1 June 1, 2012, 1:40 P.M. ET
Tablets: Microsoft Rising, Morgan Stanley Says; Cannibalization Spreads
The equity research team at Morgan Stanley late yesterday published a long (
37 pages) update to their “Blue Paper” on tablet computers, writing that
2011 sales of the devices turned out being 26% higher than they predicted in
February a year ago, and cannibalization of PCs higher than predicted as
“The market is even bigger and growing faster than we initially forecast,”
writes the team, made up of Katy Huberty, Adam Holt, Joseph Moore Sanjay
Devgan, Ehud Gelblum, Scott Devitt, Jasmine Lu, Grace Chen, Sharon Shih,
Shawn Kim, and Kazuo Yoshikawa.
The two other big conclusions of the report are that Microsoft (MSFT) can “
drive tablet market growth,” and that prices of tablets will make a big
difference in what sells.
2011 tablet computer shipments of 70 million were higher than the firm’s
original 55 million estimate, the team observes.
Most of that outperformance appears to have been Apple’s iPad, which had 62
% of sales last year. That was 9 percentage points higher than what the
original Blue Paper predicted.
The estimate for this year is 133 million units, 57% higher than an original
estimate of 85 million units. For next year, they see 216 million units,
more than double the original 102-million-unit estimate. That figure will be
higher than notebook computer shipments of 215 million, the team projects,
the first time tablets will eclipse a standard computer type.
Microsoft’s prospects have improved substantially, the team writes:
Microsoft has made a lot of progress since our last survey with its Metro
user interface, first introduced in Windows Phone 7 and included in the
upcoming Windows 8 release. Consumers, especially those considering their
first tablet purchase, believe Microsoft Office is a key feature, suggesting
Windows 8 with Office could overtake Android as the second largest platform
in the tablet market.
Moreover, the team sees PC vendors proving an advantage for microsoft, as
Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Lenovo (0992HK) have been shown int
eh firm’s survey to have a better reputation among potential tablet
shoppers than traditional tablet makers such as Samsung Electronics (
005930KS) and HTC (2498TW).
Lenovo looks to be the best set-up among those vendors: “Lenovo has
executed well since launching its products just a year ago, and has a unique
opportunity to capitalize on the Chinese tablet market given its strong
branding, higher market share and initiatives to develop special
applications and localized content.”
Microsoft’s rising star comes as corporations are demonstrating “
surprising” take-up of tablets, Morgan Stanley’s analysts report:
Six percent of employers either purchased or subsidized survey respondents’
tablet for work use and another 10% are allowed to access their corporate
network with a tablet purchased on their own. This is consistent with the
recent uptick in enterprise tablet adoption, as noted in Morgan Stanley’s
April CIO Survey. Sixty-five percent of companies currently purchase tablets
for some employees while nearly 50% allow employee-owned tablets on their
network; both numbers increased steadily over the past three quarters. Tying
the CIO survey data directly back to our consumer tablet survey, the 6% of
respondents that have a company purchased or subsidized tablet (7% in the US
) compares closely to the 9% of employees that CIOs say they purchase
tablets for currently.
At the same time, the spread in corporate networks has led to more
cannibalization of the traditional PC: The team believes that 37% of tablet
shipments last year a result of either delayed or supplanted PC shipments,
which is higher than the 29% they had expected originally. This year, the
percentage may be as high as 41%.
That’s okay for Microsoft: if it gains 22% of tablets next year, it could
offset the cannibalization of PCs and actually produce an extra ten cents a
share in profit.
That fact could prove troubling for Dell, HP, and possibly drive makers
Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC), the team believes.
2亲, FB事件后, 花街米犹还有任何信誉么? 你还当真, SIGH.
就看鲍尔默那操性, 你信WIN平板能崛起么? WP7目前如何?
我最近刚然后把两台PC耍成了LINUX. 手机平板自然是果家的. 然后机顶盒弄了个ATV还
有一个安猪平台的, 虽然我是猪黑. 我和WIN家是越来越无话可说了. 如果我是广大劳
动人民的代表, 也就是先进生产力的代表. 那么将来WIN会如何, 不说你也知道. 人民
对MSFT的感情已经没有了, 这就难办了. 当然我们可以说MSFT有ENTERPRISE底盘, 可
RIM黑梅也有, 现在如何. 得人心者得天下, 可惜ENTERPRISE里什么时候有过感情?
【在 w********2 的大作中提到】
: June 1, 2012, 1:40 P.M. ET
: Tablets: Microsoft Rising, Morgan Stanley Says; Cannibalization Spreads
: The equity research team at Morgan Stanley late yesterday published a long (
: 37 pages) update to their “Blue Paper” on tablet computers, writing that
: 2011 sales of the devices turned out being 26% higher than they predicted in
: February a year ago, and cannibalization of PCs higher than predicted as
: “The market is even bigger and growing faster than we initially forecast,”
: writes the team, made up of Katy Huberty, Adam Holt, Joseph Moore Sanjay
: Devgan, Ehud Gelblum, Scott Devitt, Jasmine Lu, Grace Chen, Sharon Shih,
4周末喝了点酒, 感到意气风发了点, 所以多说了三五斗. HOHO.
【在 g******o 的大作中提到】
【在 w*****g 的大作中提到】
: 周末喝了点酒, 感到意气风发了点, 所以多说了三五斗. HOHO.