c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 1 My comment:
(a) Taiwan's machine tool production and, in particular, export, has made
great strides, parlaying nations's strong suit in electronics. Indeed,
Taiwan banks on the industry as the next "pillar" of economic growth, after
semiconductors, LCD display and photonics (LED and photovoltaics)--various
specialities of electronics.
(b) For years, I know world export ranking as well as production and export
values of Taiwan, based on news reports from Taiwan. Chinese are hungry for
data, too. There are occasionally conflicting assertions (without datat to
back them up) about quality and production/export of China's machine tools
industry. News reports in US have documented Germany's booming export of
machine tool to China, without financial details. However, I have failed to
find statistics for other nations, including China's--until today.
(c) Lin Hui-chun and Frances Huang, Taiwan 6th-Largest Machine Tool Maker.
Central News Agency, July 9, 2011
http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_
Detail.aspx?Type=aALL&ID=201107090022
("output of Taiwan-made machine tools totaled US$3.8 billion (NT$109 billion
) in 2010, up 67.8 percent from a year earlier. * * * Taiwan was the fourth-
largest machine tool exporter, shipping US$3 billion-worth of products
abroad, up 72.1 percent year-on-year.")
It has been the case for the past several years that Taiwan is the fourth
place in export. What is encouraging is bound an d leap in production and
export value, a trend that meshes with forecasts.
(d) One need not read the above news report, but proceed to read the primary
material, on which the report is based. See next.
(e) 2011 World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey. Gardner
Publications, Inc
http://www.gardnerweb.com/consump/survey.html
("Chinese dominance continues. China for years has been the largest consumer
of machine tools, and in 2009 it became number-one producer, as well. For
2010 that leadership continues as the country makes substantial gains in
shipments and increases its share to 30% of total world production. With a
huge internal appetite, however, China keeps much of its output at home, and
its machines are seen little in Western markets")
(i) Producer
.................................2010 Revenue (estimated) .............
Change from 2009
1 China ...................19,980.0m .......................................
...31%
2 Japan ..................11,841.7m ........................................
..69%
3 Germany .............9,749.9m ............................................
-10%
4 Italy ......................5,166.4m .....................................
.......-1%
5 S Korea ...............4,498.0m ..........................................
.,63%
6 Taiwan ................3,803.3m ..........................................
..68%
7 Switzerland .........2,185.4m ............................................
1%
8 US ........................2,026.2m ......................................
......-9%
(ii) Exporters:
.................................$ 2010 (est) .......Change $ (y/y) .....
Export (including re-export)/Production
1 Japan ..................7,832.7m............86% ........................66
%
2 Germany .............6,623.6m ...........-9% .........................68%
3 Italy ......................3,298.5m............-1% ......................
...64%
4 Taiwan ................2,995.1m ...........72% ........................79%
5 Switzerland .........1,821.1m ...........-1% .........................83%
6 China ...................1,800.0m ...........28% ........................9
%
7 S Korea ...............1,678.0m ............38% .......................37%
8 US ........................1,380.4. ..............12% ....................
...68%
(iii) Consumers
.................................2010 Revenue (estimated) .............
Change from 2009
1 China ...................27,280.0m .......................................
...38%
2 Germany .............5,033.9m ............................................
.-13%
3 Japan ...................4,445.3m ........................................
....37%
4 S Korea ...............4,264.0m ..........................................
...59%
5 Italy .......................2,768.7m ....................................
........-1%
6 United States .......2,752.3m ...........................................-
15%
7 India ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,740.0m .....................................
......44%
8 Taiwan ..................1,505.5m ........................................
...74%
(iv) Importers
.................................$ 2010 (est) .......Change $ (y/y).....
Import (including that for re-export)/Consumption
1 China ...................9,100.0m..............54% .....................33
%
2 US.........................2,106.5m .............-7% .....................
.77%
3 Germany ..............1,907.6m .............-15% ....................38%
4 S Korea ................1,444.0m................27% ..................34%
5 India ......................1,250.0m ..............33% ...................
72%
6 Russia ..................1,069.1m ...............5% .....................
86%
7 Mexico ..................916.4m ..................0% .....................
90%
8 Italy .......................900.8m....................1% ................
.....33%
9 Brazil .....................897.2m ...................0% .................
....60%
10 Taiwan ...............697.3m....................105% .................46%
(v) Copuntry Report
* China: "Chinese consumption, as a percentage of total estimated world
production of $71-billion, amounts to 23%. So, again, more than one out of
every five machines produced in the world ends up in China. In terms of
domestic production, China, which reports its production for this survey in
U.S. dollars rather than yuan, increased 43%, solidifying its spot as third
place in the world, ahead of the Italy and behind only Japan and Germany."
Note: The second sentence suggests that foreign production of machine tool
INSIDE China catapults China into the leading producer.
* Taiwan: "The country continues to have a very high per-capita rate of
consumption, and last year ranked second behind only Switzerland in that
measure, with more than $165 worth of new machine tools installed for each
person. | c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 2 James Simms, Japan's Capital Dilemma. Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2011 (
title in print)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230354460457643190
("one message from Japanese core machinery order data for May[;] A subset of
the overall data, foreign machinery orders, is actually heading south, with
month-on-month declines in the past three months. That dropped 6.6% in May
alone. And year-on-year increases have been slowing for the past four months
too. This indicates a slowdown in overseas growth, namely in the U.S. and
China, the last thing Japan needs at a time when it could do with all
economic engines firing for a recovery.")
My comment: I am not concerned about Japan. US Department o Labor yesterday
released employment data for June, so the writer knew when writing this
report that US economic recovery was stalled. His divination about China,
gleaned from this "subset" of data is intriguing. I will wait to see if this
interpretation is correct. |
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