l*******o
发帖数: 2795 | 1 转来的。正确与否，我也不知道。概不负责啊。
Demand data numbers are low because demand data numbers only include
adjudicated cases. USCIS goes through pre-adjudication, review and finally
adjudicate the cases. The demand data will only show the applicants which
are already adjudicated (sent all their documents to USCIS, FP done,
Medicals done, have undergone security clearance, background checks have
been completed, RFEs have been responded to etc. etc.). Basically, those
applicants are the one who are just ready to be assigned a visa number and
given green card.
Typically, it takes on average 4-6 months for USCIS to adjudicate the cases.
If for some reason, the applicant gets an RFE or there is some problem with
security clearance, than expect it to be even longer than that. For an
example, a person who has sent the application to USCIS in June 2011 will be
expected to get adjudicated in December 2011 if everything goes smooth. If
that person is adjudicated than he will show up in the demand data.
Now, we know that there will be many people (probably in thousands) who
filed their applications in October, November and December 2011 and sent it
to USCIS. These people will not show up in the demand data because they are
not adjudicated yet and it simply means that even though they may have sent
all their documents, USCIS is still working on their applications.
In February, when March VB will come out, it will be about 5 months for
people who filed in October and the demand data released for March VB should
show us a higher demand provided the demand destruction is not huge. Demand
Data released in March for April VB should show us even higher demand again
provided the demand destruction is not huge.
Now, the demand destruction can be due to multiple things. People changing
jobs and filing the PERM again (not porting but starting the entire process
again), people getting laid off and going back home, people abandoning their
GC process because of frustration, people going back home due to better
opportunities, multiple PERMs like husband and wife both have PERMs filed,
people updating to EB1, people getting married to EB2ROW candidates, GC
holders, US citizens etc. No body knows what is the demand destruction right
now.
Demand is low in the demand data as expected. I think demand data for next
month and the month after will give us a clear picture. Also I-485 inventory
once released will make it even clearer. In my opinion, this month's VB
movement will be at Mr. CO's discretion and if the demand destruction is not
huge than retrogression is imminent from next VB. If the demand destruction
is moderate than the dates may stall for the rest of the FY2012 starting
from next few months. Only if the demand destruction is of mammoth size,
than the dates will continue to move forward. I hope the third scenario is
true. | H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 2 This is the best explanation ever. | m****p
发帖数: 865 | 3 解释的对，澳奔最近应该是根据交485的数量来决定排期的，这个数字是多少咱不清楚
，反正比澳奔想的要少。 | l*******o
发帖数: 2795 | | v**m
发帖数: 706 | | i****d
发帖数: 724 | 6 很好的解释
cases.
【在 l*******o 的大作中提到】
: 转来的。正确与否，我也不知道。概不负责啊。
: Demand data numbers are low because demand data numbers only include
: adjudicated cases. USCIS goes through pre-adjudication, review and finally
: adjudicate the cases. The demand data will only show the applicants which
: are already adjudicated (sent all their documents to USCIS, FP done,
: Medicals done, have undergone security clearance, background checks have
: been completed, RFEs have been responded to etc. etc.). Basically, those
: applicants are the one who are just ready to be assigned a visa number and
: given green card.
: Typically, it takes on average 4-6 months for USCIS to adjudicate the cases.
| l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 7 其实现在的dd没有任何意义，所以和vb没有任何联系
全看O的预期
所以这次的VB什么都可能发生
cases.
【在 l*******o 的大作中提到】
: 转来的。正确与否，我也不知道。概不负责啊。
: Demand data numbers are low because demand data numbers only include
: adjudicated cases. USCIS goes through pre-adjudication, review and finally
: adjudicate the cases. The demand data will only show the applicants which
: are already adjudicated (sent all their documents to USCIS, FP done,
: Medicals done, have undergone security clearance, background checks have
: been completed, RFEs have been responded to etc. etc.). Basically, those
: applicants are the one who are just ready to be assigned a visa number and
: given green card.
: Typically, it takes on average 4-6 months for USCIS to adjudicate the cases.
| j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 8 这个就是NIU去年11月问来的解释。
发信人: jwe (Mike), 信区: EB23
标 题: Re: Demand data out!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 6 12:59:49 2012, 美东)
This demand data is garbage and mean NOTHING! See NIU's discussion about
meaning of Monthly Demand Data with Mr. O here http://www.niunational.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1156&extra=page%3D1
发信人: jwe (Mike), 信区: EB23
标 题: Re: demand data根本没有什么用的。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 6 13:20:26 2012, 美东)
Right，而且现在从变成Demand到绿就1-2天时间，绿了以后就又不是demand了，所以根
本进不了那个demand data的统计。
07大潮前：
file 485 -> 几个月后pre-adjudicated（变成Demand）->3-4年后变绿
07大潮后：
file 485 -> 几个月后pre-adjudicated（变成Demand）->1-2天后变绿
所以07大潮前的Demand Data还有一定意义。
EB3还处于07大潮前，所以现在的Demand Data就对EB3还有点意义。 | t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 9 C?
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: 其实现在的dd没有任何意义，所以和vb没有任何联系
: 全看O的预期
: 所以这次的VB什么都可能发生
:
: cases.
| r****x
发帖数: 1250 | 10 thanks for the education.
cases.
【在 l*******o 的大作中提到】
: 转来的。正确与否，我也不知道。概不负责啊。
: Demand data numbers are low because demand data numbers only include
: adjudicated cases. USCIS goes through pre-adjudication, review and finally
: adjudicate the cases. The demand data will only show the applicants which
: are already adjudicated (sent all their documents to USCIS, FP done,
: Medicals done, have undergone security clearance, background checks have
: been completed, RFEs have been responded to etc. etc.). Basically, those
: applicants are the one who are just ready to be assigned a visa number and
: given green card.
: Typically, it takes on average 4-6 months for USCIS to adjudicate the cases.
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