a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 1 关于美国前景和日本当年泡沫破裂后的异同
美国长期国债利率的走势 和 通胀前景 |
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 2 ph.d thesis.
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: 关于美国前景和日本当年泡沫破裂后的异同
: 美国长期国债利率的走势 和 通胀前景
|
T*******t
发帖数: 9274 | 3 不同之处在于日本人都是savers...美国人都是consumers
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: 关于美国前景和日本当年泡沫破裂后的异同
: 美国长期国债利率的走势 和 通胀前景
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 4 topic too big. I'll try to write some what I know piece by piece.
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: 关于美国前景和日本当年泡沫破裂后的异同
: 美国长期国债利率的走势 和 通胀前景
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 5
also what is the mortgage rate during those years? thanks
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: 关于美国前景和日本当年泡沫破裂后的异同
: 美国长期国债利率的走势 和 通胀前景
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 6 I have to say US has some advantages that Japan didn't have in 90s.
First is that USD is the only international reserve currency.
Second is that this crisis is deeply worldwide.
I think these difference will make US succeed in fighting deflation
or maybe I should say fail in a different way.
We have to talk a little about why JPY is even much stronger than USD
during this massive deleverage process. My understand is that the
problem can be traced back to 90s. As I said before, in 90s, BOJ was
ac
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: 关于美国前景和日本当年泡沫破裂后的异同
: 美国长期国债利率的走势 和 通胀前景
|
G******0
发帖数: 737 | 7 ding, thanks~
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I have to say US has some advantages that Japan didn't have in 90s.
: First is that USD is the only international reserve currency.
: Second is that this crisis is deeply worldwide.
: I think these difference will make US succeed in fighting deflation
: or maybe I should say fail in a different way.
: We have to talk a little about why JPY is even much stronger than USD
: during this massive deleverage process. My understand is that the
: problem can be traced back to 90s. As I said before, in 90s, BOJ was
: ac
|
h**********e
发帖数: 34 | 8 终于看见版主出手了一次. 顶.
可不可以把楼主的问题分成几个topics, 每个开一个帖子,系统分析一下.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I have to say US has some advantages that Japan didn't have in 90s.
: First is that USD is the only international reserve currency.
: Second is that this crisis is deeply worldwide.
: I think these difference will make US succeed in fighting deflation
: or maybe I should say fail in a different way.
: We have to talk a little about why JPY is even much stronger than USD
: during this massive deleverage process. My understand is that the
: problem can be traced back to 90s. As I said before, in 90s, BOJ was
: ac
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 You might have heard the words "Quantitative Easing", which basically
means when adjusting interest rate is not effective or even not
possible, the central bank will essentially print money and inject
money directly into the economic system. The idea is simple: say in
the economic system there are 100 units of money and 100 units of
goods. Then naturally the price of goods will be 1. Now the central
bank print another 100 units of money, and use it to buy 50 units of
goods. Then in the system, w
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I have to say US has some advantages that Japan didn't have in 90s.
: First is that USD is the only international reserve currency.
: Second is that this crisis is deeply worldwide.
: I think these difference will make US succeed in fighting deflation
: or maybe I should say fail in a different way.
: We have to talk a little about why JPY is even much stronger than USD
: during this massive deleverage process. My understand is that the
: problem can be traced back to 90s. As I said before, in 90s, BOJ was
: ac
|
h**********e
发帖数: 34 | 10 版主, 我们等下文呢...
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: You might have heard the words "Quantitative Easing", which basically
: means when adjusting interest rate is not effective or even not
: possible, the central bank will essentially print money and inject
: money directly into the economic system. The idea is simple: say in
: the economic system there are 100 units of money and 100 units of
: goods. Then naturally the price of goods will be 1. Now the central
: bank print another 100 units of money, and use it to buy 50 units of
: goods. Then in the system, w
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|
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c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
q********e
发帖数: 161 | |
s*****r
发帖数: 62 | 13 放心好了，这次政府救世不会把美国变成日本的。最多变成阿根廷，或者90年代的俄罗
斯。但20年后因为自身和世界的发展，特别是很多发展中国家会变得更富裕，美国肯定
会变得比2000年好得多。
其实超常线价值投资者，比如巴菲特是不会在乎今后几年有什么严重灾难的。近400年
来，所有民族国家都经历了各种风雨，绝大多数从危机中爬起来，经过几年几十年时间
，变得比以前好了不知多少倍。几乎没什么国家被危机战乱彻底wipe out 的。就说俄
国90年代那么惨，如果你有机会在苏联解体时就投资石油和军火公司，现在也赚大发了
。再说美国，巴菲特在60-70年的熊市里可是赚了很多钱的。
问题是普通人没那么多闲钱，没那么多关系网，没那么长time frame, 玩不起这种游戏
。狡兔三窟实为上策。
【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】
: 不同之处在于日本人都是savers...美国人都是consumers
|
s*****r
发帖数: 62 | 14 我不同意版主的观点。fed买长期债券和降息为0的方法是徒劳的，绝对不会成功的。大
本大前年开始升息其实是在弥补格林斯潘屈从布什集团为发动战争需要维持低利率，来
制造虚假经济繁荣的错误。因为04年开始，商品价格开始快速上涨，如不果断升息，通
胀会失控。看看04，05，06年的经济新闻，从来都是通胀忧虑占头条。特别是那时每年
的夏天，油价都狂涨，股市都会随之大跌，就是这种忧虑的表现。大本是个明白人。升
息会影响地产业，但也不过是经济的5%而已，而且不会立刻显现。可是他不知道的是此
举对金融衍生市场有多庞大，对地产繁荣有多依赖。如果那时知道问题严重性，而采取
预防措施，还是很有效的。就像扁鹊给齐桓公看病的道理一样。
现在看来美国经济复苏还得靠经济发展的自然规律，就是供求平衡。这得要两三年或更
长时间。就好比野火把腐朽的东西烧尽，新生力量才会从新生长壮大。
我们老百姓就别抱不切实际的幻想，保住本钱，别在更大的灾难降临时一无所有。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: You might have heard the words "Quantitative Easing", which basically
: means when adjusting interest rate is not effective or even not
: possible, the central bank will essentially print money and inject
: money directly into the economic system. The idea is simple: say in
: the economic system there are 100 units of money and 100 units of
: goods. Then naturally the price of goods will be 1. Now the central
: bank print another 100 units of money, and use it to buy 50 units of
: goods. Then in the system, w
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 15 Imagine a door is stuck and you try to push it open. Only that you
have to push it so hard that you'll have to put all your bodyweight
on it. Well, the moment it opens, you can be almost certain that
you'll lose your balance and fall down to the ground.
Unless somebody gives you a hand.
Ironically, only China is qualified to give the hand, and China will
most likely give her hand. But it's gonna be very tricky how they do
it.
In this worldwide crisis, China and US are facing the exactly two
oppo
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: You might have heard the words "Quantitative Easing", which basically
: means when adjusting interest rate is not effective or even not
: possible, the central bank will essentially print money and inject
: money directly into the economic system. The idea is simple: say in
: the economic system there are 100 units of money and 100 units of
: goods. Then naturally the price of goods will be 1. Now the central
: bank print another 100 units of money, and use it to buy 50 units of
: goods. Then in the system, w
|
s*****r
发帖数: 62 | 16 这都哪儿跟哪儿啊？
你猜想中国会花外汇救美国，又建议中国把外汇用在买石油上，这不是互相矛盾吗？
中国刺激国内消费就是把出口美国的产品就地消化，结果出口的少了，换回的美元少了
，买美国国债的外汇也少了，这是救美国还是害美国呀？
中国自己的问题还搞不定，真要能救美国，还和其他国家签货币互换协议干什么？不就
是怕美元崩盘影响中国对其他国家贸易嘛。
美国货币发行量从几个月前的8000亿，一下涨到2：。2万亿，而且明年会到3。5万亿。
这几万亿下去都解决不了问题，中国那1。9T算个啥？美国明年地方政府都要bailout,
因为各州失业救济金用完了，税又收不上来。还得一千亿。Prime房贷爆发，CRE危机爆
发，信用卡危机爆发，相关债券不得几个T.巴马还要兴土木，造3M工作，一个工作pay3
万块，就又是一千亿，而且政府今后4年赤字是一年一个T。
就别做梦中国救美国了，世界人民都会笑的：http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/opinion/21friedman.html?hp。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Imagine a door is stuck and you try to push it open. Only that you
: have to push it so hard that you'll have to put all your bodyweight
: on it. Well, the moment it opens, you can be almost certain that
: you'll lose your balance and fall down to the ground.
: Unless somebody gives you a hand.
: Ironically, only China is qualified to give the hand, and China will
: most likely give her hand. But it's gonna be very tricky how they do
: it.
: In this worldwide crisis, China and US are facing the exactly two
: oppo
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 17 I might not be totally correct. But if you want to give some opinion,
try to understand what I am saying first, or at least let me finish
what I am saying.
I am not saying China will bring US out from hell. I am just saying
China has the ability to provide US some buffer because China need
more time to shift structure of trade and production.
China doesn't save US for charity. China help US for its own good.
pay3
【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】
: 这都哪儿跟哪儿啊？
: 你猜想中国会花外汇救美国，又建议中国把外汇用在买石油上，这不是互相矛盾吗？
: 中国刺激国内消费就是把出口美国的产品就地消化，结果出口的少了，换回的美元少了
: ，买美国国债的外汇也少了，这是救美国还是害美国呀？
: 中国自己的问题还搞不定，真要能救美国，还和其他国家签货币互换协议干什么？不就
: 是怕美元崩盘影响中国对其他国家贸易嘛。
: 美国货币发行量从几个月前的8000亿，一下涨到2：。2万亿，而且明年会到3。5万亿。
: 这几万亿下去都解决不了问题，中国那1。9T算个啥？美国明年地方政府都要bailout,
: 因为各州失业救济金用完了，税又收不上来。还得一千亿。Prime房贷爆发，CRE危机爆
: 发，信用卡危机爆发，相关债券不得几个T.巴马还要兴土木，造3M工作，一个工作pay3
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 18
pay3
I agree with demon on this one. In a world of fiat money, it is foolish to
think we will just replay 1929-style deflation, especially when the money
has nowhere else to go.
Now looking back, it is almost like they have planned it. First, delay the
impact of subprime mortgage issue. Second, wait for the world economy to
collapse. Last, start to print money as much as they want. It is hard to
have deflation if the government is printing trillions of dollar at a time.
However, I want to cauti
【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】
: 这都哪儿跟哪儿啊？
: 你猜想中国会花外汇救美国，又建议中国把外汇用在买石油上，这不是互相矛盾吗？
: 中国刺激国内消费就是把出口美国的产品就地消化，结果出口的少了，换回的美元少了
: ，买美国国债的外汇也少了，这是救美国还是害美国呀？
: 中国自己的问题还搞不定，真要能救美国，还和其他国家签货币互换协议干什么？不就
: 是怕美元崩盘影响中国对其他国家贸易嘛。
: 美国货币发行量从几个月前的8000亿，一下涨到2：。2万亿，而且明年会到3。5万亿。
: 这几万亿下去都解决不了问题，中国那1。9T算个啥？美国明年地方政府都要bailout,
: 因为各州失业救济金用完了，税又收不上来。还得一千亿。Prime房贷爆发，CRE危机爆
: 发，信用卡危机爆发，相关债券不得几个T.巴马还要兴土木，造3M工作，一个工作pay3
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 19 Meanwhile, long-term US treasuries are in a clear artificial bubble
right now. Once the job is done, treasuries will simply crash because
the central bank will be holding too many and they will find no buyer
at that time. A crash in bond market will be more painful than a crash
in stock market. |
C****8
发帖数: 332 | 20 多谢版主!
我正坐着小板凳,认真记笔记呢.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I might not be totally correct. But if you want to give some opinion,
: try to understand what I am saying first, or at least let me finish
: what I am saying.
: I am not saying China will bring US out from hell. I am just saying
: China has the ability to provide US some buffer because China need
: more time to shift structure of trade and production.
: China doesn't save US for charity. China help US for its own good.
:
: pay3
|
