c****r
发帖数: 969 | 1 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
suyazjm (Watering in English) 于 (Thu Jul 14 09:46:13 2011, 美东) 提到:
牛，顶
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 09:47:24 2011, 美东) 提到:
顶
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suyazjm (Watering in English) 于 (Thu Jul 14 09:51:04 2011, 美东) 提到:
老大，指点一下开源的数据库操作软件吧
可以在web页面增加删除等操作，
最好支持“外国key“关联的
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 09:54:07 2011, 美东) 提到:
mysql?
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wzxt (wzxt) 于 (Thu Jul 14 09:59:57 2011, 美东) 提到:
如果数据量不大，sql-server express will be ok. it much simpler to install
and get started and it is free.
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:02:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
sql-server express开源?
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:05:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
昨天看到数据比较吃惊。大家可以展开讨论。个人感觉９月排期无法前进多少。
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seansoon (商裔) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:11:25 2011, 美东) 提到:
This is very informatic! Worldwide, Eb has 140,000 limit. And we know July
Eb2 uses >100k spillovers. I guess August, uses about 5000.
Plus, new 485 submittals. There will be at most a few thousands SO left.
As a result, I don't think Aug bulletin will advance much.
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:12:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
进入７月没啥系了吧
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:18:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
我把数据串一下，你看看有没道理。８３８８在５／６月的时候说有３５０００左右的
剩余名额，我相信他还是套到CIS内幕的，半年批5万２左右职业移民，如果合理估计（
总额是１４万一年）下半年也批这么多，那么剩余名额就刚好和８３８８预计的完全相
符。此后其套到的８月排期解释是EB１，EB２ROW的大量增加，导致剩余名额减少，从
６月底１２万已经批准的人数上看，５，６月的确EB１，EB２比上半年增加了。
JWE之前分析说排期越不过大潮是非常理性的分析。不光是EB１，EB２ROW，还有新增需
求的新交４８５已慢慢开始占用名额。
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any (媒婆) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:19:27 2011, 美东) 提到:
可以理解为5,6两个月批了7w 吗？
上半年截止到４月３０日，职业移民总计审批发放52，475个绿卡名额。 同时公关组
志愿者和奥本海默的沟通中，获知截止到６月３０日，职业已经审批了１２１，０００
个绿卡名额
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:23:01 2011, 美东) 提到:
可以这么理解，如果奥本是能每天都看到审批数据，１２１０００应该包括了７月第一
周的审批数额。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:25:43 2011, 美东) 提到:
I think 121000 includes July data.
I think he included the 11k spillover in July. I am not sure.
If yes, the total left is about 20k for August/September.
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seansoon (商裔) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:29:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
If there is 20K, he should not have advanced August for only one month.
Plus, EB2 Rest of the world, new 485 submittals, and EB1 will continue taking the left quota 【 在 rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 的大作中提到: 】
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POORMS (enlightening) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:30:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
如果加上七八两个月放出来的1万五千名额，14W基本用的差不多了。明年夏天才能把大
潮清光了。
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youfellow (马甲一) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:31:21 2011, 美东) 提到:
你忘了ROW的存在了，他们一年搞到10万多，两个月就会用到1万8千左右。
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seansoon (商裔) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:32:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
totally agree..
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seansoon (商裔) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:32:25 2011, 美东) 提到:
Second this.
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musher (农民) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:32:31 2011, 美东) 提到:
这个分析很合理，不管怎么不情愿，下个月排期应该不会有大变动了
支持NIU
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Llama (Llama) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:34:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
Hi rocketsfan,
per LZ's post,
'获知截止到６月３０日，职业已经审批了１２１，０００个绿卡名额。'
Does that mean the total left is less than 20k for Jul/Aug/Sep?
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:35:23 2011, 美东) 提到:
梦醒了，看有没有人干实事
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:41:15 2011, 美东) 提到:
I think 121k includes the visa numbers assigned in July.
If 121k is the real data that has been used before June 30th, then he only
has 20k for July/August/September.EB2 China/India alone will consume 11k in
July and 2.5k in August. Then he only have 20k-11k-2.5k=6.5k left. At the
same time EB3/EB2ROW/EB1 are still being approved by small numbers. He will
have 0 visa number for September. I think it's almost impossible.
I think 121k includes the visa numbers assigned in July. In another word, he
left 20k for August and September. Basically EB2 I&C+EB2 ROW+EB1+EB3 will
have 20k left for the last two months.
If Mr.O used 121k in the first three quarters, then he violated the immigration law.
121k/140k=87%. This has exceeded the upper limit.
I firmly believe 121k includes the visa numbers assigned in July. I think he only used 100-110k before June 30th.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
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SinoGator (毛人弟弟) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:43:36 2011, 美东) 提到:
support!
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EBer (光脚不怕穿鞋的) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:46:12 2011, 美东) 提到:
这个要顶.
不知道具体数据什么时候公布?
另外NIU应该关注一下EB3I为什么能推进一个月(吃1000名额),而EB3C只能推进一个星期.是否把SO名额给EB3I了.除非今年有FFA.
此外,我还是坚持奥9月需要开闸放水.
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:48:56 2011, 美东) 提到:
NIU内部发的，你要的话，可以转给你一份。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:50:34 2011, 美东) 提到:
If Mr.O used 121k in the first three quarters, then he violated the
immigration law.
121k/140k=87%. This has exceeded the upper limit.
I firmly believe 121k includes the visa numbers assigned in July. I think he
only used 100-110k before June 30th.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
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Llama (Llama) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:51:38 2011, 美东) 提到:
Thanks for your analysis.
in
will
he
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IsItTrue (test) 于 (Thu Jul 14 10:51:48 2011, 美东) 提到:
这么多啊，那九月还能前进不。。。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:00:24 2011, 美东) 提到:
I don't know what kind of data you have.
He should not use 87% annual quota in the first 3 quarters. It violated the
law.
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:01:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
India EB3 advanced 1 month in August bulliten.
that means he still has quota for EB3.
it does not match up.
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:02:45 2011, 美东) 提到:
啥法律啊，你看到那个每月审批的具体数据会吓一跳，老印在前半年已经用完全年的配
额。
the
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Llama (Llama) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:03:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
官啊
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:06:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
please check the inventory data. that one month for EB3I only has about 600
cases.
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:10:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
名文规定每个国家批准不能超的，超大发了，又怎样。 当前不是和O理论这个的时候，
现在还玩不过他。大家还是想办法让他放开排期，因为就算排期多开放，也可以随时停
止审批，如2008那样。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:13:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
Based on my understanding, the maximum quarter number should not exceed 27%
of annual quota. The maximum he could use in the first 3 quarters is 81%.
Your data shows he already used 87%. He violated the law.
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EBer (光脚不怕穿鞋的) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:14:41 2011, 美东) 提到:
按你说EB2I四月用光QUOTA,5月吃了5000的SO肯定violated immigration law.
EB3I前进一个月需要1000的名额.别告诉我EB3I在此月还有1000的配额.如果没有FFA,就
是吃SO.
he
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:16:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
有个人曾说过，你和O讲法律，他和你讲道理，你和他讲道理，他会提法律。今年名额
太多，早放，合情合理嘛。呵呵，你怎么办， 有能耐去告＂我＂。
%
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:17:45 2011, 美东) 提到:
ROW also advanced. I think he will use several thousand visa numbers on EB3
in August. If he really used 121k before June 30th. He only has 20k left.
EB2 India and China will use 11k this month and 2.5k next month, several
thousand for EB3 and unknown number for EB1. Then he will have close to 0
visa number left for September. It does not add up.
600
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EBer (光脚不怕穿鞋的) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:18:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
应该是总数除剩下月数,结果应该接近1000.
600
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:18:52 2011, 美东) 提到:
老印EB３都是２００２，每个月６００左右，库存数据有的。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:19:11 2011, 美东) 提到:
All I am saying is that the number does not make sense.
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:21:22 2011, 美东) 提到:
PD停滞下来，或者不批就可以了，这发生过。
EB3
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:24:32 2011, 美东) 提到:
why did you change from "June 30" to "截止昨天获知"?
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acectl (磨) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:25:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
你别忘了20k是全世界的名额,全年140k,分到每个月就是11.6k,也就是说20k给两个月用
只能勉强满足正常的需要,没有什么so的余地了.
taking the left quota 【 在 rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 的大作中提到: 】
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:25:38 2011, 美东) 提到:
如果１２万是包括７月前１０天的批准数，我们假设他能看到每天或每周的数据，我想
还是非常合理的。２００００单独留给最后两个月，８月又前进这么少，更不可能。
我想主要因为距离你的预测太遥远。真有２００００给最后两个月，９月得大放EB３才
有可能不浪费名额。
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EBer (光脚不怕穿鞋的) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:25:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
谁都知道数据不合理.
关键奥现在就是:我这么干了,你能怎么着我....
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POORMS (enlightening) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:26:01 2011, 美东) 提到:
我觉得也不用争了。
对EB2C关键之处是不能让EB3I吃了SO。
对EB3C关键之处是每年把自己的名额都用掉。
ROW不是咱们能控制的。
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:27:52 2011, 美东) 提到:
消息昨天知道的，这样更能准确表达被告之的消息。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:29:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
In your original post, you said totally they used 121k by June 30th.
But now changed it to: "截止昨天获知".
I seriously doubt 121k is for first 3 quarters.
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:32:28 2011, 美东) 提到:
There is a huge difference between "June 30th" and yesterday.
Thousands of visa numbers were used in the past two weeks.
If you have the data month by month, you should be able to see whether this
data includes the first two weeks or not.
I don't know what kind of data you have, but it smells fishy.
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:33:15 2011, 美东) 提到:
ERIC JI发来消息说５２，０００可能低估了上半年的审批数量，因为没有算CP审批的
数目。
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:33:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
If Mr.O used 121k before June 30th, then he will only have 20k for the whole
world in the last three months.
It is impossible.
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:35:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
Your data smells really fishy..........
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:35:32 2011, 美东) 提到:
５２０００是每月批准的数目，可以查每月每个国家批准的数目，但只有半年的。１２
１００是被昨口头告之的数目。
this
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IsItTrue (test) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:37:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
口头有没有说具体时间？
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:37:57 2011, 美东) 提到:
发现你这人挺情绪化的，其实大家也是知道多少，拿出来讨论讨论。上个月还见你说其
他国家不审批的观点，选择性相信自己要达到的目的和预测，比较过了。
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Refreshe (Refreshe) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:38:18 2011, 美东) 提到:
Seriously, please do more research before you posted comments. Some of your
comments are really misleading for new guys.
the
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:39:37 2011, 美东) 提到:
You have the data, why don't you check whether it includes the number in
July or not. It sounds like you don't know whether it includes July or not.
If 121k is approved by June 30th, then only 20k left for the last quarter.
Everyone knows he already assigned 11k for July and 2.5k for August.At the
same time, EB3 advanced and EB1 is still being approved.
he will only have less than 6.5k for August and September. The number he
left for August and September will be 6500-EB3 approved-EB1 approved in July
.
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:40:12 2011, 美东) 提到:
没有，打了个电话问他能不能估计９月，不说，只好换个方法问他目前批多少，回答是
１２１００。
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:41:11 2011, 美东) 提到:
小声问一句，你在NIU里吗？
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:42:45 2011, 美东) 提到:
小声回答，在不在NIU那么重要吗？呵呵
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:43:36 2011, 美东) 提到:
I just want to know the details of your data.
Your original post was really misleading. You said "more than 121k has been
consumed by June 30th". I thought you got real data and you were confident
about this information. Finally you told us this data was obtained orally
and you only got data for the first half year.
Now it is clear. You only got data for the first half year and you are not
sure wherther 121k is used by June 30th.
I don't intend to attack anybody. I just want to make sure whether 121k is
solid data or not.
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:44:21 2011, 美东) 提到:
I did my research. I just wanted to get the truth.
your
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:45:52 2011, 美东) 提到:
The original post was posted by him/her.
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IsItTrue (test) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:46:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
现在原帖改了，不用争了
been
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POORMS (enlightening) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:47:48 2011, 美东) 提到:
非常希望你说得是对的。但一个月刚开始几天就宣布VISA number用光了以前也出现过。
现在最可怕的情况是O死按数据到明年七月才放水，明年的SO就全归EB3I了，我们还挑
不出毛病。
July
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rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:50:18 2011, 美东) 提到:
I firmly believe 121k includes the data in July.
I think he has 20k left for August/September.
EB2 will continue to move forward in the last VB.
The progress depends on whether Mr.O wants to build the pipeline or not. I
worry about the same thing. Mr.O is low IQ.
过。
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musher (农民) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:52:08 2011, 美东) 提到:
大家不要争了，火箭的意思是如果有准确数据证明121K在6.30前用光，那奥本就违法了
大家也都知道，奥本以前就干过不太合法的事，虽然他可能现在比较谨慎，但是也不排
除他继续干。另外数据不是NIU说了吗，有些delay，或许不太准确。大家争得就是这
121K是否包括7月，这个答案应该是不知道，NIU也不知道。等下个月VB出来就都明了了。
NIU能建立交流渠道，如果能继续下去，对广大EB2C EB3C都是好事
been
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:53:52 2011, 美东) 提到:
不太明白改了，还争，有时间有精力有能力做点事。
了。
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musher (农民) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:54:23 2011, 美东) 提到:
Everyone hopes you are right. Maybe only Mr. O knows the answer now.
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seansoon (商裔) 于 (Thu Jul 14 11:56:19 2011, 美东) 提到:
En... I've been holding to say this for a long time.
your
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Beijing (中国万岁，北京加油) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:00:19 2011, 美东) 提到:
I hope next month is C for everyone.
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seansoon (商裔) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:00:41 2011, 美东) 提到:
Does this matter? Even if the data is wrong, that's not NIU/CNUS's fault.
Every thing will be clear in a month.
【 在 rocketsfan (rocketsfan) 的大作中提到: 】
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miemiegougou (miemiegougou) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:09:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
我觉的火箭扇是分析数据的， 比较严谨，没有刻以争，只是要确定数据的准确性。
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Teamster (Cane) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:13:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
"目前" is yesterday, July 13th?
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Teamster (Cane) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:15:37 2011, 美东) 提到:
火箭扇是一个认真的人, 争争没坏处麻, 大家都是讨论问题.
法了
不排
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cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:15:38 2011, 美东) 提到:
给你们说得，我越来越觉得自己大有希望下个月排到。哈哈哈。
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Teamster (Cane) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:16:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
谁把原贴给煽了? 这么小孩子气?
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Refreshe (Refreshe) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:36:37 2011, 美东) 提到:
There are so many people hoping the best will come base on ungrounded
analysis and choose to belive what they want to believe. Also there are
people who like to "predict" without doing some serious homework.
Here is a good analysis I hope everyone should look at. I'm not saying his
prediction is correct. Actually, no one including Mr. O can accurately
predict the movement on a consistent basis. But the whole point is any
serious prediction on the bulletin should be based on published data,
reasonable assumption, accurate application of law and regulation as well as
objective analysis.
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/august-2011-visa-
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sanduolee (san) 于 (Thu Jul 14 12:40:22 2011, 美东) 提到:
Support.
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acectl (磨) 于 (Thu Jul 14 13:24:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
you are right. I also feel this 121k is unbelievable. Unless total EB can
exceed 140k, which might happen?
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