r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 1 未来两个月VB走势和数据的分析
1.)17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 got approved after July 2007. If we assume
half of these 17k are EB2, adding the family factor multiplying 2, we will
get 17k demand from PERM EB2. If we assume we have 3k EB2 NIW demand, we
will get 20k demand from the PD of 2007.
The first half of 2008 will generate at least 13-15k demand. Total demand
from 2007 and Q1/Q2 of 2008 will be close to 33-35k demand.
2.)The Q's Indian website did very good analysis of the data. Totally we
have 500 PERM have PD earlier than April/2007, but got approved after July. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
3.)Most of the PWMB demand will come up after the VB moves over May 2007.
More than 1000 PERM with PD of June 2007 are waiting to file 485. In the August VB, Mr.O may move PD to July 2007, at that time a large number of PWMB demand will show up, around 4000 new demand will go into their system.
4.)The PWMB demand analysis based on timeline (PERM only):
Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2
Before 04/2007: 500
Before 07/2007: 4000
Before 12/2007: 17000
This is the demand from PERM, NIW is not considered.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-
PWMB EB(2&3)(I&C) PERM Labor approvals after July 2007
Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.
- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C | s*******e
发帖数: 629 | 2 Great job!
.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 未来两个月VB走势和数据的分析
: 1.)17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 got approved after July 2007. If we assume
: half of these 17k are EB2, adding the family factor multiplying 2, we will
: get 17k demand from PERM EB2. If we assume we have 3k EB2 NIW demand, we
: will get 20k demand from the PD of 2007.
: The first half of 2008 will generate at least 13-15k demand. Total demand
: from 2007 and Q1/Q2 of 2008 will be close to 33-35k demand.
: 2.)The Q's Indian website did very good analysis of the data. Totally we
: have 500 PERM have PD earlier than April/2007, but got approved after July. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
: 3.)Most of the PWMB demand will come up after the VB moves over May 2007.
| r****e
发帖数: 3109 | 3 how come so many PD 2007 PERMS are approved in 2011? this doesn't make any
sense.
. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people
will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB
demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB
because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 未来两个月VB走势和数据的分析
: 1.)17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 got approved after July 2007. If we assume
: half of these 17k are EB2, adding the family factor multiplying 2, we will
: get 17k demand from PERM EB2. If we assume we have 3k EB2 NIW demand, we
: will get 20k demand from the PD of 2007.
: The first half of 2008 will generate at least 13-15k demand. Total demand
: from 2007 and Q1/Q2 of 2008 will be close to 33-35k demand.
: 2.)The Q's Indian website did very good analysis of the data. Totally we
: have 500 PERM have PD earlier than April/2007, but got approved after July. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
: 3.)Most of the PWMB demand will come up after the VB moves over May 2007.
| r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 4 got audited I guess
people
【在 r****e 的大作中提到】
: how come so many PD 2007 PERMS are approved in 2011? this doesn't make any
: sense.
:
: . Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people
: will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB
: demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB
: because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
| r****e
发帖数: 3109 | 5 okay, i see most of them were indeed approved in 2007-2008.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: got audited I guess
:
: people
| r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 6 yes, the majority got approved in 2007 and 2008.
no matter when they got approved, they still have PD of 2007.
We should expect 20k demand from PD 2007.
Indians are too many. Not a racial attack, but the demand from India is
going to keep very high in the coming years.
Unfortuately, our annual EB2 demand is only a little bit higher than our
annual quota, otherwise, we wouldn't have got stuck with Indians.
【在 r****e 的大作中提到】
: okay, i see most of them were indeed approved in 2007-2008.
| r****e
发帖数: 3109 | 7 it's amazing they have such detailed data. can only count on huge SOs.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, the majority got approved in 2007 and 2008.
: no matter when they got approved, they still have PD of 2007.
: We should expect 20k demand from PD 2007.
: Indians are too many. Not a racial attack, but the demand from India is
: going to keep very high in the coming years.
: Unfortuately, our annual EB2 demand is only a little bit higher than our
: annual quota, otherwise, we wouldn't have got stuck with Indians.
:
| j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 8 跟我用485 inventory算出来的结果大致相当，我算出来的错过07大潮的（PWMB）大约
5k，see
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/EB23/31319555.html。
他们算出来4k，但是不含NIW，我的5k是含NIW的。
. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people
will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB
demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB
because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 未来两个月VB走势和数据的分析
: 1.)17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 got approved after July 2007. If we assume
: half of these 17k are EB2, adding the family factor multiplying 2, we will
: get 17k demand from PERM EB2. If we assume we have 3k EB2 NIW demand, we
: will get 20k demand from the PD of 2007.
: The first half of 2008 will generate at least 13-15k demand. Total demand
: from 2007 and Q1/Q2 of 2008 will be close to 33-35k demand.
: 2.)The Q's Indian website did very good analysis of the data. Totally we
: have 500 PERM have PD earlier than April/2007, but got approved after July. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
: 3.)Most of the PWMB demand will come up after the VB moves over May 2007.
| c***3
发帖数: 527 | | r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 10 Another version, but it's close.
- PD -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 --- Total ---- %
Jan-07 ---- 58 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 ----- 108 --- 0.62%
Feb-07 --- 125 ------ 42 ------ 22 ------- 5 ------- 1 ----- 195 --- 1.12%
Mar-07 --- 259 ------ 55 ------ 18 ------- 4 ------- 1 ----- 337 --- 1.93%
Apr-07 --- 702 ------ 71 ------ 24 ------- 3 ------- 0 ----- 800 --- 4.58%
May-07 --- 804 ----- 141 ------ 49 ------ 11 ------- 2 --- 1,007 --- 5.76%
Jun-07 --- 838 ----- 303 ------ 68 ------ 13 ------- 2 --- 1,224 --- 7.00%
Jul-07 - 1,206 ----- 523 ----- 176 ------ 26 ------- 3 --- 1,934 -- 11.06%
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ----- 251 ------ 85 ------- 7 --- 2,282 -- 13.05%
Sep-07 --- 100 --- 1,781 ----- 297 ----- 109 ------- 6 --- 2,293 -- 13.11%
Oct-07 ----- 0 --- 2,187 ----- 148 ----- 286 ------- 5 --- 2,626 -- 15.02%
Nov-07 ----- 0 --- 2,016 ------ 35 ----- 376 ------- 6 --- 2,433 -- 13.91%
Dec-07 ----- 0 --- 1,914 ------ 36 ----- 284 ------ 12 --- 2,246 -- 12.85%
Total -- 4,842 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------ 48 -- 17,485 - 100.00%
. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people
will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB
demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB
because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 未来两个月VB走势和数据的分析
: 1.)17495 C&I PERM with PD 2007 got approved after July 2007. If we assume
: half of these 17k are EB2, adding the family factor multiplying 2, we will
: get 17k demand from PERM EB2. If we assume we have 3k EB2 NIW demand, we
: will get 20k demand from the PD of 2007.
: The first half of 2008 will generate at least 13-15k demand. Total demand
: from 2007 and Q1/Q2 of 2008 will be close to 33-35k demand.
: 2.)The Q's Indian website did very good analysis of the data. Totally we
: have 500 PERM have PD earlier than April/2007, but got approved after July. Assume half PERM are EB2 and family factor is 2.I guess around 500 people will file 485 in this July 1st. It's not a big number. I think the PWMB demand should not change Mr.O's mind to move PD forward in the next VB because the PWMB demand is not significant yet.
: 3.)Most of the PWMB demand will come up after the VB moves over May 2007.
| r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 11 4842 people with PD 2007 were approved in FY 2007.
In FY 2008,2009,2010,2011, many more PERM got approved (mainly due to audit)
, although they were submitted in 2007.
You need to add all those numbers. | s****t
发帖数: 427 | |
|
