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EB23版 - EB2-India & China Movement Analysis
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb2话题: visa话题: december话题: bulletin话题: movement
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1 (共1页)
l********h
发帖数: 21
1
EB2-India & China Movement
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-feb
Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012)
upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very
low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS
to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto
December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as
an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December
bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is
pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt
Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-
December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 =
9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will
continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS
processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the
movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the
next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall.
Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly.
Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also
feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need
to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That
eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April.
2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is
difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December
2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September
2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now
lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see
some more inventory numbers.
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like
if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is
resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st
December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article]
+ 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article]
+ 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for
October - November 2011 VB
l********h
发帖数: 21
2
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=
01-09-2012, 09:02 AM #3
Ron Gotcher
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Default Re: Feb 2012 Visa Bulletin is out
Based on the information contained in Part D, as well as the announced
demand data, it appears that the USCIS is not doing a very good job of
processing files to completion. If this continues (and it likely will), then
it is entirely possible that India and China EB2 could become current or
near-current by May.
l********h
发帖数: 21
3
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2012-01-15/rapid-cutoff-
The last few months have seen substantial advances in the China/India EB2
cutoff dates. Many people are puzzled and can’t understand why cutoff dates
are suddenly moving forward after so many years of slow movement. The
answer is demand. We published an article on the ImmInfo site some time back
that explains the overall mechanics of cutoff date movement.
The current rapid movement is the result of substantially lower than
expected demand. For visa cutoff date purposes, demand is shown in two ways:
First, there are the cases at the National Visa Center (NVC) that have been
classified as "documentarily complete." Second, there are the monthly
requests for immigrant visas made by the USCIS service centers as they
approve I-485 applications for adjustment of status.
Historically, the NVC cases represent only about 10% of the overall
potential demand. The remaining 90% comes from the USCIS. From what we have
been able to gather, the USCIS is not requesting large numbers of EB2
immigrant visas. This could be because they simply don't have files in their
inventory, or it could be that they are not processing cases to completion
at anything close to the rate necessary to assure full usage of the
immigrant visa quota for this year.
What we do know is that "demand" has been unusually low and is likely to
remain this way for at least the next few months. During this time, we can
expect to see China/India EB2 cutoff dates continue to advance at a rapid
rate. Unless something changes soon, we can expect to see China/India EB2
become current within a few months.
Please note that if this happens, it will not likely remain "current" for
very long. In all probability, we will see this cutoff date retrogress, most
likely back to somewhere in 2009, when the retrogression occurs later this
year.
For people who have filed for adjustment of status, their cases will remain
on file, pending a final decision, until their priority dates become "
current" again.
B*****g
发帖数: 34098
4
一个包子给把此系列翻译成中文

2012)
as

【在 l********h 的大作中提到】
: EB2-India & China Movement
: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-feb
: Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012)
: upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very
: low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS
: to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.
: Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto
: December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as
: an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December
: bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is

B*********h
发帖数: 1854
5

大概意思都是说最近几个月还要前进,然后后退。
这些信息从哪里来的?是律师的?

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 一个包子给把此系列翻译成中文
:
: 2012)
: as

f****l
发帖数: 8042
6
1,Unless something changes soon, we can expect to see China/India EB2
become current within a few months.
2,Please note that if this happens, it will not likely remain "current" for
very long. In all probability, we will see this cutoff date retrogress, most
likely back to somewhere in 2009, when the retrogression occurs later this
year.
M**U
发帖数: 2752
7
Source可靠吗?奥本有木有透漏神马消息?
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.38
p*****a
发帖数: 3634
8
hu you, jie zhe hu you

for
most
this

【在 f****l 的大作中提到】
: 1,Unless something changes soon, we can expect to see China/India EB2
: become current within a few months.
: 2,Please note that if this happens, it will not likely remain "current" for
: very long. In all probability, we will see this cutoff date retrogress, most
: likely back to somewhere in 2009, when the retrogression occurs later this
: year.

1 (共1页)
进入EB23版参与讨论
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三月份和明年停滞或者倒退的说法是来自于上个月的一个firm的网页新闻吧。EB-2 China and India Predictions
July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis ZTEB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins
烙印7月的EB2要前进到08年9月Capitol Immigration根据奥本最近信息做的EB排期预测
February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - ZZZZ--- Rapid EB cutoff date advances: What does this mean?
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: eb2话题: visa话题: december话题: bulletin话题: movement