d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 By TeddyKoochu
EB2 India Predictions for Q4 2011 and 2012
Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current.
For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K
visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K
consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which
includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to
lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is
required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having
the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming
really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB'
s for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so
the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of
approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard
was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a
similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean
that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in
regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2
ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from
May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible
and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we
will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere
between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress
we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show
sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much
SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the
next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider
the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases +
pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is
left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily
satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2
2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012
to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh
intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as
all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a
contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is
completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to
everyone waiting. |
s****t
发帖数: 427 | |
H**E
发帖数: 620 | 3 多谢转贴。
虽然他的预测偏乐观但还是可信度比较高的。 对今年的预测和P8388（很久之前）的预
测是很接近的。大致就是今年底接近07/7， 明年底接近08/1. 当然既然是预测就有很
多不确定因素没法考虑，但大致是我看到的最靠谱的预测了。
希望明年SO至少能与今年持平。
希望P8388能出来点评一下。 |
w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 4
Why? Tell us your analysis and reasoning. Otherwise, don't criticize
other's by a single word "nonsense". That doesn't show you are any better.
【在 s****t 的大作中提到】
: nonsense
|
i******r
发帖数: 373 | 5 agree with u.
【在 w***7 的大作中提到】
:
: Why? Tell us your analysis and reasoning. Otherwise, don't criticize
: other's by a single word "nonsense". That doesn't show you are any better.
|
s****t
发帖数: 427 | 6 there are several obvious holes in his analysis. Can't you see them?
You can believe him I don't care
【在 w***7 的大作中提到】
:
: Why? Tell us your analysis and reasoning. Otherwise, don't criticize
: other's by a single word "nonsense". That doesn't show you are any better.
|
w**t
发帖数: 893 | 7 No one is saying their analysis is perfect.
People are telling you that it is better to have no analysis published, as
you did.
When you comment others, please provide your own analysis, instead of just
one word.
We need to keep this board helpful.
【在 s****t 的大作中提到】
: there are several obvious holes in his analysis. Can't you see them?
: You can believe him I don't care
|
