p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 1 Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure
data, and PD based on Calender Year.
EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K
EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K
Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this
total) |
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 2 since EBI will use all the SO in the future, let us just focus on our own 3K
quota per year
EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
let us suggest that 80% are EB2,and there are some NIW
EB2- China
PD2007 - 2.5k+0 (most NIW will apply before 2007)
PD2008 - 3.2k+ 1k
PD2009 - 1.7k+1k
EB2-CHINA with family *1.5
PD2007 - 3.75k+0 (most NIW will apply before 2007)
PD2008 - 6.3k
PD2009 - 4.5k
PD 2007 can share some SO with india next year, should be all clear before
2012 summer
PD in 2008: can submit 485 next year, and got green between 2012 and 2013.
PD IN 2009: can submit 485 in early 2013-2014 and start to get approved in
2014 |
a***x
发帖数: 26368 | 3 好呀
3K
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: since EBI will use all the SO in the future, let us just focus on our own 3K
: quota per year
: EB- China
: PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
: PD2008 - 4.1k
: PD2009 - 2.2k
: let us suggest that 80% are EB2,and there are some NIW
: EB2- China
: PD2007 - 2.5k+0 (most NIW will apply before 2007)
: PD2008 - 3.2k+ 1k
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | |
a***e
发帖数: 161 | 5 这个PREM数据是不是也包括换工作和EB3升级后重办PREM的.尤其是EB3I每年升级的也不
是小数目呢,如果减去这个比例大概有多少呢? |
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 6 some may switch to EB1
some may get green card by marriage
some couples both applied for PERM
some may go back china
so it maybe in better situation
Can we ask MR O to SO the EB5C and EB1C directly to EB2C?
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 基本就是这个情况了
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 7 SO分配难道不是先垂直再水平吗？
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: some may switch to EB1
: some may get green card by marriage
: some couples both applied for PERM
: some may go back china
: so it maybe in better situation
: Can we ask MR O to SO the EB5C and EB1C directly to EB2C?
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 8 we don't care India, their amount is too huge to let EB-C to use the SO
after 2007 le
【在 a***e 的大作中提到】
: 这个PREM数据是不是也包括换工作和EB3升级后重办PREM的.尤其是EB3I每年升级的也不
: 是小数目呢,如果减去这个比例大概有多少呢?
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 9 I don't think so
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: SO分配难道不是先垂直再水平吗？
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 10 哪位来证实一下？
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: I don't think so
|
|
|
a***e
发帖数: 161 | 11 但是没什么道理突然之间印中的比例这么悬殊了,何况是在就业市场这么不好的情况下.
所以想问问是不是他们的PREM中有很大EB3和重办PREM升级的可能.如果EB2的比例还是
保持在大致中印1:3,我们还是能分到不少SO的.是不是呢? |
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 12 I asked this question a few months ago, they replied that his rule has
been changed
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 哪位来证实一下？
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 13 EB2-ROW先给EB2C/I用？
EB1C的剩余怎么处理？
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: I asked this question a few months ago, they replied that his rule has
: been changed
|
w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 14 早都不是什么先垂直后水平了，O某利用大潮把中印等同起来，所有SO等同起来按PD分
，当中印比例悬
殊的时候SO对老中就是聊胜于无。要是先垂直后水平老中连三年都不需要等，应该是C。
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: EB2-ROW先给EB2C/I用？
: EB1C的剩余怎么处理？
|
i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 15 昨天算过了，Aug 06 到 Jul 07 中印一共是27.75k 485库存，很显然，07年总PERM至
少有6.4k
(3.2k*2) compare to 08年4.1k，06年PERM数据是多少？我想不会比08年少，也就是说
，06中
到07中PERM一定比07中到08中的PERM多，但实际demand只有27.75k，那个火箭扇说07中
到08中有
35k demand，基本就是瞎掰
own 3K
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: since EBI will use all the SO in the future, let us just focus on our own 3K
: quota per year
: EB- China
: PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
: PD2008 - 4.1k
: PD2009 - 2.2k
: let us suggest that 80% are EB2,and there are some NIW
: EB2- China
: PD2007 - 2.5k+0 (most NIW will apply before 2007)
: PD2008 - 3.2k+ 1k
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 16 if we have EB1C and EB5C SO, we all C this year le hehe
C。
【在 w***7 的大作中提到】
: 早都不是什么先垂直后水平了，O某利用大潮把中印等同起来，所有SO等同起来按PD分
: ，当中印比例悬
: 殊的时候SO对老中就是聊胜于无。要是先垂直后水平老中连三年都不需要等，应该是C。
|
w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 17 That's why we need to join NIU and fight for the hell of it.
Current rule is THE worst to EB2C.
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: if we have EB1C and EB5C SO, we all C this year le hehe
:
: C。
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 18 yeah, I would always like to join NIU hehe
【在 w***7 的大作中提到】
: That's why we need to join NIU and fight for the hell of it.
: Current rule is THE worst to EB2C.
|
L***a
发帖数: 3674 | 19 小P今天好勤快啊
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure
: data, and PD based on Calender Year.
: EB- INDIA
: PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
: PD2008 - 23.3k
: PD2009 - 16.0k
: PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
: Total - 74.5K
: EB- China
: PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 20 Indian has 23k PERM in 2008
China has 4k PERM in 2008
Indian has 14k PERM approved after July 2007, but have PD of 2007
China has 3K PERM approved after July 2007, but have PD of 2007
I am not 瞎掰
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: 昨天算过了，Aug 06 到 Jul 07 中印一共是27.75k 485库存，很显然，07年总PERM至
: 少有6.4k
: (3.2k*2) compare to 08年4.1k，06年PERM数据是多少？我想不会比08年少，也就是说
: ，06中
: 到07中PERM一定比07中到08中的PERM多，但实际demand只有27.75k，那个火箭扇说07中
: 到08中有
: 35k demand，基本就是瞎掰
:
: own 3K
|
|
|
P********r
发帖数: 1304 | 21 中国的每年才几千？比我想象中的少太多了吧。2010才2千多？》 |
N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 22 就算08，09 的印中比例超大， 可SO 老中应该还是有的分啊？哪怕10：1的话，如果有
20K SO， 我们也可以有2K，这对 本来就不多的老中Demands也是很好啊。
对不对？ |
N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 23 就算08，09 的印中比例超大， 可SO 老中应该还是有的分啊？哪怕10：1的话，如果有
20K SO， 我们也可以有2K，这对 本来就不多的老中Demands也是很好啊。
对不对？ |
w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 24 没说不分呀，但是现在的分法最糟糕，乱分都比这个强。
别忘了，按现在的分法，只要老中每年过2800，等待时间就会和老印一样。
【在 N*******r 的大作中提到】
: 就算08，09 的印中比例超大， 可SO 老中应该还是有的分啊？哪怕10：1的话，如果有
: 20K SO， 我们也可以有2K，这对 本来就不多的老中Demands也是很好啊。
: 对不对？
|
i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 25 Indian has 22k PERM in 2006, 24k PERM in 2007，23k in 2008
China has 7k in 2006, 7k in 2007, 4k in 2008
所以，PERM demand about the same from 2006-2008, 从06年8月到07年7月，总EB2
demand是27.75k，这里面还包括了1k+ 7月透支的NIW
那么从07年8月到08年7月，怎么可能有35k demand？25k make sense
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Indian has 23k PERM in 2008
: China has 4k PERM in 2008
: Indian has 14k PERM approved after July 2007, but have PD of 2007
: China has 3K PERM approved after July 2007, but have PD of 2007
: I am not 瞎掰
|
h**********8
发帖数: 267 | 26 在这个数据里，
我嚼着三哥里面很大一部分的都是eb3，
而中国绝大部分是eb2 |
z******y
发帖数: 192 | 27 ya, when people tries to analyze the PERM data, we should keep this in mind:
PERM = EB2 + EB3, I dont' know if there is any way to tell the proportion
in this total number, but this proportion will be an important factor if you
want to use the data to predict the VB movement.
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: Indian has 22k PERM in 2006, 24k PERM in 2007，23k in 2008
: China has 7k in 2006, 7k in 2007, 4k in 2008
: 所以，PERM demand about the same from 2006-2008, 从06年8月到07年7月，总EB2
: demand是27.75k，这里面还包括了1k+ 7月透支的NIW
: 那么从07年8月到08年7月，怎么可能有35k demand？25k make sense
|
J********t
发帖数: 240 | 28 同意楼上的，老印perm中EB3的比例比老中大很多，乘以那么大的一个基数，在很大程
度上影响了VB前进的速度。 |
h**********8
发帖数: 267 | 29 个人认为，07/07后，中印eb2大致仍然维持1:3的比例 |
i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 30 仔细看看2006 - early 2007 老印的485库存，就知道EB2I/EB3I的比例了，我印象中
EB2I超过
50%
mind:
proportion
you
【在 z******y 的大作中提到】
: ya, when people tries to analyze the PERM data, we should keep this in mind:
: PERM = EB2 + EB3, I dont' know if there is any way to tell the proportion
: in this total number, but this proportion will be an important factor if you
: want to use the data to predict the VB movement.
|
|
|
l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 31 老印EB2:EB3基本是2:3.老中是10:1左右。
根據過去的demand |
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 32 1. 2006 PD was current for several times in the past several years including
2007,2008,2009,2010. They have approved some cases of PD 2006 in the summer
of 2009. Therefore, the current 2006 demand is only partial of original
demand.
2. current 2007 demand does not include the people who missed the boat and
it only includes the demand from Jan 2007 to July 2007. The people whose
PERM was approved after July 2007 never got a chance to submit 485.
India has 24k PERM in 2007, this includes PERM from January to December.
People with PD earlier than 2007.07 submitted their 485 and they became the
known demand, but the people after July never got a chance to submit 485.
Currently India 2007 documented demand is only half of the real 2007 demand.
24K PERM in 2007
23K PERM in 2008
this does not mean the 2008 demand equals the current documented 2007 demand because the documented 2007 demand is only from 2007.01-07.
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: Indian has 22k PERM in 2006, 24k PERM in 2007，23k in 2008
: China has 7k in 2006, 7k in 2007, 4k in 2008
: 所以，PERM demand about the same from 2006-2008, 从06年8月到07年7月，总EB2
: demand是27.75k，这里面还包括了1k+ 7月透支的NIW
: 那么从07年8月到08年7月，怎么可能有35k demand？25k make sense
|
i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 33 1. China and India EB2 never passed Aug.1, 2006 until 2 months ago.
Please check data first. Aug 2006 - July 2007 is an entire year's
demand, not just some proportion.
2. I think you are arguing the "missed boat" people twice. Let's think
in this way, for China, PERM with PD 2007 approved is 6846 while
approved PERM after July is 3200. So, I assumed demand for 2007 is about
half for Jan-July (7 months) and half for Aug-Dec (5 months). 2008 is
about the same as 2006.
So, total demand should be similar, 25k. This is assuming stable EB2/EB3
ratio for these several years.
including
summer
original
and
whose
December.
became the
485.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 1. 2006 PD was current for several times in the past several years including
: 2007,2008,2009,2010. They have approved some cases of PD 2006 in the summer
: of 2009. Therefore, the current 2006 demand is only partial of original
: demand.
: 2. current 2007 demand does not include the people who missed the boat and
: it only includes the demand from Jan 2007 to July 2007. The people whose
: PERM was approved after July 2007 never got a chance to submit 485.
: India has 24k PERM in 2007, this includes PERM from January to December.
: People with PD earlier than 2007.07 submitted their 485 and they became the
: known demand, but the people after July never got a chance to submit 485.
|
b********7
发帖数: 12906 | 34 so what's your conclusion based on this analysis?
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: 1. China and India EB2 never passed Aug.1, 2006 until 2 months ago.
: Please check data first. Aug 2006 - July 2007 is an entire year's
: demand, not just some proportion.
: 2. I think you are arguing the "missed boat" people twice. Let's think
: in this way, for China, PERM with PD 2007 approved is 6846 while
: approved PERM after July is 3200. So, I assumed demand for 2007 is about
: half for Jan-July (7 months) and half for Aug-Dec (5 months). 2008 is
: about the same as 2006.
: So, total demand should be similar, 25k. This is assuming stable EB2/EB3
: ratio for these several years.
|
i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 35 Aug 1, 2007 to July 31, 2008, total EB2CI demand is around 25k, rocketsfan
projected 35k.
【在 b********7 的大作中提到】
: so what's your conclusion based on this analysis?
|
b********7
发帖数: 12906 | 36 that means it's more likely to proceed to Q3 2008 in Sept VB?
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: Aug 1, 2007 to July 31, 2008, total EB2CI demand is around 25k, rocketsfan
: projected 35k.
|
i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 37 It really depends on the projections of SO, which nobody knows.
My point is, we have to let enough people in to prevent loss of SO in the
next year. This year's SO is already lost, so we should learn the lesson.
【在 b********7 的大作中提到】
: that means it's more likely to proceed to Q3 2008 in Sept VB?
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 38 If you compare 08/2006-07/2007 to 08/2007-07/2008, I would say the amount
will be close, but your number of the demand (08/2006-07/2007) is not
accurate enough.
I checked the USCIS inventory, there are around 29k pending C&I cases from
08/2006-07/2007. Plus the PWMB number 6k, it will be 35k, similar to my
estimation. I don't know where you got the demand of 25k, but it is lower
than the reality.
Please do calculation using the January inventory:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-48
China: 10k from 08/2006-07/2007
India: 19k from 08/2006-07/2007
PWMB: 6k.
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: 1. China and India EB2 never passed Aug.1, 2006 until 2 months ago.
: Please check data first. Aug 2006 - July 2007 is an entire year's
: demand, not just some proportion.
: 2. I think you are arguing the "missed boat" people twice. Let's think
: in this way, for China, PERM with PD 2007 approved is 6846 while
: approved PERM after July is 3200. So, I assumed demand for 2007 is about
: half for Jan-July (7 months) and half for Aug-Dec (5 months). 2008 is
: about the same as 2006.
: So, total demand should be similar, 25k. This is assuming stable EB2/EB3
: ratio for these several years.
|
z******y
发帖数: 192 | 39 rocketsfan's projected number is EB number
yours is EB2 number
both looked about right to me, but again, nobody can predict when and how
they "open the gate", only time can tell.
【在 i**y 的大作中提到】
: Aug 1, 2007 to July 31, 2008, total EB2CI demand is around 25k, rocketsfan
: projected 35k.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 40 my projection is EB2 number.
check the uscis inventory, 10k china eb2 from 08/2006-07/2007 and 19k india
eb2.
totally 29k
plus 6k people who missed the boat
total demand between 07/2007-06/2008 will be close to 35k, not 25k.
【在 z******y 的大作中提到】
: rocketsfan's projected number is EB number
: yours is EB2 number
: both looked about right to me, but again, nobody can predict when and how
: they "open the gate", only time can tell.
|
|
|
z******y
发帖数: 192 | 41 I see, your point is
08/2006-07/2007 data is comparable to 07/2007-06/2008
not sure if it works like this way though
india
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: my projection is EB2 number.
: check the uscis inventory, 10k china eb2 from 08/2006-07/2007 and 19k india
: eb2.
: totally 29k
: plus 6k people who missed the boat
: total demand between 07/2007-06/2008 will be close to 35k, not 25k.
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 42 I didn't say that.
the previous guy made this assumption and I agree it will be close.
I just did the calculation based on his logic.
【在 z******y 的大作中提到】
: I see, your point is
: 08/2006-07/2007 data is comparable to 07/2007-06/2008
: not sure if it works like this way though
:
: india
|
