H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 1 http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2012,0227-crs.pdf
"It is not possible to statistically project the effects of revising the per
-country limits for several reasons."
"While it is possible that USCIS may be holding on to some approved I-485
petitions, the National Visa Center caseload is the data that drive the
priority dates published in the Visa Bulletin each month."
"The top four countries in both the National Visa Center and USCIS data sets
are (in rank order) India, the Philippines, the Peoples’ Republic of China
, and Mexico. The data analyses suggest that the vast number of Indians are
waiting to adjust status in the United States, while the vast number of
Filipinos are waiting to immigrate from abroad. Those with approved pending
cases from China seem to be more evenly split among new arrivals and those
seeking to adjust status." (graphed on page 20)
"4 major principles currently underlie U.S. policy on legal permanent
immigration: the reunification of families, the admission of legal permanent
residents (LPRs) with needed skills,the protection of refugees, and the
diversity of admissions by country of origin."
大家如果怕看这么多页的英文，去看看第6,9,13,14,15,17,18,19,20, 24, 25, 26页的
图也好玩啊。
"Some have observed that the 50,000 diversity visas would be better used for
high-skilled immigrants.42 For example, H.R. 43 would eliminate the
diversity visa lottery and reallocate its 55,000 visas to foreign nationals
who graduated from U.S. universities with degrees in the sciences or
medicine and who have job offers." | I*****N
发帖数: 497 | 2 老赫, 3012 究竟怎么样了? 你能不能打听点内幕消息?
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2012,0227-crs.pdf
: "It is not possible to statistically project the effects of revising the per
: -country limits for several reasons."
: "While it is possible that USCIS may be holding on to some approved I-485
: petitions, the National Visa Center caseload is the data that drive the
: priority dates published in the Visa Bulletin each month."
: "The top four countries in both the National Visa Center and USCIS data sets
: are (in rank order) India, the Philippines, the Peoples’ Republic of China
: , and Mexico. The data analyses suggest that the vast number of Indians are
: waiting to adjust status in the United States, while the vast number of
| H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 3 打听不到。人家顶多说 very positive，但是木有人知道时间表，等于什木也木有说。
移民律师Ron Gotcher认为两个时间比较关键，一个是八月中旬之前，一个是十一月中
旬到十二月中旬。他的原话摘抄如下："Normally, during a presidential election
year, congress will try to conclude all work by the time the second
political convention occurs (in this case, mid-August). They are going to
take time out for the Republican convention and then return to work until
the Democratic convention. After that, everyone is going to go home and
campaign for re-election.
As an historical aside, most immigration legislation has been passed during
"lame duck" sessions of congress. This is the session that occurs after the
election, but before the new congress takes over, generally mid-November to
mid-December. "
"hen a deal is struck in Congress, they generally try to act on it as
quickly as possible before it has a chance to fall apart. If they aren't
doing anything, it is likely because they haven't reached a final deal yet. "
"Most politicians see "immigrants" as a unified group. If they "do something
for immigrants" then they believe that they have satisfied a constituent
group and can move on. And, yes, they really are that stupid. If you don't
believe me, make an appointment and go talk with your local member of
congress."
"Back in the late '90s, when the H quota was reached for the first time,
salaries in some IT occupations almost doubled in the span of two years. Why
? Because with a limited supply of needed workers, the only way that
companies could get the people they needed was by raiding other companies. I
remain convinced that the Internet bubble burst when it did because start
up companies had to use their initial capital at a much faster rate than
would have been the case without an H1B quota. When the first companies
started going bust, investors got nervous.
We are about to see something similar happen this year and next. There
simply aren't enough IT workers in the U.S. Companies will have to hire
qualified employee from other companies (at higher salaries) or send their
work offshore (with layoffs for other U.S. workers). Either way, it is not
going to be good. Big business is aware of this problem and they have been
screaming their heads off to Congress for years about it. "
最新听到的一个比较有意思的话题是有人想分析一下，现在有多少ROW的职业移民通过
抽签得到绿卡，将来ROW的职业移民等待时间延长之后，是否会更有动机利用抽签取得
绿卡。但是没有这样的研究报告，因为历史数据和未来推演都很难。
【在 I*****N 的大作中提到】
: 老赫, 3012 究竟怎么样了? 你能不能打听点内幕消息?
| n****o
发帖数: 1167 | 4 老赫，问一个弱智的问题
我刚跳槽，新公司重新开始走绿卡程序，如果顺利几个月后可以relink我的旧PD,10年6
月份的
请问如果3012过了，我这种情况是不是赶不上班车了？
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 打听不到。人家顶多说 very positive，但是木有人知道时间表，等于什木也木有说。
: 移民律师Ron Gotcher认为两个时间比较关键，一个是八月中旬之前，一个是十一月中
: 旬到十二月中旬。他的原话摘抄如下："Normally, during a presidential election
: year, congress will try to conclude all work by the time the second
: political convention occurs (in this case, mid-August). They are going to
: take time out for the Republican convention and then return to work until
: the Democratic convention. After that, everyone is going to go home and
: campaign for re-election.
: As an historical aside, most immigration legislation has been passed during
: "lame duck" sessions of congress. This is the session that occurs after the
| p*******y
发帖数: 173 | 5 建议多follow 烙印 immigration voice 的网站。他们有最新消息，就会披露的。
【在 I*****N 的大作中提到】
: 老赫, 3012 究竟怎么样了? 你能不能打听点内幕消息?
| p*******y
发帖数: 173 | 6 建议多follow 烙印 immigration voice 的网站。他们有最新消息，就会披露的。
【在 I*****N 的大作中提到】
: 老赫, 3012 究竟怎么样了? 你能不能打听点内幕消息?
| H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 7 如果一切顺利我觉得影响很小。如果被audit了就惨了。
年6
【在 n****o 的大作中提到】
: 老赫，问一个弱智的问题
: 我刚跳槽，新公司重新开始走绿卡程序，如果顺利几个月后可以relink我的旧PD,10年6
: 月份的
: 请问如果3012过了，我这种情况是不是赶不上班车了？
| n****o
发帖数: 1167 | 8 被audit什么意思？一般什么情况会被audit? 就是RFE吗？ 如果缺材料就补材料呗，为
什么会惨了？
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 如果一切顺利我觉得影响很小。如果被audit了就惨了。
:
: 年6
| q******o
发帖数: 2503 | 9 被audit会delay，delay个一年半载很正常，140不批就算排期到了也不能递485
【在 n****o 的大作中提到】
: 被audit什么意思？一般什么情况会被audit? 就是RFE吗？ 如果缺材料就补材料呗，为
: 什么会惨了？
| A******s
发帖数: 427 | 10 应该是perm不批不能递485
【在 q******o 的大作中提到】
: 被audit会delay，delay个一年半载很正常，140不批就算排期到了也不能递485
| p****c
发帖数: 147 | 11 你听他吹
【在 n****o 的大作中提到】
: 被audit什么意思？一般什么情况会被audit? 就是RFE吗？ 如果缺材料就补材料呗，为
: 什么会惨了？
| p****c
发帖数: 147 | 12 nice
【在 p*******y 的大作中提到】
: 建议多follow 烙印 immigration voice 的网站。他们有最新消息，就会披露的。
| w*******t
发帖数: 928 | 13 这个抽签抽到也不是件容易的事情呀。我以前有个同事因为公司不给办绿卡于是年年去
抽签，抽了这么多年也没有抽中。再以前有个同学是某国家抽签拿绿卡来美国读书的，
据他讲他们本科板上很多同学都在抽，也只有他抽中了来了美国。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 打听不到。人家顶多说 very positive，但是木有人知道时间表，等于什木也木有说。
: 移民律师Ron Gotcher认为两个时间比较关键，一个是八月中旬之前，一个是十一月中
: 旬到十二月中旬。他的原话摘抄如下："Normally, during a presidential election
: year, congress will try to conclude all work by the time the second
: political convention occurs (in this case, mid-August). They are going to
: take time out for the Republican convention and then return to work until
: the Democratic convention. After that, everyone is going to go home and
: campaign for re-election.
: As an historical aside, most immigration legislation has been passed during
: "lame duck" sessions of congress. This is the session that occurs after the
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