l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 2010-05-12 18:02:37
早在2月便在本栏说过，欧盟就像战国时搞合纵的山东六国，“像鸡绑在一起不能安宁
”一样，从前“欧猪”疯狂借贷种下的祸根，现在就是整个欧罗区还债游戏的开始。到
今天狮子山学会的论调不变，更认为好戏在后头。
周一，欧盟高调宣布会动用7500亿欧罗，企图以震憾、“吓窒”（shock and awe）的
方式“打大鳄”，欧洲央行更会从二手市场买入主权国和企业债券。消息一出，当日全
球股市应声反弹，欧罗更曾从低位上升500点子。正所谓赶狗入 穷巷，投资者见欧盟有
如负伤的母狗般狂吠，当然要避一避风头。但在远方的我，一直吃着花生、注视着这场
可能比雷曼爆煲更恐怖的金融风暴，看见欧盟官员发疯 般的谩骂“炒家”，却无视自
己成员国胡乱挥霍以致如斯田地，心里极度不安，却一时无法说出是所为何事。
毕竟，自从2008年金融海啸后，各 国政府已向所有机构投资者低头，“大到不能倒下
（TBTF）”已是连街尾阿叔也有的共识，TBTF已衍生为“股市只可上升不可大跌”的保
证。当政府救市已 成为我们的日常用语，大小投资者又都视危机为入市良机，有钱齐
齐赚，皆大欢喜，心又有何不安 |
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g********r
发帖数: 1458 | 2 当年新政留下的很多政府机构，包括了SEC，现在都有人诟病（说到监管无力，最典型
的Madoff，和后来太多TBTF的银行）。但是这些政策或者机构本身不是危机的诱因。可
能在那个年代凯恩斯主义帮助经济发展，而罗斯福正好采用了合适的政策。
另外说到罗斯福的政治手腕，现在有历史学家分析是美国引诱（这词用的不好）日本首
先攻击美国，这样美国国内的不同政见就都统一了（别人都打过来了还吵吵什么），然
后把日本描绘成一个战争狂，进行打击。其实在日本开始占领满洲的时候，美国或多或
少的还在给日本出口一些原油，间接也在帮助日本发展。
刚才有人说罗斯福出身世家，成绩一般。成绩首先不说明什么问题，罗斯福在哈佛可是
校报主编，这本身也是说明实力的，再说罗斯福的原话‘后来发现学的经济学的东西都
是错的’，那是不是幸亏没学好？他倒是法学博士，后来也常调侃说那些东西白学，学
什么知识不重要，关键是人能够用到。 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 3 1. 肢解公共领域工会（警察、消防队、政府雇员、教师）
2. 肢解TBTF级别的银行（ＢＡＣ，ＪＰＭ，Ｃ，ＷＦＣ，ＨＳＢＣ，ＧＳ，ＭＳ，Ｕ
ＳＢ，ＢＫ） |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 4 那是因为美国政府是权力的投射（projection），而非权力自身。美国的权力核心是军
工集团（MIC）和花街。
前台傀儡无论如何变幻，后台岿然不动。
MIC可以指挥政府为一个谎言发动一场战争，花掉三万亿，牺牲几千美国大兵，导致美
国债台高筑，但是有人为此负责为此坐牢吗？没有。
花街也可以左右政府财政政策，导致美国乃至全世界陷入衰退泥坑，自己坐拥千亿财富
，还花掉美国纳税人几千亿来挽救那些TBTF（too-big-too-fail），全世界要为此埋单
，血汗工厂工人失业，班克们照样拿亿万花红，有一个人为此负责坐牢吗？也没有。
这样的一个制度，从保护MIC和华尔街的角度说，的确是做的很很好。所以说，中国的
确有可能滑到这样一步，导致那些瓜分了亿万国有资产，垄断了政治资源经济资源的各
路权贵先富们，从此造就千秋大业，子子孙孙传下去。 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 5 Concerning Trumponomics in the coming year when he becomes Potus :
1° The reign of Putin as Taras Bulba of Syria and of Oligarchy big oil
outside the US is now a given.
The Duck won't change that.
Putin will rule in ME thanks to the Iran connection and even Erdogan wants
to join his PIVOT to Asia as pardner in fossil and new currency alliance
which discards petrodollar down the road.
For Trump this is a linch pin to bringing down his print to infinity game to
invest 1 trilion $ + in infrastructu... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 6 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: beijingren (to thine own self be true), 信区: Military
标 题: 床铺台湾电话就是要尝试阻止美元崩溃，并且破坏席大的一路一带
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Dec 4 19:52:08 2016, 美东)
Concerning Trumponomics in the coming year when he becomes Potus :
1° The reign of Putin as Taras Bulba of Syria and of Oligarchy big oil
outside the US is now a given.
The Duck won't change that.
Putin will rule in ME thanks to the Iran connection and even Erdogan wants
to join his PIVOT to Asia as pardner in fossil and new currency... 阅读全帖 |
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p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 7 i think several others have addressed this topic well, but it can be
summarized briefly as below:
1. some stable economic growth period; with hindsight, people are thinking
we are entering another growth highway
2. asset pricing bubble starts to emerge; wealth effect leads to more
consumption and hence even higher asset valuation
3. speculators start to leverage up
4. ordinary folks start to pile up
5. prices start going parabolic
6. asset valuation goes too high such that at least one of the be... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 8 And the "fighting" has no details so far, even it's going to be carried as "
planned", it does not address the TBTF problem. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 9
No painless solutions. The right one is to let PIIGS default on the debt
and their creditors take the loss. Losers lose, winners win. That's how
capitalism works.
The trouble is German and French banks have a lot of exposure in these
nations. They are hooked up w/ each other on derivatives. A big loss to
certain bank could trigger a Lehman moment. TBTF all over again. Like I
said, it's Fall 2008 European edition. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 10 "Citi is a billion shares of nothing."
LOL. Another way of saying C, as well as every other TBTF, is a delisting
like FNM/FRM waiting to happen. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 11 Guest Post: Plaza Accord 2.0: Is it Coming? Is it Here?
October 15th, 2010 by Michael Krieger
If we desire respect for the law, we must first make the law respectable.
The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of
zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.
Experience teaches us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the
government’s purposes are beneficent.
Fear of serious injury alone cannot justify oppression of free speech and
assembly. Men feared witch... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 13 对大银行，还有一个利空：Libor丑闻。就等官司开打了。
这可能是压倒TBTF的最后一根稻草。。。 |
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R****r
发帖数: 609 | 14 It has outperformed other TBTFs since Jamie bought some. Hope it will go up
in next couple of days. |
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R****r
发帖数: 609 | 15 top 4 TBTFs are still there. |
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l*****t
发帖数: 8319 | 17 nm。。。bac今天赔几十个逼。。明天赔十几个逼。。。维持现在的股价已经不错了。
。。tbtf就算专治bac。。。 |
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d******5
发帖数: 4273 | 18 Financials lead market higher as rates shoot higher
Jun 22 2015, 14:44 ET
Financials sunk along with Treasury yields last week, but are seeing a
strong bounce today alongside a ten basis point gain in the 10-year yield to
2.36%.
The XLF is up 1.6% versus the S&P 500's 0.7% gain.
Helping U.S. equity markets is movement toward a Greek debt deal which sent
Europe's Stoxx 50 hurtling 4% higher on the session. Yields tumbled in the
periphery, but are sharply higher in Germany as well as the U.S.
Yiel... 阅读全帖 |
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d******5
发帖数: 4273 | 19 Financials lead market higher as rates shoot higher
Jun 22 2015, 14:44 ET
Financials sunk along with Treasury yields last week, but are seeing a
strong bounce today alongside a ten basis point gain in the 10-year yield to
2.36%.
The XLF is up 1.6% versus the S&P 500's 0.7% gain.
Helping U.S. equity markets is movement toward a Greek debt deal which sent
Europe's Stoxx 50 hurtling 4% higher on the session. Yields tumbled in the
periphery, but are sharply higher in Germany as well as the U.S.
Yiel... 阅读全帖 |
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x*******e
发帖数: 1517 | 20 7.8B
盘后彪了 3.5%
Passing the CCAR by the widest margin of all the TBTF banks, Citigroup (NYSE
:C) lifts its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.01, and sets a
buyback program of up to $7.8B through the end of 2016 Q2. The new
annualized dividend yield is 0.38%. |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 21 ObamaCare's biggest problem is that it will dramatically increase the
national debt (deficit) and bankrupt the country, unless it raises more tax.
..
In fact, the whole Dem platform is to make the government TBTF - taxpayers
have to bail it out sooner or later... |
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r*******u
发帖数: 8732 | 22 金融海啸演义之七 格老与鲍尔森：海啸两大元凶？
[2008-11-13]
作者﹕罗安邦
谈到这次金融海啸究竟责任谁属，我认为归根究柢在於贪婪。前文提及，美国次按危机
是金融海啸源头，但为甚么会出现这现象呢？投资者追求最高利润，甘冒高风险而投资
於次按债券。投资银行早就养成贪婪作风，通过槓桿炒作造成乘数效应，最终加剧打击
经济。
另外，没有经济能力负担房屋按揭的消费者，並不理会个人置业能力，在房市中盲目追
高摸顶，希望从中图利，倒头来都弄得焦头烂额。形成了今天每十个美国置业者当中，
就有一人应付不了按揭，甚至连供息能力也缺乏的局面，境况堪虞。
造成美国次按的祸根，我认为美国前联储局主席格林斯潘是不折不扣的罪魁祸首，因为
他是整个政策后面的总工程师。2001年「9‧11」发生后，他一手制订大幅减息政
策刺激经济，全力开动內需火车头，大量资金流入房贷市场，楼价大升，结果导致內部
经济过热，要透过先后17次加息始能降温；而加息使房市在两年前应声下跌，加速后来
次按危机的出现。
格老的第二大罪状，就是把美国国家的经济，无论內部消费或对外债务都无限扩大，造
成所谓TBTF（TOO-BI |
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