 3/10号左右VB出来后, 看是否仍旧
current. 如果仍然current, 那么4月/5月会有很多1月的批准.
妈的oany我太崇拜你了! |
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W******t
发帖数: 846 | 46 2/28, 根据longyuante的扫描结果,
LIN1290238958 - LIN1290239958, 1000个号码中有176个485, 那么权作20%处理. 有2
个485 Card/ Document Production , 1290239326, 1290239893, 占1.1%, 估计是EB-1
, 忽略不计....
LIN1290239326
Card/ Document Production
On February 28, 2012, we mailed the new card directly to the address we have
on file. You should receive your new card within 30 days. If you do not, or
if you move before you get it, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
LIN1290239893
Decision
On February 28, 2012, we mailed you a not... 阅读全帖 |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 47 你是真看帖不仔细，还是你故意回避问题+误解我的观点？
1. 我一个字都没有说现在应该批准2007年7月以后的PD，我说的是7月以后的PD会占用
2012财年的名额(而且从第2季度开始，第1季度的已经全部给大潮前了)
2. 你回避了另一个重要问题：现在（2012年1月）仍然在批准大潮以前的case。这说明
1）大潮前的case还没批完，2）2012财年第一季度的名额已经全部给了大潮前的PD
我从来没说现在没批准大潮后的PD是因为名额不够用。我的观点是FY12的名额会被大潮
前以及2007年7月以后12月以前的PD占掉很大比例。这个比例介于25% - 50%之间，可能
更加贴近50%. |
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w*******t
发帖数: 2459 | 48 那样的10/11PDers到时候会说08/09PDers夹三了...
现在关键是USCIS的485批件速度, 少批一个,FY12就可能浪费一个. |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 49 1. 首先FY12 EB2名额用完的信息是从哪里得到的？你大概提一下就可以，没有任何副
作用，大家也没法跑去追问。
2. 这个信息明显违背常理，因为ROW之后怎么办？EB1的SO怎么会现在就确定？
Helsinki是本版老油条，做事历来以踏实负责著称。关于如上疑问请赐教。 |
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