b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 1 IMP双有，你做庄4S，两手牌如下：
K985
K6
AKT3
J63
A7432
AQ5
J98
K4
叫牌过程（对方保持静默）：1S-2NT-4S
2NT=Jacoby raise，表示至少四张以上高花支持，一般较均型，逼局
西家首攻SQ，东家跟出S6。你再拔一轮将牌，东家垫了张梅花。你如何继续？ | i****e
发帖数: 642 | 2 The trick seems to prevent RHO from gaining lead by possible D Qxxx or Qx.
Cash 3 hearts, discarding a C. DAK, and throw in LHO by trump.
If RHO can get in with D Qxx, we still have C guess. I will play RHO for CQ,
but I think I won't need that guess.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: IMP双有，你做庄4S，两手牌如下：
: K985
: K6
: AKT3
: J63
: A7432
: AQ5
: J98
: K4
: 叫牌过程（对方保持静默）：1S-2NT-4S
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 3 看到这种结构，第一想法就是对着JXX出小草花，蓝队的幻觉
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: IMP双有，你做庄4S，两手牌如下：
: K985
: K6
: AKT3
: J63
: A7432
: AQ5
: J98
: K4
: 叫牌过程（对方保持静默）：1S-2NT-4S
| j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 4 haha, E DQxx, W has CAQ, u got top
【在 v**********e 的大作中提到】
: 看到这种结构，第一想法就是对着JXX出小草花，蓝队的幻觉
| i****e
发帖数: 642 | 5 That is a likely layout, although it may not be necessary to play C to J
first.
How about this line? First try C to K. If it loses to A, next try C to J. If
it also loses, go back to D finesse. This line works if RHO has CA, or LHO
has CQ, or LHO has DQ. The chance to fail is about 1/8 = 12.5%.
My previous line to end-play LHO fails if RHO has
exactly D Qxx, and
mis-guess C or there is no guess (LHO CAQ).
The chance to fail is about 0.36 / 2 * (0.5*misGuess + 0.25) = 4.5 to 13.5%
where 0.5 is the prob with CAQ split, misGuess is the chance of mis-guess CA
and CQ, and 0.25 is prob with CAQ in LHO. So you decide which line to take
based on your ability to guess CA and CQ :)
【在 j*******e 的大作中提到】
: haha, E DQxx, W has CAQ, u got top
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 6 So in order for this line to be inferior, you have to have a mis-guess rate
close to 90%. I am not sure about bridge, but if that's the case then you
should definitely not play poker or any game in casino. :-)
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: That is a likely layout, although it may not be necessary to play C to J
: first.
: How about this line? First try C to K. If it loses to A, next try C to J. If
: it also loses, go back to D finesse. This line works if RHO has CA, or LHO
: has CQ, or LHO has DQ. The chance to fail is about 1/8 = 12.5%.
: My previous line to end-play LHO fails if RHO has
: exactly D Qxx, and
: mis-guess C or there is no guess (LHO CAQ).
: The chance to fail is about 0.36 / 2 * (0.5*misGuess + 0.25) = 4.5 to 13.5%
: where 0.5 is the prob with CAQ split, misGuess is the chance of mis-guess CA
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