EB23版 - CIS has all approved EB2, EB3 case number |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 1 why it is still difficult to predict the 485 demand?
Just look at the number then you get the demand. any difficulty? | S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 2 You mean USCIS has all the approved I-140 numbers? One approved I-140 can
produce multiple I-485s thanks to the derivative applicants.
Also, the applicant might have left the sponsoring company for whatever
reason before his/her PD becomes current--our Indian friends called it "DD"
-- Demand Destruction.
He or she might have moved to another category without backlog during the
wait: get married to a US citizen, upgraded to EB1 or EB5, became 带路党 in
Iraq or Afghanistan...just to name a few.
Helsinki has been told by USCIS that they don't use approved I-140s to count
demands. | V5
发帖数: 170 | 3
yes!, but from history, you can tell the factor , say, 1.2 - 5.2
with 99% confidence!
"
in
count
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: You mean USCIS has all the approved I-140 numbers? One approved I-140 can
: produce multiple I-485s thanks to the derivative applicants.
: Also, the applicant might have left the sponsoring company for whatever
: reason before his/her PD becomes current--our Indian friends called it "DD"
: -- Demand Destruction.
: He or she might have moved to another category without backlog during the
: wait: get married to a US citizen, upgraded to EB1 or EB5, became 带路党 in
: Iraq or Afghanistan...just to name a few.
: Helsinki has been told by USCIS that they don't use approved I-140s to count
: demands.
| p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 4 One approved I-140 can : produce multiple I-485s
There should be a constant ratio, say 1: 1.5 for C, 1: 3 for I
________________________________________
the applicant might have left the sponsoring company for whatever
reason before his/her PD becomes current
The percentage of this situation would not be very high.
_____________________________________________________________
He or she might have moved to another category
USCIS should also have data for this movement.
__________________________________________________________
get married to a US citizen, upgraded to EB1 or EB5, became 带路党 in
USCIS should have data for this ,say, if he/she apply for family based or
eB1, EB5, he/she will deleted from the eb2 demand.
___________________________________________________________
"
in
count | V5
发帖数: 170 | 5 a simple linear regression suffices
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: One approved I-140 can : produce multiple I-485s
: There should be a constant ratio, say 1: 1.5 for C, 1: 3 for I
: ________________________________________
: the applicant might have left the sponsoring company for whatever
: reason before his/her PD becomes current
: The percentage of this situation would not be very high.
: _____________________________________________________________
: He or she might have moved to another category
: USCIS should also have data for this movement.
: __________________________________________________________
| S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 6 Just because historically EB2C has a 1-1.5 ratio doesn't necessarily mean it
will be the case for the future. No one can guarantee that. Even if you can
name a 99% confidence interval, I seriously doubt USCIS would adopt it.
I agree with you that technically USCIS should have almost all the
information needed to accurately count the demand. However, whether or not
they are capable to interpolate the demand from all this information is the
real issue. Once again I do not think they can achieve it with the current
resources.
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: One approved I-140 can : produce multiple I-485s
: There should be a constant ratio, say 1: 1.5 for C, 1: 3 for I
: ________________________________________
: the applicant might have left the sponsoring company for whatever
: reason before his/her PD becomes current
: The percentage of this situation would not be very high.
: _____________________________________________________________
: He or she might have moved to another category
: USCIS should also have data for this movement.
: __________________________________________________________
| n***s
发帖数: 10056 | 7 You should work for USCIS and develop a program.
【在 V5 的大作中提到】
: a simple linear regression suffices
| a****9
发帖数: 1983 | | p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | |
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