d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 既然老印可以跨过２００６年，我们最差应该是一样的排期。From IV TeddyKoochu,
估计原贴是IV 最长的贴子，快到３００页。为了方便大家，现在TeddyKoochu重开一贴
，并给出了最新预测。仅供大家参考，喜欢悲观就悲观，喜欢乐观就乐观点。
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033
Summary
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007
EB3 I- APR 15 2002
Please continue the "EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)" in this new
thread.
The old thread link is below:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...tions-281.html
Folowing is my current draft still work in progress will be editing it soon
Month-Year India China PWMB CP Total
Monthly Cumlative
Sum
Offset 8500 1000 0 0 9500 9500
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 10848
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 13285
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 15610
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 18180
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 20898
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 23577
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 26181
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 29132
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 31626
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 33985
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 36371
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 38700
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 40889
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 43819
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 49380
- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly
figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory.
- I have assumed a starting offset of 2000 as there were cases which did not
see approval last year even though they were current. I have assumed PD
porting to be 6000 (Double of what was calculated last year for India). PD
porting has now been added to the offset point itself as we will see
movement only in the last quarter and I believe that the date won’t cross
May 2006 before the last quarter in the absence of any kind of spillover (
SOFAD). The offset also includes ~ 750 approvals each for India and China.
- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor
approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are
by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially
from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500
lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the
inventory is the baseline.
- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative
sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out
that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of
SOFAD and see the resting point.
- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS
Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K
Now lets analyze on That Website to see the trend for October to December
Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB2 ROW – 211 EB2 NIW – 34 Total - 245
EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 196
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB2 ROW – 153 EB2 NIW – 16 Total - 169
EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 53
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being
adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last
year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K
SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be
29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-26925 ~
11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be
19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~
20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (169/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 20K ~ 14K.
EB5 SOFAD will be ~ 8K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 18 + 5 = 34K.
With ~ 24 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible
scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this
will put us at 01-JAN02007.
Best case scenario is EB1 gives us an extra 10K and the PWMB demand will be
felt only when the dates cross May 2007 so kind of add 13K on top of the 34K
this can actually help to throw us over the fence finally to 01-AUG-2007,
this again is extremely optimistic but not impossible. We just have to
continue monitoring for more time. | s******0
发帖数: 1340 | 2 老印总是太乐观.06年底应该差不多,但07年春很难. | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 3 我知道老印比较乐观，可是TeddyKoochu的分析还是有理 有具，大家看看里面有什么漏
洞，我是看不出来。请高人分析分析。 | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 4 其其引用的数据有什么问题？导致乐观大结果，大家要拿出客观数据，不要老是说老印
太乐观了。 | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 5 Originally Posted by belmontboy
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN
2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?
Thanks for pointing out still in WIP I will correct the table as well. 26.5
K takes us to 01 Jan 2007 while ~ 34K takes us over March to 01-APR-2007. I
will be making corresctions to the first post based on the latest data . | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 6 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
Venni .. EB2IC dates will move together when SOFAD kicks in. To move dates
to Aug 2007 SOFAD needs to be 30-35K right? Do you think SOFAD will be that
high?
Originally Posted by veni001
Welcome!
That's not correct, EB3C got only 4,150 pending with PD before Aug 2007
compared to almost 11,000 EB2C for the same period. Unless there are more
PWMB and/or CP cases EB3C should clear until Aug 2007 by Sept 20112.
Originally Posted by leo07
veni001,
immitrickz was talking abut EB2C. EB2C need to worry a little, but only b/n
JUL-SEP season, because that's when the sharing occurs. Since their EB2
backlog is less, their exposure to risk(EB3-EB2 porting) is obviously
limited.
Best!
Leo just to clarify your point : there are two kinds of risks to EB2C.
1) Less SOFAD due to overall conversions. This risk stays same for EB2C as
EB2I as both share the SOFAD.
2) Less date movement because of EB3C->EB2C conversions. This risk is quite
less given not many EB3C exist (much less compared to India).
Now #1 really overshadows any risk in #2. So even if 2 were high ... it only
delays EB2C approvals within a year.
Bottomline EB2C is unaffected (or at most affected teh same as EB2I).
Q, I agree there is more than 1 risk. I did not split the risk on country
basis for simplicity.Because if there were EB3C porting, that will affect
EB2I just as much as EB3I porting affects EB2C.( ah..did I get all my 2's,3'
s, I's and C's correct ))
oh, I think veni001 was talking about EB3C? "EB3C should clear until Aug
2007 by Sept 20112." | s******0
发帖数: 1340 | 7 去年老印算了很多,当时觉得都挺有道理的,最后没一个有谱的.
我想关键是谁也不能把各种因素都考虑进去.而且USCIS怎么出牌谁也不知道.
我只是感觉今年剩余名额不会比去年多.(去年17K,今年很难比去年还多大几千甚至1万) | Q*K
发帖数: 3464 | 8 Garbage in, Garbage out.
别分析了，没有solid的数据基础，估计出来的都是扯淡。 | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 9 Today, 05:13 PM
gcwait2007
Given below is the present position:
Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:
Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki
Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025
The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that
demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas.
The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:
Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006
Source: Past Visa Bulletin Data - Immigration Wiki
I-485 Inventory data is given below:
Month India China Cumulative Total
May-06 1110 0 1110
Jun-06 1696 0 2806
Jul-06 1505 620 4931
Aug-06 1677 693 7301
Sep-06 1745 773 9819
Oct-06 1747 732 12298
Nov-06 1737 667 14702
Dec-06 1881 770 17353
Jan-07 1540 654 19547
Feb-07 1444 615 21606
16082 5524
Without spillover visas, the current visa allocation per month for EB2 India
and EB2 China are as follows:
Annual Quota for EB2 India: 2987
Divided by 12, we get monthly quota: 2987/ 12 = 249 visas.
The porting from EB3I to EB2I is in the range of 270 to 275 visas each month
, in the last few months.
EB2 India will get 1000 visas in next 4 months (from March 2011 to June 2011
), however my assumption is that these 1000 visas will go for EB3India to
EB2India porting. The cut-off date for EB2 India as of June 2011 will be 8-
May-2006.
EB2 China will clear 1000 visas in next 4 months (from March 2011 to June
2011) and they will reach cut- off date of 15-Aug-2006 in June 2011.
The spillover season starts in July 2011.
Calculation of availability of spillover visas:
EB4 Religious workers will consume all the allocated visas.
EB5 have been providing about 8K to 9K visas as spillover year after year.
EB4 and 5 spillovers will go to EB1.
EB1 India, China and Philippines consume more than their allocated quota
year after year. Last year there was some marginal spillover, otherwise
there were no spillovers from EB1 to EB2 in the previous years.
From the other websites, there are indications that EB1 is somewhat
moderately down. It may be possible that the filers may not use the websites
to keep track of the data. EB1 spillover to EB2 will be about 4K.
Porting from EB3 ROW to EB2ROW is also happening. EB2 ROW to EB2 India and
China spillover is expected to be 10K to 12K.
The availability spillover visas: 8K+4K+10K = 22K
USCIS will try to split the spillover over 3 months, each month allocating
8K visas.
For July 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Sep-2006 (about
8K visas)
For August 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Dec-2006 (
about 8K visas).
For Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be either end of Feb
2007 (about 4.5K visas) or end of March 2007 (about 6.5K visas). | S*L
发帖数: 1746 | 10 有FY2010那么多能到2006年底俺就很高兴了。
【在 Q*K 的大作中提到】
: Garbage in, Garbage out.
: 别分析了，没有solid的数据基础，估计出来的都是扯淡。
| m*****t
发帖数: 3477 | 11 哪有那末多剩余名额。也就12K不错了。今夏EB2C应该是NOV06。
【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: Today, 05:13 PM
: gcwait2007
: Given below is the present position:
: Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:
: Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki
: Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
: CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175
: CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975
: CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025
: The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that
| a******s
发帖数: 598 | 12 那些整天利好，整天乐观，意淫的傻B们，制造幻觉，利好个球！
new
【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: 既然老印可以跨过２００６年，我们最差应该是一样的排期。From IV TeddyKoochu,
: 估计原贴是IV 最长的贴子，快到３００页。为了方便大家，现在TeddyKoochu重开一贴
: ，并给出了最新预测。仅供大家参考，喜欢悲观就悲观，喜欢乐观就乐观点。
: http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033
: Summary
: EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007
: EB3 I- APR 15 2002
: Please continue the "EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)" in this new
: thread.
: The old thread link is below:
|
|
