l********r
发帖数: 868 | 1 btw，it's possible that the button held pocket As. To mix up his play,
sometimes he doesn't want to re-raise you preflop. And after the flop, his
set is almost as good as nuts and can afford some slowplay. So pocket As is
also another possiblity.
not |
|
l********r
发帖数: 868 | 2 If he held pocket 2s, he would fold preflop. so that's very unlikely. |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 3 You were at early position and you raised preflop. But you checked on the
flop. So I think he knew you had a pocket pair but it's not As. A bluff is
indeed possible. If he had 45, logically he wanted to just call or double
your bet, but sometimes people do push all-in, esp from bad players. From
your description he might be a bad player so you need to be careful about
this possiblity.
didn |
|
l********r
发帖数: 868 | 4 To get his remaining chips ($500), you need a 7 or 8 on the river (with just
2-pair I don't think you can push that hard). So your implied odds is (225+
preflop bet+500):75, or about 10:1. You have 4 outs, 46:4 is about 11:1.
This doesn't seem to be a good call ah.
I |
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s**h
发帖数: 262 | 5 我们只有5个人,short-handed game是不一样的,很多hand值得preflop raise的 |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 6 Were they blinds or limped in first then called your preflop raise?
I probably would fold no matter what the answer is, though. If you bluff,
you need to re-raise to about $300. Is it like all-in?
Really don't like the chance.
folded. |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 7 AA是最没有想象力的“烂”牌，preflop唬不走人，就等着人家蒸蒸日上吧，呵呵。 |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 8 your analysis on the first hand is different from what I thought. I thought
he may be showing off his J9 to his friend. But I think your reasoning makes
more sense. people tend to hide their monster hand.
if a person that seldom talks raises preflop and starts to joke around, be
careful. he may be holding pocket A's or something. some people have that
change when flopping a monster, too.
flop.
he
$ |
|
l********r
发帖数: 868 | 9 If he had AA/KK/QQ he may raise preflop.
If he had AK he may raise after flop.
It seems he holds JT or AK (JT more likely), and in either case, you're beat
on the turn.
$205 more is a lot. I would fold. |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 10 I put him on QdJd at first. Q2 is not a very good call preflop. |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 11 纸上谈兵出去会死得很惨，这点我同意。其实我现在都后怕，当时就读了点书，怎么就
能赢呢？那次运气也不是特别好，我的结论就是对手太差，以后不一定有那么幸运的事
情了。
melonli帖出来的hands，很多我们只能就事而论，他试图尽量加一些关于对手的印象等
，这时候就可以考虑这些因素，进行变通了。其实好的书，没有只谈数学的，无论如何
强调当时的筹码，位置，对手情况都是不为过的。从这个意义上来说，follow这样的书
的指导，其实是不错的。
我印象比较深的是David的以错误换错误论，以及完美理论不存在论。中间很多东西都
是很有道理的。我其实是非常注重书本和实际的偏差，才对real money play如此慎重
的。电视上的也一样，WSOP几乎是最坏的教材，因为剪切的很厉害。
举个例子，那天我好不容易和melonli有了一次玩的机会，虽然是play money，但我尽
量当作真钱（但实际做不到了，首先他的玩法会因为这是假钱而有很大偏差）。我相信
melonli一开始是认可我有一定实力的，因为我在板上分析过他的很多牌。但是一开始
，我基本上都是在preflop或flop上fold，他当然有bl |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 12 嗯，俺是A3o, preflop quiet, flop AAK, 老黑bet $15，俺raise到$30，后面居然还
有2个call的(搞得俺还有一点点担心kicker)，老黑当然也call. turn A，老黑ALL IN
$86，俺估计后面那俩没人会跟了，call...... 老黑念念有词，“got to be a split
pot ...”，话音未落，俺把A3就砸在了桌上 ...... 唯一效果是 -- 后面半小时再没
人敢和俺heads up了(倒也没什么好牌就是了)。 |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 13 For the "I-have-to-bet" part, do you mean "I-have-to-call" your all-in?
He doesn't have to call your all-in actually. The pot is about 170 and he
has 70 left. The board is coordinated and has a staright possibility. It's
kind of dangerous.
But what I don't understand is the preflop actions in your two hands. The
raises are $15 or $20, very large compared to the blinds. How could so many
people called so loosely? Maybe you guys are thinking in terms of absolute $
amount rather than the multiple o |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 14 1. you need 100 to call a 430 pot. first, no matter what he holds, I'll call
. The pot odds is just too good. If he held top pair, he would likely bet on
flop. He didn't raise on the turn, so he probably didn't have two-pair such
as 96 or 63 (he's a loose guy so his preflop action couldn't rule out 63
completely). Then, he actually could only hold two kinds of cards: 3x or
pocket pair such as 10's.
He may hold 3 10% of the time at most because he called both flop and turn
- that's too lose. I wo |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 15 uh? you said the loose guy bet $30 preflop. If it's $20, then your turn bet
was strong enough. But his behavior made sense too. He figured his bottom
pair was too weak to bluff (maybe you often check raise and he's afraid of
it). On the turn, he decided to stay around because he's loose :)
It's good for him that another A didn't come, or he could lose all of his
chips.
Again, it's a no brainer call since it's quite cheap. Losing such hand
actually reflects the power of loose and aggressive play. |
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l********r
发帖数: 868 | 16 If he's on flush or open ended straight draw, you are slightly ahead.
If he's on both draws, he's ahead.
If he holds a set, he probably won't bet so much on flop, and may just
smoothly call your check raise.
If he just holds one pair of J, he may fold rather than all-in. (He could
have a decent kicker such as QJ but AJ is unlikely since he might raise
preflop with it).
So, most likely he's on a draw. Call and pray. If you fold, you still can do
some damage with $600 so I don't think that's a bad |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 17 lucky bastard.
bet $16 preflop with 33? god bless him next time. |
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j**y
发帖数: 7014 | 18 I will call!
I do not think he will call $20 preflop with 45s,34s,A4s,74s.
and his action does not look like he has monster hand like KK,AA or 77. |
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p*****l
发帖数: 399 | 19 It's unlikely he had KK, AA, I don't think any good player under normal
cirumstances woudn't reraise preflop after a raise was cold called by 4
callers.
Is there two suited cards on board?
If he's aggressive, he can go all in on a draw, like 56, if he also had a
flush draw, then most people can't lay down such a big draw and will have to
go all in.
His range can be overpairs, but smaller than queens, trip 4s, or pair of 7's
, and very small chance, pockets 7's and pocket 4s. Depending on your re |
|
A**U
发帖数: 1116 | 20 裤衩都输了。
冇办法啊。最后一手AA under the gun，preflop raised to 12，got 4 callers......
flop QT7, QT of clubs, I went all-in with remaining $40+ and still get a
caller with K9 of clubs... |
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s**h
发帖数: 262 | 21 preflop,reraiser的table image太烂,后面的因为前面有三个在pot里,手里的marginal
hand因为有足够的pot odds也call了,这种现象在2/5NL里经常发生,姑且称为chain
reaction吧
至于postflop,因为是multiway action,大家都miss flop,相互顾忌,不过想想他们手中
的牌会是什么,也挺搞笑的 |
|
A**U
发帖数: 1116 | 22 最臭的一把把:
AA preflop, late position. Raised to 9. One caller.
Flop AKJ of hearts. Caller bet 20. I called.
Turn 7 of club. Bet 20. I called.
River 2 of heart. Bet 20. I folded.
The other guy showed 55, with 5 high flush.
flop |
|
p*****l
发帖数: 399 | 23 today I played a very lucky hand in the casino. I limped in middle position
with pocket 7's after two limpers, the cutoff limped too, then the LAG on
the button raised, two blinds and both limpers and I called, surprisingly,
the CO made it 3 bets. Everyone called again. So 7 people put in 3 bets
preflop.
The flop came As9s7d , I flopped bottom set, but two spades on board. I bet
out with the intention of either button or CO making 2 bets to chase people
away. CO called, not surprisingly, button |
|
j**y
发帖数: 7014 | 24 AK的话preflop才20,而且4-5个call的
难道他不应该reraise到50或者100嘛? |
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A**U
发帖数: 1116 | 25 I re-raised to 21 pre-flop and got two callers. I would expect one of them
to have hands like AQ or AK. Anyway, I was wrong.
The crazy part was both of them were on draws (the 23 suited had no business
to call 21 chip raise preflop and the TJ had very small odds on the turn
even he was open ended.) and both got it on the river. |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 26 这种情况,我曾经专门想过.
就10个人来说,概率上有好几个人能在flop上中一对.所以如果手里只有一对5,那么就是
被宰的对象.人家一bet,你就得跑.
如果是台上只有三,四个人跟,并且这几个人的习惯是手里有A才跟,那么他们几个A对死
的情况会有,但是也不能大到你的一对5能占优势的程度.
如果两个人打,你有一对5,对方A,9 preflop,你是稍占优势(55% vs 45%).
如果三个人打,第三个人是A,10,他们的A对死了,却多出一张10.所以应该是你稍占劣势.
(poker calculator 计算结果是 5,5:44%; A,10: 32%; A,9: 19%, so their combined
proability of 51% vs your 44%).
超过三个人跟就是别人占大优势了.
小牌 |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 27 7c2c, 6.6% chance to get flush preflop.On flop 4.2% to get flush.On turn 19.
6%.
It was a bad beat for him.
.. |
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i***g
发帖数: 80 | 28 他们在说wsop。这个本来是RaiN的错结果变成了他的double up。没办法运气的事。长
久来讲运气每个人都会光顾一下所以技术还是越高越好，高到一定程度，就能长期盈利
了。毕竟细分到每一手，还是赌博。这种preflop AA all in 被灭，也是没办法的事。
这种二愣子的牌之所以经典就因为出现概率还是很小。打牌打久了就比的是心态了。每
手输了不要想冤不冤，想想自己打错没有就释怀了。因为打久了，也会出现你badbeat
别人的情况。
那个谈论的大毛是一个高手。 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 29 hehe, met a bastard yesterday.
1/2NL.
he raised $20 preflop, one guy called, i called (Ad6d);
flop 9d3d6s, he raised another $60 without thinking. the other guy thought
for a minute and said all-in ($125)...... f**k, i put him on big pair or AK
or pure bluffing, but not sure about the other guy (2 pair or set, he looks
like a tight/smart/serious indian guy).
i thought for a while and called ((my second hand on this table and i made a
mistake!)
he called too.
turn's a blank.
river was Ac. neither |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 30 He is either 2 pair(Q10,or Q8),triple,or a straight.
But that river allin make him very like to be a straight.(if he is 6,9, should not raise preflop)
all |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 31 You are right.
He raise preflop, and he increase bet from $12 to $32 after see 7, that
makes it look like a triple 7.But I would not allin with a triple,
especially when the opponent reraise me so high.A triple only deserve a call
.If he is 6,9, only deserve a call too. |
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p*****l
发帖数: 399 | 32 Of course, if anyone behind you go all in on the flop, you'll have some
tough decision. More often than not, the preflop raiser wouldn't have the
flush.
turn. |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 33 Almost all poker players do that(bet under 1/2 kelly's value)without
knowledge of Kelly criterion.
That is due to poker structure.
If you allin preflop with AA, then you have 80% odds, by Kelly criterion you
should bet 60%(or less) of your bankroll.How much % of bankroll a normal
player put into a game? If anyone put 60% of his bankroll into a game, he
knows his bankroll is in danger,this is so straightforword, and most people
can understand the risk by instinct.
If a player really wants to mak |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 34 NL200
out of position vs a very loose guy.
he bet 7$ on the botton( he preflop raise alot)
I reraise to 24$ , he called.
flop KQ2 no flush draw. I checked, he checked on the position.
turn is 3 still no flush draw, I bet 44$, he called instantly, river is 8
I checked he bet 85$, is it a bluff? why he check and call on the turn but
bet out on an 8?? |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 35 他JJ preflop allin, 我就call.
straight flush那个flop 5,6,7 同花,他手里8,9,我手里同花with ace.然后就raise,
reraise.
cash game swing比较大.我这人有点怕swing大的,所以一直打SNG. |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 36 其实有个不错的策略，比如你就买最小的buy-in, 20-40 bb, 只玩AA到77以及AK,
基本上raise preflop之后，在flop上面和对手all in, (当然如果AK没hit到pair,
或者77bottom pair就放弃了), 这么下来，赢的概率还是很大的。
有资
赌场
程是 |
|
p*t
发帖数: 275 | 37 他的preflop$8是call还是raise？我感觉你应该raise allin。很可能你们都是AK。如
果他是flush draw，没啥好怕的。如果他是set 6/7，只能认倒霉了。 |
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p*t
发帖数: 275 | 38 AA preflop re-raise你可能性较大，所以66，77更可能。但他只有100了，你call了
turn上也没法得到更多信息（他肯定allin），所以只能fold或allin了。他拿到set的
话，slowplay你的可能性比较大。现在更可能是flush draw or Ax. |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 39 对方call.flop small cards rainbow.
我bet 5XBB, 对方 raise 3 X my bet.这时候我应该如何?
对方应该是pocket pair,可能比我小,也可能比我大.如果call的话,接下来allin不可避
免.
我觉得应该放弃.
吃过几次亏,输给KK,AA. |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 40 how about pre-flop? there shouldn't be so quiet with QQ, KK, AA, etc.
after flop, too many new stories. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 41 i know.
another factor, position, i would tend to bet some $30 in late position to
test.
QQ, JJ, even KK sometimes, i would try to finish the game as soon as
possible, better pre-flop. 20% of time i slow play, even with AA. |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 42 His weakest possible hand could be AQ.
If he had KK he could reraise you preflop.
If one is too aggressive, he could allin with AQ, but for a normal guy, allin
is an overplay.
More likely he had a full house( two pairs when he reraised you). |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 43 the checkraise bet is probably too big, your AK is objectively not a strong
hand, so I'd just raise about 20-24 if I decide to do checkraise.
His call then all in
should show a very strong hand, you have an easy fold here if
his all in bet is huge.
Also, if he's superaggressive, you should probably reraise preflop
and hope to win the pot there. AK out of position is not easy
to play. If he's a very solid player, you can even fold AK here
because of positional disadvantage, another choice is to g |
|
i********r
发帖数: 1153 | 44
我还没全看完，讲一下我的看法。
Preflop is OK. Reraise will define the situation better, postflop play will
proabably be easier for you. I don't think call is wrong, reraise will
probably better if your opponent's postflop play is solid though.
check raise is fine, your raise is too big, without a specific reason your
raise shouldn't be larger than the pot usually. Mathmatically, pot size bet
is large enough to make most of the draws wrong to call, larger than that is
useless. You might make them make a bigge |
|
w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 45 Since he didn't raise preflop, he should have no pair.
Most likely he had like J,10, or a big s( Q, K, A). So if he call $10, he
would also call $20. If he don't call $20, he would not call $10 either.
Actually when I made such bet, I always watch their action closely, and
ready to fold if their reaction too strong. That's why I choose small bet. |
|
I**n
发帖数: 839 | 46 实地赌场玩多了 各种牌形见怪不怪了 不比online的逊色
像这样69T的 有人all in 尤其是low limit 基本上就是78
我昨天Js raise preflop, flops the top set, then got 3-way re-reraise 果然有
人made straight, 还有一把 K58 rainbow, I had two pairs, 6 falls on the turn,
一人突然发难 raise, re-raise, 我其实担心4，9 可是low limit只要有人发难 基本
上就是nuts 后来果然是79
其他像是27o runner runner two pairs什么昨天就碰到好几次 NND people literally
plays Everything, and chase everything to the river for the low limit game
了， |
|
w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 47 I would call.
I guess he was A,5, that's why he paused after see a pair of Ks.
Guess he was two pair when he made check raise,but was not A,K, since he didn't reraise preflop.Either A,5, or K,5,a little more like A,5, and the pot is too big to abandon.
Kd,
river |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 48 A5 would explain flop check-raise, but river $77 was like suicide then...
melonli got at least an A for sure.
didn't reraise preflop.Either A,5, or K,5,a little more like A,5, and the
pot is too big to abandon. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 49 hard to say, but safe for you.
3.5BB? the way that ppl play in AC might be diff. for such a hand, or even
QQ, JJ, TT, ppl would normally bet $15-30 (depends on position) in 1/2NL
game, which is 7.5-15 times BB. some agrressive ppl would even bet so much
on 88, 77, 66 since they can't afford to let others see flop.
so if you play with me in AC with such a "small" raise, 50% chance i would
re-raise you as the other guy did. most ppl here with KK would definitely
call the re-raise and see flop at l |
|
i********r
发帖数: 1153 | 50 man...
pocket QQ, should not do this( unless he play very loose).If I call, he is
likely to bet like 10-15 times BB on flop( no matter he was AA or QQ), and
that would be tough for me to decide. |
|
