p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 1 有人买 JCP 无非是希望有 big percentage 回报， 希望像当初的 BAC, or C.
但 JCP 跟 BAC/C 完全不一样。 美国政府会出手救 BAC/C. 不会救JCP.
JCP business 的 竟争要大的多了(from online stores to Macy's, Kohls, Ross
/TJMax). 网上商店的流行导致几家运行不好的实体店的倒闭那是很自然。
回到主题，已经有了 JCP 的，或在找 big percentage 怎么办 ？看一下这篇文章。
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/collect-7-yield-while-beaten-1600
要得到 3X 的回报可能不是那么容易，但是 up 50% in 6-12 months 是很容易的 .
在 12-18月 翻个倍是很有可能。 有 JCP 的话，换 PWE 吧.
我来说说我对 PWE 的基本面的看法(我打中文太慢了，换英文了）。
* PWE valuation is lower than JCP based on the PB ratio (0.4 vs ... 阅读全帖 |
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t***j
发帖数: 2620 | 2 things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
some money, but shares maybe not.
If PWE sell their... 阅读全帖 |
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t***j
发帖数: 2620 | 3 things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
some money, but shares maybe not.
If PWE sell their... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 4 刚把我的 HES hold($45 进的） 卖了一半，
马上买了今年的衰油股，PWE, 明天是 ex-dividend date(6% dividend/year).
要进的话，今天是好时机。
PWE 有油，气田。不会像 tech stocks， out of favor 一下没人要了。
油田，气田总会有人要的。PWE 现在股价是它的 book value 的一半。
The stock should gain at least 50% to $12-$13 next year,
may be over 100% if it can sell some of the assets at good
price due to the gas price going up. |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 5 能给说明一下为啥pwe亏钱？
PWE natural gas多少，oil 占多少比例？
为啥搞natural gas CHK，搞 oil BP COP XOM都是赚钱的，他亏钱？
是他的管理一团糟，设备人工给关系户，然后随便给他们高价。
还是管理层给自己发几亿几十亿的bonus?
还是他的油井都是难开采的高成本的区？
如果natural gas 和oil下跌，先死就是PWE? |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 6 不知有没有人听了我的建议，把 JCP 换成 PWE 了。
我发帖时， PWE was trading at $7.30-$7.5.
今天突破了 $8.2 的 gap. Its chart looks good too.
再加一点有关它的基本面的。
大部分 PWE 的 assets are lands with oil and NG reserve.
这种 assets 随着时间会越来越贵。再加上现在 NG 和 oil 都涨的很好，
这些 assets 的价格也会越来越高。 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 7
value, value and value.
Last year overall market is too good, average 25-30% gain.
This year you won't see this type of gain. I would say maximum is around 10%
gain for overall market. So, this year only selected value stocks can
outperform big market. If you have others, could give more than 30% return
safely,
please share with me. I will do research to make decision.
The following is my post 2-3 month back. Most of points are still valid.
======================================================... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 8 还是我的心得，不做难的考卷，99分我也不要，只做最简单的卷子，求满分。
PWE对我来说太难。
发信人: able101 (able101), 信区: Stock
标 题: 经历了PWE的挫折，闭门思过一个半月，有了心得。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 4 09:13:37 2014, 美东)
七月的dip,主要是受pwe的影响，还好百分比不多。闭门思过一个半月，nnd又新高。
操股的心得，跟以前学习不一样，不求难，不求高深，不求挑战，只求不错。
可以挑最简单的，只要不错就行。
不做难的考卷，99分我也不要，只做最简单的卷子，求满分 |
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f*****a
发帖数: 693 | 9 PWE is cheaper, but is closer to bankruptcy.
SD ER on 2/26, today. PWE ER next Friday, Mar 6.
PWE, kui si le |
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f*****a
发帖数: 693 | 10 PWE is cheaper, but is closer to bankruptcy.
SD ER on 2/26, today. PWE ER next Friday, Mar 6.
PWE, kui si le |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 11
HESS 能继续往上涨的最重要的因素是它要 Spin off its gas station business.
The company is forced by major share holders to sell some assets,
return some capital to share holders(stock buy back program and
raising dividend). The assets selling is pretty much done except
the gas station in the US.
PWE is in the same situation like HES 2 years back.
It will have to sell some assets due to the share holders pressure for
the poor stock performance in the last 2 years.
Overall, I feel HES upside is limited, may be $90... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 12 我这两个重仓股（PWE 和 PAAS)开始涨了。
特别是 PWE 2013 年最后几天被 tax loss sale 压着，
使我一都犹豫要不要也 take loss.
我的均价是 $8.55左右。 12/31/2013 最低价是 $8.35. 因为我进了 两万多股，
paper loss 有 $4-$5K. 最后想了想还是不 take loss 了。
好了今天已全回来了，而且还赚了 $0.14 的 dividend（我是 ex-dividend date 前一
天进的）. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 13 in for a small position.
But you have to remember PWE is losing money and pays dividend of 130% of
cash flow for the past several years.
Also the oil and gas play for PWE is in the low margin place. Oil is about $
25 below Cushion spot price and similar situation for gas.
Short trade only. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 15 PWE has already hedged Natural gas at high 3 and low 4. They will not
participate in the gain. Most importantly, PWE plays are all in the low
margin area, that is why they are cash flow negative even with sky high oil
price. Remember they are 63% liquid and they are losing money. That is
horrible by whatever standard. CHK is only 30% liquid and is making money.
That is how bad ＰＷＥ ｉｓ．
Ｉ ａｇｒｅｅ ｔｈａｔ ｉｔ ｉｓ ｋｉｎｄ ｏｆ ｖａｌｕｅ ｐｌａｙ
ｄｕｅ ｔｏ ｈｉｇｈ ｄｉｖｉｄｅｎｄ ａｎｄ ａｓｓｅｔ ｖａｌｕｅ．
Ｉｎ ｓｍａｌｌ ａｍｏｕｎｔ ｆｏｒ ｓｈｏｒｔ ｔｅｒｍ ｔｒａｄｅ... 阅读全帖 |
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x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 16 别拿PWE和JCP比啊。。。比JCP强不是买入理由。虽然PWE我也买了点 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 17 明天ER，看好. PWE should be able to beat the number due to high oil/NG price
.
First Q oil price(WTI mostly) is above $100, NG is above $4.5.
PWE cannot sell oil at $100 price, but should be $5 better than
their original planed. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 18 Bad move.
PWE can go to teen easily as long as oil and NG price stays this level.
Plus PWE has over 5% dividend.
TSLA is one of the big bubble stocks. It could go to less than 100 easily if
the competition is coming. Actually, the competition is coming, BMW i3 and
i8 are good, and MB is also going to release an EV car. |
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x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 19 今天能到8不？
Penn West Petroleum beats by $0.23, beats on revenue • 7:23 AM
Mohit Manghnani, SA News Editor
Penn West Petroleum (NYSE:PWE): Q2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.23.
Revenue of $650M (-12.8% Y/Y) beats by $19.4M.
Penn West +4% after strong Q2, says no impact from financial restatement &#
8226; 8:09 AM
Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Penn West (NYSE:PWE) +4.1% premarket after Q2 earnings beat expectations and
says cash and debt balances were not affected by the financial restatement.
Says it r... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 20 昨天实在忍不住发了 email 给 PWE IR. 这个是 PWE 的回复。
大家看看如何，我也哭啊，均价 $8 进的。 前天把在 regular account
的 position 卖了 to take tax loss. 把年初卖 HES 和 PAAS 赚的钱给抹去
了很多，还有些 position 在 IRA/401K account 的, 就只能当股东了。
Thank you for your note and understand your concern
It has been some very tough weeks for Canadian energy securities with the
drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar. The Macro environment has been
hitting the E&P names quite hard over the last weeks and continues today.
Part of the reason PWT may be experienci... 阅读全帖 |
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B****n
发帖数: 1876 | 21 今天把8块均价的2000股PWE在4.85全部割肉出了。这次算我傻逼。
这里其他被套的同志自求多福吧，我是不会再碰这支鸡巴股票了。
另外，我操PWE庄家的18代祖宗！！！ |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 22 怎么倒在黎明前了呢？
这真的不怪PWE庄家，是油价。今天油价触底反弹了，PWE也要反弹了。目标8块！ |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 23 Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
business.
The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
the world supply will start to balanc... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 24 I agree financial crisis is not going to happen again this time around. But
what kills CHK at the time was not about financial crisis, it was the price
of natural gas and oil price.
The good news here is that PWE has been cutting debt and shrinking capex and
head count. That certainly will help extending the life line here. CHK was
caught swimming naked at the time, PWE was just ready to put on something.
Asset sale in the next several weeks will be the determine factor. We shall
see. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 25 Buy SD, sell PWE.
Net exposure is zero.
PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 26 Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
business.
The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
the world supply will start to balanc... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 27 I agree financial crisis is not going to happen again this time around. But
what kills CHK at the time was not about financial crisis, it was the price
of natural gas and oil price.
The good news here is that PWE has been cutting debt and shrinking capex and
head count. That certainly will help extending the life line here. CHK was
caught swimming naked at the time, PWE was just ready to put on something.
Asset sale in the next several weeks will be the determine factor. We shall
see. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 28 Buy SD, sell PWE.
Net exposure is zero.
PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 29 Tomorrow er might not be that bad since average Q3 price should be around 90
+. However it is the planning for next year that is scaring.
Management were too eager to turnaround and thus screwed up. They did not
hedge oil price and they did not sell the biggest piece of asset while oil
was still at 100+.
Now cash flow is a problem and debt is called into question. What they
should
do at $75 oil is to cut dividend 100% and capex by at least $200M. The
problem is that they will be punished badly i... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 30 我尽力了。还是有人前赴后继。
有人一定要死，pwe不是第一也是前几名的。
抄底pwe的要赶上sdrl了 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 31
我过去曾经拥有的 HES 也没有 hedge.
但它手上有大把 cash, $4B. 所以跌的不多。
我想 PWE 倒闭不可能. 它可以把 dividend 先割了，缩小资本投资，再卖些油田，
应该是没有问题活下来。 我想它本身的 board members 买了那么多 shares,
不会像 GTAT 那样走倒闭这条路的。
See all insider buy in the recent 2 months.
https://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=PWT
想想这 board chairman, George Richard 这两年在 PWE 上也真是亏大了，
他在 $10.x 花了几百万， 在 $8.x 又花了 half million dollars 买。
上个月又在 $4.x 加买。 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 32
我过去曾经拥有的 HES 也没有 hedge.
但它手上有大把 cash, $4B. 所以跌的不多。
我想 PWE 倒闭不可能. 它可以把 dividend 先割了，缩小资本投资，再卖些油田，
应该是没有问题活下来。 我想它本身的 board members 买了那么多 shares,
不会像 GTAT 那样走倒闭这条路的。
See all insider buy in the recent 2 months.
https://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=PWT
想想这 board chairman, George Richard 这两年在 PWE 上也真是亏大了，
他在 $10.x 花了几百万， 在 $8.x 又花了 half million dollars 买。
上个月又在 $4.x 加买。 |
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b***c
发帖数: 2280 | 33 buy 100 PWE @ 2.5
will add 200 PWE @ 1.00 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 34 I am kind of cheap, like to buy undervalued stocks because they usually give
much better percentage return. I expect it can be doubled in 2 years(
assuming oil price go back to $75-$80 level).
Also, psychologically I just treated as I didn't sell it at $5.x,
now I got more than double number of shares.
The oil price bust probably is good thing to many Canadian oil E&P companies
long term because there will be no more US shale oil investment in
next a couple of years. may be even no more investme... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 35 I agree with your asset analysis and that is why I value PWE asset level at
$2B instead of 0. I think at this point, 50% haircut is very conservative.
Based upon natural gas price movement since 2008, the quick bounce back will
be short lived. While everybody says that NG cost basis should be $6 back
in 2009, NG did not hit bottom for another 2.5 years until 2011 for less
than $2.
If you look at today's NG market, the strong ones like CHK and SWN still
makes money at below $3 while weak ones lik... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 36 上星期五 PWE 在 TSX(PWT) 的 volume 达到 40 million,
被拉上去，又被打下来，明显有大户出货, 另外 NG 也跌破 support.
今天一早把 PWE 给清了。 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 37 Thanks for the link.
Covenant issue will be fully priced in in the spring when everybody realizes
that oil price is not going to come back quickly.
However, I don't think the bank is going to call the debt even when the
covenant is breached. The best way for bank to recover money is for PWE to
ride out of the storm. Everybody is in the same boat and I bet that PWE is
not going to bankrupt.
Buying under 2 (to around 1) will be a reasonable bet. |
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d**********1
发帖数: 569 | 38 我也估计明年PWE怎么着也能上12了。要不就太坑了，share holder就没信心了。 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 40
希望如此吧。
今天我已经重仓 PWE 和 PAAS 了。 |
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x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 41 hero数据不错，就是太小，而且相对BOOK VALUE没有打折。在这个行业真是小杂毛一个
pwe book value很高，可以折腾掉一些没核心的 |
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x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 43 我挺看好PWE的。。。从公司的角度看，不应该发红利 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 44
The most important part is the price for the disposing assets.
Even some assets are sold at 80% of book value, they are still better
than current 40% of the market value.
Production reduction is somewhat expected when more assets are sold.
Overall, revenue will be smaller but margin should improve after some assets
are sold .
Energy company HES revenue dropped as much as 60% but stock more than
doubled after selling some assets. After HES sold some assets, it has money
to do share buyback and r... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 46 After some discussion about PWE yesterday here, it started moving up today.
这里有没有基金管理经理，或者是大富豪啊。还是只是巧合。
Let's see what price it will be closed at. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 47
就是, 前几天 NG 涨的那么高，它就是不动。
在这个价位没人愿意 sale, 最坏的情况，它不涨的话，就当买了 income fund 吧。
所以很小的量就会可以动很大。
Based on its previous earning data, PWE has around 38% revenue coming
from NG, and over 30% of NG is not locked to the long term(3 months
or 6 months) contract price.
The ER might not be very impressive for 2013 Q4, however the
2014 Q1 projection should be really good. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 48 PWE looks like 2012 HES, which had a lot of insider buy. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 49 在它的董事会主席，Richard 加买了 5万股自家的股票。 PWE 就一直往上走啊。
今天碰了一下 $9. |
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p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 50 Yes, I am still holding large position.
I even sold my PAAS after 40% gain from the end of last year, and
used money to add more PWE at around $8.35.
Target is still $11-12. |
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