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发帖数: 1918 | 1 Questions Abound With Lin in the Balance
By HOWARD BECK
Why would Jeremy Lin want to leave New York? How could the Knicks even think
of letting him go? What does Gilbert Arenas have to do with all of this?
What’s a poison pill? Who do I blame for this mess?
All good questions. Rarely in N.B.A. history has a single player’s free
agency inspired so much passion and confusion as Jeremy Lin’s dance with
the Knicks and the Houston Rockets has. As we near the climax — the Knicks
must make a decision Tuesday by 11:59 p.m., Eastern time — we attempt to
sort it all out.
Q.
Linsanity was the most enjoyable period of Knicks basketball in a decade.
Why are the Knicks even considering letting Lin go?
A.
The short answer: money. Lin signed an offer sheet for three years and $25.1
million with the Rockets, which is reasonable on its face. But the third
year contains a balloon payment, or poison pill, of $14.9 million. Because
the Knicks will be over the N.B.A.’s luxury-tax threshold, Lin’s salary
could cost them an additional $35 million or more in penalties paid to the
league. As popular as Lin is, and as great as he was in February, it is
tough to justify a $50 million bill for a single player, especially one who
has started just 25 games.
Q.
How can a single salary create such a large tax hit?
A.
Lin’s salary is not the sole culprit. The Knicks are projected to be over
the tax line in 2014-15 because of the combined salaries of Carmelo Anthony
($24.4 million), Amar’e Stoudemire ($23.4 million) and Tyson Chandler ($14.
6 million). Lin’s salary merely increases the bill. Under the N.B.A.’s new
luxury tax system, the penalties climb for every $5 million increment over
the tax threshold (which is currently $70 million).
Q.
Then how can the Rockets afford Lin’s contract?
A.
Under N.B.A. rules, the Rockets — as the team making the original offer —
would be charged a simple average of the salary, $8.4 million per year, for
salary cap purposes. Also, the Rockets’ payroll is well below the cap at
the moment, and will likely remain below the tax threshold, so they are not
facing any penalties.
Q.
Does this mean Lin wants to leave?
A.
No, Lin has never given any indication that he wants to leave New York. It
is common for restricted free agents to solicit offers from other teams to
drive up their price, even if they prefer to stay. In fact, this was the
only way for Lin to maximize his value. It was a smart business move.
Q.
Why didn’t the Knicks simply outbid the Rockets, or lock up Lin sooner?
A.
They couldn’t. The Knicks were not permitted to give Lin an extension
during the season. They had to wait for him to become a restricted free
agent on July 1. Even then, they were constrained by the N.B.A.’s arcane
cap rules. The most they could offer was $28.75 million over five years, or
— to compare apples to apples — $16.13 million over three years. Only a
rival team with cap room could give Lin the balloon payment. Again, for Lin
to maximize his value, he had to play the market. Also, no contracts could
be signed from July 1 to 10, so the Knicks had to wait while Lin tested the
market.
Q.
So why are the Knicks allowed to pay Lin more now?
A.
Because Lin is a restricted free agent, the Knicks have the right to match
any offer. Under N.B.A. rules, a team has a three-day window to make that
decision once the offer sheet is signed and delivered. That window ends
Tuesday night.
Q.
I heard Knicks officials repeatedly say that they would keep Lin, no matter
the cost. Last week Coach Mike Woodson even said Lin would be the starter,
ahead of Jason Kidd. What happened?
A.
At the time Woodson spoke, Lin had an offer from Houston worth $19.5 million
over three years, including a third-year balloon payment of $9.3 million.
Once it became clear the Knicks intended to match that offer, Houston bumped
the third year to $14.9 million. That extra $5 million would trigger an
extra $16.25 million in tax penalties. “So it adds another $21.25 million
in consequences,” said Tom Penn, a former assistant general manager for the
Portland Trail Blazers, who now works as a cap expert for ESPN. As Penn put
it, the poison pill became “a lot more poisonous” with that change.
Q.
The N.B.A. usually gives teams an advantage to re-sign its own free agents.
So why are the Rockets allowed to offer more than the Knicks?
A.
Cue Gilbert Arenas. In 2002-3, Arenas became a breakout star with the Golden
State Warriors, just before becoming a free agent. As a second-round pick,
he had been given only a two-year contract and therefore did not have full
“Bird” rights, which would have allowed the Warriors to pay him a maximum
salary.
Although Arenas was a restricted free agent, the Warriors could not match a
big offer because they were over the cap. They lost him to the Washington
Wizards, who signed Arenas to a six-year, $60 million deal.
To remedy this, the N.B.A. created the so-called Arenas rule in 2005. Now,
even a team with no cap room can match any offer, using either “early Bird
” rights or the midlevel exception. However, if a rival team has cap room,
it can offer the balloon payment — based on what a player would have made
under a “max” deal — in the third year and beyond. The rule was intended
to prevent a team from losing a breakout prospect, while still giving the
player a chance to make his market rate. Instead, the rule has created the
“poison pill” contract, showing once again that in N.B.A. labor deals, the
best intentions often have unforeseen consequences.
Q.
Is Lin worth the money and the trouble?
A.
We might not know that for many months, or even years. Lin is just 23 years
old and has a very short resume. He hardly played in his first year in the N
.B.A., so he is still a virtual rookie. He was an everyday player for just
26 games last season, but it was a pretty spectacular 26 games. He averaged
18.5 points and 7.6 assists, statistics that would place him among the N.B.A
.’s top point guards if he sustained them for a full season. That “if”
remains the most intriguing, and risky, aspect of this story.
Q.
If Lin is unproven, why are the Rockets so eager to pay him $25.1 million?
A.
The Rockets’ front office, led by General Manager Daryl Morey, has always
been higher on Lin than most teams. Houston had Lin for a week in December
before waiving him in a payroll move. The Rockets needed cap room at the
time to sign Samuel Dalembert, and they already had two starting-caliber
point guards, Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic. They had no need for a third
point guard. But over the last two weeks, the Rockets lost Dragic to Phoenix
and traded Lowry to Toronto (to acquire a first-round pick that can be used
in a Dwight Howard trade). Now, Houston is in dire need of a point guard,
and the Rockets view Lin as a solid starter. Also, because they can average
his salary for cap purposes, the contract is not as daunting. The Rockets
also have established business ties to China, stemming from Yao Ming’s
tenure in Houston, so Lin might have added value on the marketing side.
Q.
Is there any way for the Knicks to keep Lin and minimize their risks?
A.
There are several ways to justify the deal, and even some ways to decrease
the financial hit. The Knicks could keep Lin for two years — at $5 million
and $5.4 million — and attempt to trade him by the third year, when his $14
.9 million expiring contract could become a commodity. They could try to
shave the payroll in other ways, although it would be tough because they
presumably want to keep Anthony and Chandler, and because Stoudemire is
virtually untradeable.
The Knicks cannot use the “amnesty” provision to remove a salary because
they used it on Chauncey Billups last year. But the Knicks could waive Lin
under the league’s new “stretch” provision, which allows a team to cut a
player and extend his payments (and cap hit) over multiple years. In Lin’s
case, the Knicks could stretch the $14.9 million payment over three years,
at $4.98 million per year. According to a rival executive, that would cut
the Knicks’ tax liability by more than $30 million in 2014-15. However, Lin
would remain on the books for two more years, which could crimp the Knicks
’ free-agent signings.
Or the Knicks could simply look at this another way: Accept Lin’s contract
as a one-time hit, whatever the cost, then reassess. There is no commitment
beyond 2014-15, so the contract will never be the albatross that, say, Eddy
Curry’s was. In fact, all of the Knicks’ priciest players — Anthony,
Stoudemire, Chandler and Lin — have deals that expire in 2015. If Lin
stumbles, if the lineup crashes and burns, the Knicks can simply hit the
reset button. |
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