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EB23版 - Sep 2011 排期 和 对NIU的建议
相关主题
这次EB2排期都在预料之中,关键是SO分法这样值吗
2011年EB2C排期会在2007年3月至5月之间早知道伤心总是难免的
排期分析:用实际的数据说话.谁能给算算到2011年9月排期会到哪里?
USCIS data个人以为,9月排期不容太乐观
3012造成EB3中印捆绑,骆印太有才了。反向3012可行吗
07/7真有那么多人吗?6,7,8,9月份的中印EB2排期预测
看来大潮后的EB2要等将近6年了17日新鲜出炉的数据
为老印的提议抬轿子的, 可以清醒一会了EB2C重新开闸时间的简单计算
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb2i话题: eb2c话题: eb2话题: so话题: niu
进入EB23版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
G******e
发帖数: 44
1
People might be overly optimistic after all these great news.
(1) Thank cnus for the call to Mr.O. However, cnus's statement is too strong
interpreted as "AT LEAST 22000" even if O was trying to be conservative.
(2) The 12,000 appears to the PREDICTED unused EB1 for the WHOLE fiscal year
. It's very likely there are other unused numbers from EB5 (as Rainer and
some Indian dudes estimated)and EB2 ROW. However, it is possible to see a
surge in approval from ROW in the coming months. Also, the EB3I to EB2I
conversion is a big unknown. So a more realistic scenario is Sep. 2011 EB2C
cut-off date is somewhere between Oct. 2006 to Dec 2006.
Suggestions to NIU: great effort but the communication needs to be improved.
(1) Make each inquiry concise and precise. Don't be overly "polite".
(2) List all the questions with bullets so O won't miss any. It's also
cleaner and easier to refer to certain question in the follow-up emails.
(3) Proofread the email before sending it out. Other than the syntax errors,
the writing style is kind of naive (sorry to say that).
S******y
发帖数: 1330
2
Oct. 2006 to Dec 2006?
d****b
发帖数: 388
3
这个分析倒也合理,很有可能就是这个结果. 版上这两天太HIGH了...
R****r
发帖数: 623
4
EB2ROW每年申请和批准的数字是个这些年来一直非常稳定。在没有异常情况发生时,去
假设surge不合理。17000 SO for eb1+eb2row其实是比较reasonable的estimate. 按照
这个估计和现在的inventory数字,
1) 如果 no eb3->eb2 issues
cutoff date满打满算应该订到2/1/2007. 但考验到在case approval过程中的种种情形
,为了不浪费名额,cis一般会多给出一个buffer. 所以订到3/1/2007是比较realistic
的possibility.
2) 考虑 eb3->eb2
正如你所提,eb3->eb2 cases是不定因素,所以把cutoff date订到1/1/2007,这实际
反映的是将近3000多eb2->eb3 conversions, and happens between Jan 5, 2011-Sept
, 2011. 根据trackitt和其他几个A3常出没的论坛上的讨论,其实几乎是不可能的。
cutoff date 可以确定:
1/1/2007 100%
2/1/2007 75%
3/1/2007 or after 50%

strong
year
EB2C
improved.

【在 G******e 的大作中提到】
: People might be overly optimistic after all these great news.
: (1) Thank cnus for the call to Mr.O. However, cnus's statement is too strong
: interpreted as "AT LEAST 22000" even if O was trying to be conservative.
: (2) The 12,000 appears to the PREDICTED unused EB1 for the WHOLE fiscal year
: . It's very likely there are other unused numbers from EB5 (as Rainer and
: some Indian dudes estimated)and EB2 ROW. However, it is possible to see a
: surge in approval from ROW in the coming months. Also, the EB3I to EB2I
: conversion is a big unknown. So a more realistic scenario is Sep. 2011 EB2C
: cut-off date is somewhere between Oct. 2006 to Dec 2006.
: Suggestions to NIU: great effort but the communication needs to be improved.

B********n
发帖数: 384
5
分析的不错,给5月VB挖个坑。
Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off
dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2011 are as follows:
Employment Second:
China: Aug through Sep 2006
India: May 2006
If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2006

strong
year
EB2C
improved.

【在 G******e 的大作中提到】
: People might be overly optimistic after all these great news.
: (1) Thank cnus for the call to Mr.O. However, cnus's statement is too strong
: interpreted as "AT LEAST 22000" even if O was trying to be conservative.
: (2) The 12,000 appears to the PREDICTED unused EB1 for the WHOLE fiscal year
: . It's very likely there are other unused numbers from EB5 (as Rainer and
: some Indian dudes estimated)and EB2 ROW. However, it is possible to see a
: surge in approval from ROW in the coming months. Also, the EB3I to EB2I
: conversion is a big unknown. So a more realistic scenario is Sep. 2011 EB2C
: cut-off date is somewhere between Oct. 2006 to Dec 2006.
: Suggestions to NIU: great effort but the communication needs to be improved.

s******0
发帖数: 1340
6
你这个忒悲观了,就算一个SO都没有,EB2C也能到06年9月底.

off

【在 B********n 的大作中提到】
: 分析的不错,给5月VB挖个坑。
: Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off
: dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2011 are as follows:
: Employment Second:
: China: Aug through Sep 2006
: India: May 2006
: If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
: China and India: October through December 2006
:
: strong

B********n
发帖数: 384
7
奥傻一贯的风格,到时看看吧。

【在 s******0 的大作中提到】
: 你这个忒悲观了,就算一个SO都没有,EB2C也能到06年9月底.
:
: off

G******e
发帖数: 44
8
Thanks, Ranier. I have a few more comments.
Last year, many people had expected more EB2 ROW spillover number than what
EB2I&C actually got. This is because of the increased number (surge) of EB2
ROW approval toward the end of 2010 fiscal year.
EB3IC to EB2IC conversion is unknown. O has not retrogressed EB2I cut-off
date. This seems to indicate the EB3I upgrade mostly got offset by their own
quota and the number is not as bad as we have thought previously.
I agree with what you mentioned in another post that EB5 is a steady source
for spillover.
Overall 17,000-20,000 is a reasonable estimate. My post is just to point out
other possibilities, and remind people not to get excited too early.
p.s.: Other than the entertainment value, p838 does have some good points in
the past and now. For example, I personally don't see too much benefit of
pushing O to use up EB2C quota in May - unless he set EB2I cut-off date same
or later than EB2C's.

realistic
Sept

【在 R****r 的大作中提到】
: EB2ROW每年申请和批准的数字是个这些年来一直非常稳定。在没有异常情况发生时,去
: 假设surge不合理。17000 SO for eb1+eb2row其实是比较reasonable的estimate. 按照
: 这个估计和现在的inventory数字,
: 1) 如果 no eb3->eb2 issues
: cutoff date满打满算应该订到2/1/2007. 但考验到在case approval过程中的种种情形
: ,为了不浪费名额,cis一般会多给出一个buffer. 所以订到3/1/2007是比较realistic
: 的possibility.
: 2) 考虑 eb3->eb2
: 正如你所提,eb3->eb2 cases是不定因素,所以把cutoff date订到1/1/2007,这实际
: 反映的是将近3000多eb2->eb3 conversions, and happens between Jan 5, 2011-Sept

R****r
发帖数: 623
9
尽快用完quota很重要。至少争取不晚于A3用完他们自己的名额。
要不然就有是一笔糊涂账,在和A3抢SO时,老中自己名额都没用完,A3用了本属于老中
的名额谁也不知道。

what
EB2
own
source
out

【在 G******e 的大作中提到】
: Thanks, Ranier. I have a few more comments.
: Last year, many people had expected more EB2 ROW spillover number than what
: EB2I&C actually got. This is because of the increased number (surge) of EB2
: ROW approval toward the end of 2010 fiscal year.
: EB3IC to EB2IC conversion is unknown. O has not retrogressed EB2I cut-off
: date. This seems to indicate the EB3I upgrade mostly got offset by their own
: quota and the number is not as bad as we have thought previously.
: I agree with what you mentioned in another post that EB5 is a steady source
: for spillover.
: Overall 17,000-20,000 is a reasonable estimate. My post is just to point out

G******e
发帖数: 44
10
Ranier, I agree it's good to 尽快用完quota. The main benefit is for Aug/early Sep PDs to get approval sooner. However, from O's email to NIU,
sounds like O will let China use up the 2,800 quote before EB2I catches up
EB2C. We should monitor this closely but I don't want to see NIU go to the
other extreme to irritate O.
G******e
发帖数: 44
11
I hate to say this, and I know people will not like this, but, if there are
significant EB3I with early PD porting to EB2, what O will be doing as
quoted in some emails, i.e., let EB2I start using spillover before EB2C, is
legit. He already reiterates multiple times that the visa usage is strictly
based on PD.
From our perspective, we have to accept it unless we can change the way the
spillover is being allocated. In fact, this may not be a bad thing. At least
, there won't be any visa number wasted due to a high volume cases piled up
in summer (if early EB2I PDs do not get approved earlier).
Just some thoughts...
G******e
发帖数: 44
12
Hope people can calm down, and think over the situation.
It is good to ask O to use up China EB2 annual quota as EB2I does, but it's
not critical given EB2I cut-off date is still behind.
7% limit is not worth of discussion or actually should not even be discussed
with O. We cannot just compare EB2C to EB2I, and ask for equal SO #.Both
countries have far more immigrants than most ROW.If someone has an earlier
PD, regardless he is EB2I or EB2C, he deserves to be approved sooner.
Again, unless we can change the SP allocation rule, or stop EB3 to EB2
porting, we should focus on something that's more realistic to achieve, such
as to request a more transparent info sharing so we maximize SO usage for
EB2C.
R****r
发帖数: 623
13
Gatorade,
I agree with you on 7% thing.
Making stats more transparent should be a mid/long term goal, because this
has been discussed for years, and it was not unitl last year the first
inventory report was published.
To fully utilize our quota is easier to monitor and more urgent for the time
being. It's true that EB2I is still behind us, and it's very possible that
the new May EB2I date would be still left behind. However, if the EB2I date
is set to 6/1/2006 or after, and our date is set for 10/1/2006 or earlier,
EB2Is actually start using SO, while we are still eating our own.
This won't make too much difference for the people of 2006PD, but could have
impact on the people with 2007PD and after...
I don't think many 2006PD people really care about getting approval 1 month
earlier or 2, but it's an issue of fairness.
G******e
发帖数: 44
14
Ranier, I think we are basically on the same page. On the topic of pushing O
to use up China's 2800 quota, I want to say a little more. If EB2I cut-off
date is 6/1/2006 or later, as long as it is before the current EB2C cut-off
(or 7/22/2011), this should not affect us. There are virtually NO EB2C PDs
before this date. Even if we were given the opportunity to use up our own
quota, at this point, we would have to wait until EB2I catches up. You can
argue about the fairness of this practice, but it's not a critical issue.
Personally I'm against to escalating this to the level of discrimination.
As much as I "hate" it, I think PD based SO number allocation is fair.
Everyone is in the line, and there have to be an order. Diversity is not
just in high tech, and it should not be just between I & C, if we want to
talk about it. Fundamentally I really don't see O did anything wrong.
Under the current situation, it may be beneficial to let EB2I start using SO first. If we simply "drag" them down to delay this process, there will be more EB3I with earlier PD porting to EB2 and fill the queue, which means the # of SO for EB2C will be reduced.
Just my another 2cents...
1 (共1页)
进入EB23版参与讨论
相关主题
EB2C重新开闸时间的简单计算3012造成EB3中印捆绑,骆印太有才了。
New inventory data is posted07/7真有那么多人吗?
LIAr:问一问你的说客,当年我在推动VB前进的时候,他在干什么?他的主张是什么?看来大潮后的EB2要等将近6年了
奥本估计2012年的spill over和去年差不多为老印的提议抬轿子的, 可以清醒一会了
这次EB2排期都在预料之中,关键是SO分法这样值吗
2011年EB2C排期会在2007年3月至5月之间早知道伤心总是难免的
排期分析:用实际的数据说话.谁能给算算到2011年9月排期会到哪里?
USCIS data个人以为,9月排期不容太乐观
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb2i话题: eb2c话题: eb2话题: so话题: niu