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发帖数: 6973 | 1 (1) Tom Orlik, No Appreciation for the Rising Yuan; Heard on the Street.
Wall Street Journal. June 21, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052
702304070104576397513517003444.html
("It's been a year since the yuan's peg to the dollar ended. * * * The yuan
has reached 6.4696 to the dollar, up 5.5%. * * * Data collected by the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics show the price of U.S. imports from China in May
up just 2.8% year on year. * * * China's trade surplus with the U.S. is
larger in the first four months of 2011 than it was in the same period of
2010. * * * The outlook for appreciation is little better. * * * A shrinking
trade surplus [in China] is partly an illusion, based on higher prices for
the commodities that make up the bulk of China's imports. But it also
strengthens Beijing's case that the trade account is coming into balance
without the need for significant further appreciation. A year on from the
end of the yuan's dollar peg, most of the world is worse off against the
Chinese currency, from a competitive standpoint, than they were before. * *
* That will only shift the debate to China's other trade partners demanding
more.")
Note: The graphic shows that since the beginning of 2010, Singapore and
Taiwan currencies have risen about 10% (compared with renminbi's 5.5%)--all
against dollar, which has declined in the same period against other major
currencies.
(2) Jon Hilsenrath, Laurie Burkitt and Elizabeth Holmes, Change in China
Hits US Purse.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424
052702303499204576387774214424658.html
Quote:
"These changes [rising US import prices] are particularly apparent in
apparel and footwear. * * * The key factor is that cotton prices have surged.
"[Rebecca] Shi Yuhan, a 29-year-old telecommunications manager in
International Business Machines Corp.'s Beijing office [ ] makes more than $
4,600 a month.
Peter McGrath "sits on the board of directors of Xiniya Fashions, a Chinese
retailer with 1,400 shops. He says Chinese consumers pay up to $25 for polo
shirts at Xiniya (pronounced Zenya), well above the $15 the same shirts sell
for in the U.S. Even with rebates that Chinese manufacturers get for
exporting, that $25 domestic price makes them less willing to accept the
price cuts [in exporting the same to US] that used to be a standard part of
their business, Mr. McGrath says: 'They can make more money by selling it to
the Chinese market.'
"Chinese demand is, of course, also pushing up prices of commodities. China
consumed 40% of the world's cotton last year, up from 25% a decade earlier,
helping cotton prices to more than double since August.
" Average earnings for China's city dwellers rose to about $5,500 last year,
up 13% from 2009 and 77% from five years earlier, according to China's
National Bureau of Statistics.
"China's labor market may tighten further in the years ahead because of
demographics. Chinese under age 14 made up 23% of the population a decade
ago but now are just 16.6%, which means the portion of the population
heading into the work force is shrinking.
"Luxury leather-goods maker Coach Inc. is in the first year of a four-year
effort to diversify away from China. 'The inflationary pressures are real,"
Chief Financial Officer Michael Devine said at a recent conference, adding
that the ones Coach is most concerned with are "Chinese wages, because they'
re not going away, and they're only going in one direction.'
Note:
(a) Xiniya 希尼亚
http://www.xiniya.com/home.asp
(b) Jiangxi Creator Knitwear Garments Co. 江西克莱特实业有限公司 ("是江西外
贸拥有自营进出口经营权的服装出口重点生产企业")
(c) Steve Madden Ltd
http://www.stevemadden.com/
Steve Madden (born in 1959 at Queens, New York City) i a designer and
founded the company in 1990, which is based at Queens.
(3) Chuin-Wei Yap. China Floods Claim Victims, Crops: Human toll rises to at
least 175 dead, 1.6 million displaced; damage to some farm areas called
worst in decades.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142
4052702303936704576396853768579970.html
(Drought "continues to affect almost five million hectares of farmland
nationwide—including in different areas of some of the same provinces now
afflicted by floods")
Note: Two cities in photo captions:
(a) Lanxi (浙江省金华市) 兰溪市
(b) Dexing City (江西省上饶市) 德兴市
(4) Carl E Walter and Fraser JT Howie, Beijing's Financial Day of Reckoning
Is Near; A large part of China's economic miracle was built on dodgy loans,
the bill for which is now coming due.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052
702304070104576397590197265296.html
("If the reports citing anonymous officials are true, Beijing is considering
assuming responsibility for some two trillion to three trillion yuan ($300
billion - $450 billion) of loans that were made to local government
borrowing vehicles. The scale of such a rescue is staggering—at about 7% of
gross domestic product it is bigger than the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief
Program.")
Note:
(a) dodgy (adj): "chiefly British QUESTIONABLE, SUSPICIOUS"
www.m-w.com
(b) Troubled Asset Relief Program
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program
(signed into law by U.S. President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008; to
address the subprime mortgage crisis)
Quote: "Originally expected to cost the U.S. taxpayers as much as $300
billion, by December 16, 2010, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
estimated the total cost would be $25 billion, although Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner argued that the final cost would be still lower. This is
significantly less than the taxpayers' cost of the savings and loan crisis
of the late 1980s. The cost of that crisis amounted to 3.2 percent of GDP
during the Reagan/Bush era, while the GDP percentage of the current crisis'
cost is estimated at less than 1 percent. |
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