s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: badcompany (bad), 信区: Stock
标 题: re ibeyond: Why I think stagflation talk unrealistic.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 19 03:08:13 2008)
ibeyond, your discussion about the inflation threat has been very good,
however, I don't agree with your argument that recent years are comparable
with 1970 and we could have a stagflation. Of course if we are going to have
a stagflation then stock market will be slaughtered. However, I think the
chance of this scenario is very small.
The ri | d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 2 badcompany has made a few analysis, especially those history pattern
comparisons, that I see rather superficial, but I have to totally agree with
this one. And his analysis on this one is convincing. I have been holding
the opinion that, even we have a long term commodity boom, stagflation will
unlikely repeat in the form of 70s.
There are some underlying changes to draw this conclusion. The most
significant is the global evolution of capital and labor forces, and its
impact on US economy. The m
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: badcompany (bad), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: re ibeyond: Why I think stagflation talk unrealistic.
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 19 03:08:13 2008)
: ibeyond, your discussion about the inflation threat has been very good,
: however, I don't agree with your argument that recent years are comparable
: with 1970 and we could have a stagflation. Of course if we are going to have
: a stagflation then stock market will be slaughtered. However, I think the
: chance of this scenario is very small.
: The ri
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