w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 1 May 17, 2012, 12:12 P.M. ET
Shares of Apple (AAPL) are weaker than the overall market this morning,
falling $14.15, or 2.6%, to $531.93 compared to the 1.4% drop in the Nasdaq
Composite Index.
One rumor making the rounds this morning is that funds may be trimming their
position in Apple in order to prepare to re-weight their index
representation to accomodate Facebook, which will at some point be added to
indices after it goes public tomorrow morning.
Some of this thinking may be prompted by negative remarks from hedge funds,
although the hedge fund view is hardly monolithic.
Bloomberg‘s Adam Satariano this morning writes that Apple shares have “
lost favor” with some hedge funds, including SAC Capital and Viking Global.
However, as my colleague Avi Salzman reported here last night, David Einhorn
of Greenlight Capital offered a spirited defense of Apple yesterday at the
Ira Sohn investment conference in New York. As I noted on Tuesday,
Greenlight kept all its Apple shares last quarter.
But the thought apparently floating behind some of this is that Facebook may
prompt funds in general to trim Apple positions, and some funds might even
take some profits on Apple stock to raise money if they need it, to buy
their Facebook shares.
James Kelleher with Argus Research, who rates Apple shares a Buy with a $670
price target, is skeptical of the Facebook angle.
He acknowledges that at some point, Facebook may become part of the MSCI,
for example, perhaps making up 1%, similar to Intel (INTC), which has a $132
billion market cap, just above what Facebook could fetch in the market
after its offering.
With Apple representing perhaps 4% of the MSCI, he notes, one could
conceivably trim some Apple stock to accommodate the addition of Facebook.
Kelleher knows of at least one large institutional client that has an
allocation put in for Facebook shares.
However, that client is not mentioning Apple at all, he tells me, and the
client is aware that index committees take quite some time to add a stock to
an index, so there’s no reason to rush.
He has heard of other, smaller funds that might actually need to raise cash
to buy Facebook, and so it’s conceivable those parties might need to take
profits on Apple to do so.
But, asks Kelleher, “Why would Apple be the one you’d want to sell?”
after a $100 drop from $640 per share?
Why not, he suggests, rather sell materials stocks, such as Alcoa (AA),
given that the stronger U.S. dollar means it’s not a great time to own
materials?
Rather than Facebook, Kelleher thinks today’s softness might stem from
another bout of iPhone jitters ? investors worrying about this quarter’s
and next quarter’s unit shipments in advance of the next model.
“I think the selling in Apple is related to a little iPhone exhaustion,”
says Kelleher.
“The follow-on quarter for the iPhone 4S [fiscal Q2 ended in March], wasn’
t as weak as some people expected, and so investors may be thinking this one
[fiscal Q3] is going to be the weak quarter.”
Kelleher notes that with increased awareness of 4G cellular networks, and
with increasing numbers of 4G phones out there, some buyers may wait to see
if and when Apple will offer a 4G phone. By that, he is referring
specifically to 4G based on the “long term evolution,” or LTE, cellular
standard.
The iPhone 4S does not support LTE, but the conventional wisdom at this
point is that the iPhone 5 this fall will be that phone.
Update: In a phone call this afternoon, Colin Gillis of BGC Capital says of
the prospect of some profit-taking to buy Facebook, “It’s not crazy, Apple
is the largest potential source of cash out there for a lot of these firms.
It’s a big old pile of cash.”
As concerns the iPhone, he says “People are concerned about the June
quarter, they’re realizing we’re going to have a sequential slowdown in
iPhone, there are 8.6 million units in the channel, the largest sequential
increase ever, the largest absolute number of phones in the channel” and “
there’s already some iPhone fatigue happening.”
However, it will be “interesting,” adds Gillis, to see what happens with
Apple after Facebook prices.
Apple shares ended the day down $15.96, or 3%, at $530.12.
Correction: a prior version of this post referenced comments by Kelleher
regarding a weaker U.S. dollar, when in fact it should have mentioned the
rising dollar against the Euro. My apology for any confusion caused by the
error. | e******l
发帖数: 805 | 2 原因很简单：苹果CEO带领公司高管都在600多偷偷卖出股票，没人比他们更了解公司的
内幕。你觉得他们会傻到卖掉笃定会涨到一千多的股票。跟着领导走永远不会错。 | w*****g
发帖数: 16352 | 3 no. 米犹阴谋而已.
Nasdaq
their
to
,
【在 w********2 的大作中提到】
: May 17, 2012, 12:12 P.M. ET
: Shares of Apple (AAPL) are weaker than the overall market this morning,
: falling $14.15, or 2.6%, to $531.93 compared to the 1.4% drop in the Nasdaq
: Composite Index.
: One rumor making the rounds this morning is that funds may be trimming their
: position in Apple in order to prepare to re-weight their index
: representation to accomodate Facebook, which will at some point be added to
: indices after it goes public tomorrow morning.
: Some of this thinking may be prompted by negative remarks from hedge funds,
: although the hedge fund view is hardly monolithic.
| w*****g
发帖数: 16352 | 4 米犹今天又出手了. 果果狂升, FB狂跌.
操, 不服不行, 玩的就是你们散户.
Nasdaq
their
to
,
【在 w********2 的大作中提到】
: May 17, 2012, 12:12 P.M. ET
: Shares of Apple (AAPL) are weaker than the overall market this morning,
: falling $14.15, or 2.6%, to $531.93 compared to the 1.4% drop in the Nasdaq
: Composite Index.
: One rumor making the rounds this morning is that funds may be trimming their
: position in Apple in order to prepare to re-weight their index
: representation to accomodate Facebook, which will at some point be added to
: indices after it goes public tomorrow morning.
: Some of this thinking may be prompted by negative remarks from hedge funds,
: although the hedge fund view is hardly monolithic.
|
|
