h***o
发帖数: 2321 | 1 It does not take long to find the list and estmate the cost.
It takes quite a few years to develop a Qb, so let's look at picks
between 1991 and 2005
Here is what you would get:
HOF level: Payton Manning
probowl level: Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli
Manning
so it is about 40% chance, I would not want to gamble with that rate, would
you?
91
Dan McGwire
Todd Marinovich
92
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
93
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer
94
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer
95
Steve | b**j
发帖数: 20742 | 2 算法不严谨。还有很多最近的，你default成bust, 不行吧。比如,
where is big ben? philip rivers? how about donovan mcnabb?
aaron rodgers?
结论我是同意的。rookie pay is ridiculous, 烂队年年top 10
pick, 结果大把资金套牢在rookie上，bust一个2个就5年10年不得
翻身了
Eli
would
【在 h***o 的大作中提到】
: It does not take long to find the list and estmate the cost.
: It takes quite a few years to develop a Qb, so let's look at picks
: between 1991 and 2005
: Here is what you would get:
: HOF level: Payton Manning
: probowl level: Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli
: Manning
: so it is about 40% chance, I would not want to gamble with that rate, would
: you?
: 91
| h***o
发帖数: 2321 | 3 我简化了算法，只考虑当年最先pick的QB
【在 b**j 的大作中提到】
: 算法不严谨。还有很多最近的，你default成bust, 不行吧。比如,
: where is big ben? philip rivers? how about donovan mcnabb?
: aaron rodgers?
: 结论我是同意的。rookie pay is ridiculous, 烂队年年top 10
: pick, 结果大把资金套牢在rookie上，bust一个2个就5年10年不得
: 翻身了
:
: Eli
: would
| a******n
发帖数: 4290 | | J**e
发帖数: 15008 | 5 本不是top10。。。
【在 b**j 的大作中提到】
: 算法不严谨。还有很多最近的，你default成bust, 不行吧。比如,
: where is big ben? philip rivers? how about donovan mcnabb?
: aaron rodgers?
: 结论我是同意的。rookie pay is ridiculous, 烂队年年top 10
: pick, 结果大把资金套牢在rookie上，bust一个2个就5年10年不得
: 翻身了
:
: Eli
: would
| o****3
发帖数: 5100 | 6 Not trying to beat a dead horse: but it is hard to evaluate a 1st round
rookie.
You can use your method to check any position of 1st round, that rate will
not be much higher.
I read it somewhere the bust rate of 1st rd dt is worse than qb.
Eli
would
【在 h***o 的大作中提到】
: It does not take long to find the list and estmate the cost.
: It takes quite a few years to develop a Qb, so let's look at picks
: between 1991 and 2005
: Here is what you would get:
: HOF level: Payton Manning
: probowl level: Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli
: Manning
: so it is about 40% chance, I would not want to gamble with that rate, would
: you?
: 91
|
|
