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发帖数: 3492 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: wavelets01 (信箱), 信区: Stock
标 题: PCs: Credit Suisse Ups Estimates, Tablets to Take Further Share
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 10 10:44:59 2012, 美东)
Tue, 10 Jul 2012 14:41:47
By Tiernan Ray
The Street has mostly been slashing estimates the last several weeks, as you
've no doubt noticed.
But over the transom this morning comes a hopeful missive, from Credit
Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha, who actually raised his PC unit shipment forecast
for this year, to growth of 3% from a prior 1% projection.
The rub is that some portion of that represents greater tablet computer
shipments as well, which Garcha thinks are on a path to take more and more
share from ordinary PCs.
Fact is, any real health in PCs doesn't really happen till next year, when "
ultrabook" laptops being promoted by Intel (INTC), and Microsoft's (MSFT)
Windows 8 operating system, really kick into gear, Garcha thinks:
Following a restatement of historical data to include white box shipments
and a relatively stronger 1Q12, we raise our 2012 PC unit growth estimate to
+3% y/y or 375mn units. Near term data points have been mixed and we
believe 2Q12 volumes will be -4% q/q. Tailwinds from Windows 8, Ultrabooks,
and an aged installed base will result in accelerated PC unit growth of 8% y
/y in 2013 to 405mn units. Longer term, our cautious view on the PC market
remains unchanged due to the continued growth of competing compute products
such as tablets. Through 2016, we model a unit and revenue CAGR of 4% and 0.
4% respectively.
Garcha raised his total PC shipment forecast for this year to 374.6 million
from 355.7 million, including 155.5 million desktops, up from 149.4 million
previously. For 2013, he now models 404.5 million PCs, up from 364 million
previously, including 167.9 million desktops, up from 158.4 million
previously.
For tablets, Garcha sees the industry moving 110 million units this year, up
from his prior 105.7 million-unit estimate. For 2013, he's modeling 169.7
million, up from 151.8 million.
Garcha sees lower tablet pricing and increased use by corporations aiding
the category to gobble up share of the computing market:
Based on our proprietary price point analysis, tablets will continue to
substantially serve the sub-$500 market. This analysis, coupled with
increasing signs of enterprise adoption, supports our tablet forecast of
365mn units by 2016 or 45% of compute demand. Given the continued potential
for tablets to evolve and cannibalize many CE segments, these estimates
could prove conservative.
Garcha thinks Apple (AAPL) will outmaneuver the competition to rise to
almost 30% of all "compute" market share in coming years, including Macs:
Compute advantage to drive share gains. In a multi-device world, we believe
that Apple is materially advantaged versus peers as its vertically
integrated structure allows it to simultaneously address all three aspects
of the compute market i.e. PCs, tablets and smartphones, effectively driving
a virtuous circle of competitiveness. Moreover, much of the innovation
comes in software, enhanced by a broad range of i-Services which are hard
to replicate. We see Apple s compute share (smartphones, tablets and PCs)
rising from its current level of 17% share to 27% longer term,
He also writes that a $300 iPad "mini," about which many have speculated,
could have 30% gross margin, with $204 in parts cost, could help Apple
extend its tablet lead:
A price around $300 would be attractive to consumers and can gain traction
in the coming back-to-school season. We project that the global shipment of
tablets in the price range of $300 to $499 will reach nearly 240mn units in
2016. Given the advantage of Apple s integrated ecosystem, we expect the
vendor to start penetrating this low and mid-end of the tablet market and
maintain its dominating position in the segment.
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