g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 1 看来奶奶发力了。
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/14698/dan-
In the nine postseasons since 2004 (the “Dwyane Wade era”), the Heat are
13-3 in playoff games reffed by Dan Crawford and 48-40 in all other playoff
games in that span. To control for effects like home/road or playing better/
worse opponents, it may be better to look at the expected win-loss for the
Heat in those games given the pre-game point spread (betting line) for each
game.
Historically, the spread has been shown to be an accurate predictor of what
happens in a game – that is, teams are generally .500 against the spread
over large samples of games. The Heat are 11-4-1 vs the spread in those 16
playoff games reffed by Dan Crawford since 2004, compared to 41-44-3 vs the
spread in the other 88 games.
Adding up their point spread-based win probabilities across all 16 games,
the Heat should have won about nine games on average. Even more, given the
point-spread based probability of winning each game, the chance that Miami
would go 13-3 or better in those 16 games is 1.9%. Statisticians generally
use a cut-off of 5% or lower for statistical significance, so this would be
indicative that this trend goes beyond what would be reasonable by random
chance. |
T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 2 我老一大早就说过了
playoff
better/
each
what
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 看来奶奶发力了。
: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/14698/dan-
: In the nine postseasons since 2004 (the “Dwyane Wade era”), the Heat are
: 13-3 in playoff games reffed by Dan Crawford and 48-40 in all other playoff
: games in that span. To control for effects like home/road or playing better/
: worse opponents, it may be better to look at the expected win-loss for the
: Heat in those games given the pre-game point spread (betting line) for each
: game.
: Historically, the spread has been shown to be an accurate predictor of what
: happens in a game – that is, teams are generally .500 against the spread
|
M****e
发帖数: 1132 | 3 有没有其他裁判的统计数据,来看看是不是selective bias. |
T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 4 今年季后赛裁判数据
http://www.nbastuffer.com/referee_stats
【在 M****e 的大作中提到】
: 有没有其他裁判的统计数据,来看看是不是selective bias.
|
e*****r
发帖数: 3967 | 5 没有出九姨，不能算下决心。
奶奶还是偏心热一点，这个Crawford敢偏客队，这点比九姨强。
playoff
better/
each
what
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 看来奶奶发力了。
: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/14698/dan-
: In the nine postseasons since 2004 (the “Dwyane Wade era”), the Heat are
: 13-3 in playoff games reffed by Dan Crawford and 48-40 in all other playoff
: games in that span. To control for effects like home/road or playing better/
: worse opponents, it may be better to look at the expected win-loss for the
: Heat in those games given the pre-game point spread (betting line) for each
: game.
: Historically, the spread has been shown to be an accurate predictor of what
: happens in a game – that is, teams are generally .500 against the spread
|
N*****m
发帖数: 42603 | 6 9姨留到迈阿密用；蛋偏客队，正好在okc用
奶奶煞费苦心啊
【在 e*****r 的大作中提到】
: 没有出九姨，不能算下决心。
: 奶奶还是偏心热一点，这个Crawford敢偏客队，这点比九姨强。
:
: playoff
: better/
: each
: what
|
p*******n
发帖数: 1182 | 7 不会，前面帮一点，，最后一节让双方拼刺刀。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 看来奶奶发力了。
: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/14698/dan-
: In the nine postseasons since 2004 (the “Dwyane Wade era”), the Heat are
: 13-3 in playoff games reffed by Dan Crawford and 48-40 in all other playoff
: games in that span. To control for effects like home/road or playing better/
: worse opponents, it may be better to look at the expected win-loss for the
: Heat in those games given the pre-game point spread (betting line) for each
: game.
: Historically, the spread has been shown to be an accurate predictor of what
: happens in a game – that is, teams are generally .500 against the spread
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 8 你得到了他。
【在 N*****m 的大作中提到】
: 9姨留到迈阿密用；蛋偏客队，正好在okc用
: 奶奶煞费苦心啊
|
s*****e
发帖数: 1090 | 9 thunder表示没鸭梨。
playoff
better/
each
what
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 看来奶奶发力了。
: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/14698/dan-
: In the nine postseasons since 2004 (the “Dwyane Wade era”), the Heat are
: 13-3 in playoff games reffed by Dan Crawford and 48-40 in all other playoff
: games in that span. To control for effects like home/road or playing better/
: worse opponents, it may be better to look at the expected win-loss for the
: Heat in those games given the pre-game point spread (betting line) for each
: game.
: Historically, the spread has been shown to be an accurate predictor of what
: happens in a game – that is, teams are generally .500 against the spread
|
e*****r
发帖数: 3967 | 10 蛋的问题是下手不够狠，不象九姨频频吹出一波流，全场看他表演。
从热的第一场表现看，恐怕蛋不够扭转乾坤，还需要热自己多努力。
蟹黄还是大皇子啊，其他队到二皇子的地盘，能少偏一点就谢天谢地了。
【在 N*****m 的大作中提到】
: 9姨留到迈阿密用；蛋偏客队，正好在okc用
: 奶奶煞费苦心啊
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 11 客场没有主场哨已经很好了。要有客场哨，需要打不待见的球队
才行。
【在 e*****r 的大作中提到】
: 蛋的问题是下手不够狠，不象九姨频频吹出一波流，全场看他表演。
: 从热的第一场表现看，恐怕蛋不够扭转乾坤，还需要热自己多努力。
: 蟹黄还是大皇子啊，其他队到二皇子的地盘，能少偏一点就谢天谢地了。
|
m***l
发帖数: 1846 | 12 是不是该 all in heat
【在 T*C 的大作中提到】
: 我老一大早就说过了
:
: playoff
: better/
: each
: what
|
a*****n
发帖数: 5158 | 13 一下场91就出场
【在 e*****r 的大作中提到】
: 没有出九姨，不能算下决心。
: 奶奶还是偏心热一点，这个Crawford敢偏客队，这点比九姨强。
:
: playoff
: better/
: each
: what
|
