Originally Posted by wendzall
So due to an abundance of free time I decided to try my hand at some number
crunching in order to see if we can make an informed decision about whether
Jeremy Lin should play the final 5 minutes of close games.
Here are some quick points in summary:
1) In games with a final score difference of 7 points or less the Rockets
have a record of 8 wins and 12 losses.
2) Of the 8 wins Lin played in the final 5 minutes of 6 of those games.
3) Of the 12 losses Lin played in the final 5 minutes of 8 of those games.
4) So the idea that Lin should be in close games has some merit as he has
been involved in 75% of the wins and 66% of the losses.
5) What are also considerable are the +/-, Assists, and Points in the final
5 minutes of games.
a) In the wins Lin averaged: +3.5 +/-, 0.5 Assists, 4.2 Points
-----------other PGs averaged: +2.7 +/-, 0 Assists, 4.7 Points
b) In the losses Lin averaged: 0 +/-, 0.2 Assists, 2.3 Points
-----------other PGs averaged: -3.7 +/-, 0.3 Assists, 0.7 Points
So what can we conclude about the data presented?
1) Well... the Rockets don't win close games very well as we've all noticed
and which is worrying if we are to believe these folks... http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9023997
2) The Rockets use Lin about 70% of the time in the final 5 minutes of close
games. So 3 out of 10 close games we've seen Lin on the bench. Not sure
what this means as it depends on your estimation of Lin's importance.
3) But notably the +/- shows a clear distinction in the contribution of Lin
in the final 5 minutes when compared to Douglas or Beverly.
----In close games won, Lin provided a +3.5 compared to +2.7 of the other
point guards, which translates to being better at keeping the lead or coming
back from behind.
----In close games lost by the Rockets Lin provided a 0 +/-, while the other
guards gave up a dissatisfying -3.7. I don't think I need to interpret this
stat. It's clear that in the close losses the other points guards have been
4) It is considered common knowledge that Douglas and Beverly are better
spot up shooters and thus more complementary to Harden but what is also
clear from the data of these close games is that Lin has for the most part
contributed more in both the wins and losses during the final 5 minutes. He
might not be hitting as many three pointers, but Lin is getting more assists
, higher +/- differentials, and as much if not more points compared to the
other point guards.
5) The interpretation of plus/minus like any stats has it's weaknesses and
complications. The data shown aren't definitive proof for anything but it
does make it compelling to give Lin more opportunities to close out the last
So what do you think?
****Please share your comments about the data analysis as I suspect my
interpretation will have flaws. Also please add your own interpretation of
2So in summary, out of those 20 close games, Lin played the final 5 mins in
14 of them.
1 Regardless win or loss, Lin outperformed other rocket pgs by a large
2 In those 14 games, rockets won 6 and lost 8.
3 Lin's performance in wins is better than in losses by a large margin.
So for a coach, either find a way to get Lin to play well more consistently
in the final mins, or bench him all together.
3A good point from clutchfan is that even Lin and Harden don't coexist well,
both being on court forces the opponent to be prepared for different
offensive schemes. This might result in some losses for now but definitely
have long term benefits.
【在 t******o 的大作中提到】
: A good point from clutchfan is that even Lin and Harden don't coexist well,
: both being on court forces the opponent to be prepared for different
: offensive schemes. This might result in some losses for now but definitely
: have long term benefits.
【在 r***k 的大作中提到】
: 如果long term计划包括哈登和林两个人，那么你的说法有道理。但问题是火箭的long
【在 t******o 的大作中提到】
【在 t******o 的大作中提到】