a*****s
发帖数: 14 | 1 baseball的sample够大，
一个hitter vs pitcher是独立事件，
而且重复多次，所以可以用来做统计啊。
football/basketball都没有这条件。 | a****c
发帖数: 11 | 2 hehe,
people not alwasy rational. game theory is complicated, poeple tend to deviate
under pressure.
See the following link of the paper:
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9024
吗？别介意，我就是学那个的，所以好奇别的球迷到底怎么考虑教练的“Call"
等 | H****t
发帖数: 2542 | 3
thanks for this information.
I quickly went through that paper just now. interesting.
The paper says---
"On the 1575 4th downs in the sample where the analysis implies that
teams are on average better off kicking, they went for it only 7 times.
But on the 1100 4th downs where the analysi implies that teams are on
average better off going for it, they kicked 992 times".
So teams' actual choices are dramatically more conservative than the
choices recommended by the dynamic-programming analysis.
不
【在 a****c 的大作中提到】
: hehe,
: people not alwasy rational. game theory is complicated, poeple tend to deviate
: under pressure.
: See the following link of the paper:
: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9024
:
: 吗？别介意，我就是学那个的，所以好奇别的球迷到底怎么考虑教练的“Call"
: 等
| H****t
发帖数: 2542 | 4 刚才查了一下，2-pt conversion是在1994年引入NFL的。
不过之前长期存在于AFL和college football中。
【在 a*****s 的大作中提到】
: baseball的sample够大，
: 一个hitter vs pitcher是独立事件，
: 而且重复多次，所以可以用来做统计啊。
: football/basketball都没有这条件。
|
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