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Investment版 - Jim Rogers: S&P to 50,000 & Dow Jones to 1,00,000 (转载)
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: jim话题: rogers话题: us话题: jones话题: he
进入Investment版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
s********n
发帖数: 1962
1
【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: theboxer (boxer), 信区: Stock
标 题: Jim Rogers: S&P to 50,000 & Dow Jones to 1,00,000
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 3 13:06:32 2009)
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/258129/Jim-Rogers-S&P-Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and
the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones
can go to 1,00,000.
o*****c
发帖数: 241
2
jim becomes funnier and funnier when he gets old.

Jones

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: theboxer (boxer), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Jim Rogers: S&P to 50,000 & Dow Jones to 1,00,000
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 3 13:06:32 2009)
: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/258129/Jim-Rogers-S&P-Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
: because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and
: the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones
: can go to 1,00,000.

c****o
发帖数: 32446
3
老大是不是转错版了,该转joke版吧
s********n
发帖数: 1962
4
yeah.. 50,000 might be a joke. But it got a point.

【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 老大是不是转错版了,该转joke版吧
b*********e
发帖数: 2642
5
Jim是不是在大牛里头是最爱预测的?

Jones

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: theboxer (boxer), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Jim Rogers: S&P to 50,000 & Dow Jones to 1,00,000
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 3 13:06:32 2009)
: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/258129/Jim-Rogers-S&P-Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
: because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and
: the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones
: can go to 1,00,000.

m**********r
发帖数: 887
6
我被Jim Rogers忽悠今天上了12%的DBA
b*****e
发帖数: 1125
7
I will say he is the guy who 最忽悠.

【在 b*********e 的大作中提到】
: Jim是不是在大牛里头是最爱预测的?
:
: Jones

k**u
发帖数: 698
8
Taking things to extremes helps formulating points to less sophisticated
audiences.
I honest feel Jim has a point, either right or wrong, is far from a joke.

【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 老大是不是转错版了,该转joke版吧
s********n
发帖数: 1962
9
he has been right pretty much all the time.

【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I will say he is the guy who 最忽悠.
b*****e
发帖数: 1125
10
I saw your post in Jinghua Qu, it seems you are big fan of him.
I agree he is a good investor but to say he's pretty much all the time, i
really can't comment anything.
相关主题
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Deflation or Hyperinflation?buy a house or not
谁给说说,美元会贬值吗?请问在哪里可以买到实物黄金?
进入Investment版参与讨论
b*****h
发帖数: 3386
11
agree. He himself said he is a lousy trader. but I consider
he is a genius investor. His long-term view makes great sense to me.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: he has been right pretty much all the time.
f**********r
发帖数: 2137
12
jim rogers的预测通常都早半年左右,非常牛,他只是喜欢用夸张语气搞笑而已

Jones

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: theboxer (boxer), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Jim Rogers: S&P to 50,000 & Dow Jones to 1,00,000
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 3 13:06:32 2009)
: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/258129/Jim-Rogers-S&P-Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
: because the S&P 500 could triple from here if they print enough money and
: the value of the US dollar collapses, then S&P could go to 50,000, Dow Jones
: can go to 1,00,000.

s********n
发帖数: 1962
13
So give me an example that he's been seriously wrong :)
Note: make sure you put the example on the same time frame he has. This is
a guy who calls one year 'short term'.

【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I saw your post in Jinghua Qu, it seems you are big fan of him.
: I agree he is a good investor but to say he's pretty much all the time, i
: really can't comment anything.

b*****e
发帖数: 1125
14
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/27/content_5444620.htm
Not serious wrong, but many individual investors in China lost tons of money
follwoing his instruction.
s********n
发帖数: 1962
15
I have to say most individual investors in China (actually not only in China)
are nothing but a joke.
As I said, look at the right time frame. If you don't want to hold something
for 5 or 10 years, or at least, if you don't understand how a long-term
trend works out, don't even bother to listen to Jim Rogers. He himself
said he is the worst market timer in the world. Many people put money into
something based on Roger's recommendation and then hope to get some big
gain after a week. Well, I woul

【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/27/content_5444620.htm
: Not serious wrong, but many individual investors in China lost tons of money
: follwoing his instruction.

b*****e
发帖数: 1125
16
Hehe. So I am also a joker as an individual chinese market investor.
One thing I want to remind. Predict long term is relativly easier than
forecasting in short term. Especially when you add inflation into
consideration, almost everthing goes up in 10 to 20 years perspective.

China)
something

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I have to say most individual investors in China (actually not only in China)
: are nothing but a joke.
: As I said, look at the right time frame. If you don't want to hold something
: for 5 or 10 years, or at least, if you don't understand how a long-term
: trend works out, don't even bother to listen to Jim Rogers. He himself
: said he is the worst market timer in the world. Many people put money into
: something based on Roger's recommendation and then hope to get some big
: gain after a week. Well, I woul

e****g
发帖数: 469
17
He has a point.
Right now, it is a choice between deflation and hyperinflation. My
personal take is deflation. But Jim apparently is opted for
hyperinflation. That also explains why he has been bullish on
commodities.

Could-Go-to-50000?tickers=dia,spy,xlf?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
and
Jones

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I have to say most individual investors in China (actually not only in China)
: are nothing but a joke.
: As I said, look at the right time frame. If you don't want to hold something
: for 5 or 10 years, or at least, if you don't understand how a long-term
: trend works out, don't even bother to listen to Jim Rogers. He himself
: said he is the worst market timer in the world. Many people put money into
: something based on Roger's recommendation and then hope to get some big
: gain after a week. Well, I woul

b*****e
发帖数: 1125
18
好奇的问一下,Rogers现在还管理基金吗?有谁有它的track record。谢谢。
N********n
发帖数: 8363
19

When there's an oversupply of Dollar, its value goes down for sure.
JR is simply telling people how the law of supply and demand works.

【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 老大是不是转错版了,该转joke版吧
N********n
发帖数: 8363
20

Agree. When seeking long term advice, I listen to people like Jim
Rogers, Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. They understand how supply and
demand works.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: So give me an example that he's been seriously wrong :)
: Note: make sure you put the example on the same time frame he has. This is
: a guy who calls one year 'short term'.

相关主题
通胀之前都有哪些迹象?[合集] when hyperinflation comes....
[合集] more about inflation/deflation[合集] Deflation or Hyperinflation?
Dollar sinks like a rockDeflation or Hyper Inflation?
进入Investment版参与讨论
h****h
发帖数: 1168
21
jim rogers will be on cnbc one hour later, 1pm et.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Agree. When seeking long term advice, I listen to people like Jim
: Rogers, Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. They understand how supply and
: demand works.

S******n
发帖数: 617
22
老兄,我觉得美元的走向受很多因素影响,不是反对你提到的,只是想说说
另一面的情况,将来哪一面的影响更显著,恐怕很不好说。
1.过去几年极度膨胀的是美元信贷,而不是美联储印出来的纸币,虽然两者都
可以买东西当钱用,但是前者存在的前提是债务人按时付账。现在每天发生的
是公司和消费者还不起帐,实质上在不停地大规模毁灭美元信贷和降低杠杆。
2.美国差,欧洲和亚洲更加差劲。如果欧亚任何地方先出现国家崩溃引发骨牌
效应的话,很可能引起资金出逃,逃进美元避风港。英国的地产泡沫相对来说比
美国更大,外债占鸡的屁比例更高....拉脱维亚国债拍卖失败,等等。
3.世界上最强大的军队还是有能力在欧亚举事点火制造事端的,伊朗,北朝鲜...
4.目前大宗商品的疯狂上涨里面有多少投机成分不好说,似乎大家可以在交易所
里操作期货的都大涨,但是需要实打实买下来存起来的却跌价。石油不算特例,
全世界储油设施都被银行搜出来用了,可是卡车,航空等等用油行业却不断
萎缩,同时全美汽车总里程这几个月也在一直下降,经济需求和价格脱钩。
(我持有TLT的长扑但这只是短期投机)

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Agree. When seeking long term advice, I listen to people like Jim
: Rogers, Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. They understand how supply and
: demand works.

s********n
发帖数: 1962
23
在这个问题上,我和你有一样的想法。
我特想和 Jim Rogers 探讨一下这个问题。其实也不是没有人和他提起过,但是
这老头从来没有认真回答过这个问题,就是一再强调印了钞票必然通胀。对此俺
对他非常不满。

【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: 老兄,我觉得美元的走向受很多因素影响,不是反对你提到的,只是想说说
: 另一面的情况,将来哪一面的影响更显著,恐怕很不好说。
: 1.过去几年极度膨胀的是美元信贷,而不是美联储印出来的纸币,虽然两者都
: 可以买东西当钱用,但是前者存在的前提是债务人按时付账。现在每天发生的
: 是公司和消费者还不起帐,实质上在不停地大规模毁灭美元信贷和降低杠杆。
: 2.美国差,欧洲和亚洲更加差劲。如果欧亚任何地方先出现国家崩溃引发骨牌
: 效应的话,很可能引起资金出逃,逃进美元避风港。英国的地产泡沫相对来说比
: 美国更大,外债占鸡的屁比例更高....拉脱维亚国债拍卖失败,等等。
: 3.世界上最强大的军队还是有能力在欧亚举事点火制造事端的,伊朗,北朝鲜...
: 4.目前大宗商品的疯狂上涨里面有多少投机成分不好说,似乎大家可以在交易所

b*****e
发帖数: 1125
24
说得不错,很多人看空美元,但我对此一直持有保留意见。
首先,美元本身并没有被高估。相对于全球各国货币加权平均(权重可以是gdp或trade
balance),美元并没有超出其fair value。而相反是英镑、欧元、澳币、新西兰币等
在此次金融危机之前都明显被高估。当危机爆发,资金出逃的时候,这些货币才是真正
遇到危机的。
欧洲的经济我也一直不看好。英国、德国等老牌资本主义在全球的经济地位已经逐渐被
中国为首的新兴经济体取代。英国除了金融行业,对全球经济似乎没有任何实质的贡献
。德国则似乎一直在吃老本,对本国经济一直没有什么有效的刺激方案。
索洛斯预测近两年可能会爆发货币危机,我觉得是有其可能性德,但这危机应该不是在
美元身上。

【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: 老兄,我觉得美元的走向受很多因素影响,不是反对你提到的,只是想说说
: 另一面的情况,将来哪一面的影响更显著,恐怕很不好说。
: 1.过去几年极度膨胀的是美元信贷,而不是美联储印出来的纸币,虽然两者都
: 可以买东西当钱用,但是前者存在的前提是债务人按时付账。现在每天发生的
: 是公司和消费者还不起帐,实质上在不停地大规模毁灭美元信贷和降低杠杆。
: 2.美国差,欧洲和亚洲更加差劲。如果欧亚任何地方先出现国家崩溃引发骨牌
: 效应的话,很可能引起资金出逃,逃进美元避风港。英国的地产泡沫相对来说比
: 美国更大,外债占鸡的屁比例更高....拉脱维亚国债拍卖失败,等等。
: 3.世界上最强大的军队还是有能力在欧亚举事点火制造事端的,伊朗,北朝鲜...
: 4.目前大宗商品的疯狂上涨里面有多少投机成分不好说,似乎大家可以在交易所

m**********r
发帖数: 887
25
全世界一起印钞票,肯定是通胀。美元走强也只能是相对其他货币而言吧。
m**********r
发帖数: 887
26
如果真爆发货币危机,作为纸币之一种的美元,怎么可能不受牵连。 如果美元独挺,
那美国的出口怎么办?
N********n
发帖数: 8363
27

Let's say I get a promotional check from a credit card and go out
spend it on HDTVs, vacation and all that. If I am not able to pay
the debt back, both the CC issuer and I are in trouble, but the
money I've spent is already in circulation. It's not destroyed.
The problems in US and the rest of world are quite different. The
rest of world took US as a worthy customer and sold their goods to
US in exchange of Dollar. They have now realized Dollar is a junk
currency b/c US has no industrial capaci

【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: 老兄,我觉得美元的走向受很多因素影响,不是反对你提到的,只是想说说
: 另一面的情况,将来哪一面的影响更显著,恐怕很不好说。
: 1.过去几年极度膨胀的是美元信贷,而不是美联储印出来的纸币,虽然两者都
: 可以买东西当钱用,但是前者存在的前提是债务人按时付账。现在每天发生的
: 是公司和消费者还不起帐,实质上在不停地大规模毁灭美元信贷和降低杠杆。
: 2.美国差,欧洲和亚洲更加差劲。如果欧亚任何地方先出现国家崩溃引发骨牌
: 效应的话,很可能引起资金出逃,逃进美元避风港。英国的地产泡沫相对来说比
: 美国更大,外债占鸡的屁比例更高....拉脱维亚国债拍卖失败,等等。
: 3.世界上最强大的军队还是有能力在欧亚举事点火制造事端的,伊朗,北朝鲜...
: 4.目前大宗商品的疯狂上涨里面有多少投机成分不好说,似乎大家可以在交易所

l******n
发帖数: 641
28
any candidates for this sounder form?

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Let's say I get a promotional check from a credit card and go out
: spend it on HDTVs, vacation and all that. If I am not able to pay
: the debt back, both the CC issuer and I are in trouble, but the
: money I've spent is already in circulation. It's not destroyed.
: The problems in US and the rest of world are quite different. The
: rest of world took US as a worthy customer and sold their goods to
: US in exchange of Dollar. They have now realized Dollar is a junk
: currency b/c US has no industrial capaci

m**********r
发帖数: 887
29
en... gold, oil and mineral?
b*****e
发帖数: 1125
30
So what could back up gbp, eur, cad etc? Commodity?
If there is no such a worthy customer like US, all those assets will be
devaluated quickly. Look how rube/oil performed when US was in trouble. No
other currencies or commodities will be safer if US goes down worse.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Let's say I get a promotional check from a credit card and go out
: spend it on HDTVs, vacation and all that. If I am not able to pay
: the debt back, both the CC issuer and I are in trouble, but the
: money I've spent is already in circulation. It's not destroyed.
: The problems in US and the rest of world are quite different. The
: rest of world took US as a worthy customer and sold their goods to
: US in exchange of Dollar. They have now realized Dollar is a junk
: currency b/c US has no industrial capaci

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A preview of hyperinflation in USJim Rogers Interview(zz)
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An Interview With Jim Roger, August 13, 2008A conversation (zt)
进入Investment版参与讨论
e****g
发帖数: 469
31
屁股决定脑袋,炒commodity的当然希望通胀,最好是hyperinflation,这一点貌似和
房托类
似。

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 在这个问题上,我和你有一样的想法。
: 我特想和 Jim Rogers 探讨一下这个问题。其实也不是没有人和他提起过,但是
: 这老头从来没有认真回答过这个问题,就是一再强调印了钞票必然通胀。对此俺
: 对他非常不满。

s********n
发帖数: 1962
32
hoho, 俺自认没资格评价那老爷子。
俺就觉着他的屁股只怕也比华尔街的那些脑袋更清楚一点。

【在 e****g 的大作中提到】
: 屁股决定脑袋,炒commodity的当然希望通胀,最好是hyperinflation,这一点貌似和
: 房托类
: 似。

d*****z
发帖数: 114
33
Jim Rogers is probably the most insightful person in macro investment field.
You better believe him if you don't know sure yourself. But again, Macro
economy is very hard to predict and I think it is not easy to consistently
profit by making predictions.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 在这个问题上,我和你有一样的想法。
: 我特想和 Jim Rogers 探讨一下这个问题。其实也不是没有人和他提起过,但是
: 这老头从来没有认真回答过这个问题,就是一再强调印了钞票必然通胀。对此俺
: 对他非常不满。

f****t
发帖数: 1063
34
right now, euro strongest > rbm > dollar.
why euro is better than dollar now?

trade

【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 说得不错,很多人看空美元,但我对此一直持有保留意见。
: 首先,美元本身并没有被高估。相对于全球各国货币加权平均(权重可以是gdp或trade
: balance),美元并没有超出其fair value。而相反是英镑、欧元、澳币、新西兰币等
: 在此次金融危机之前都明显被高估。当危机爆发,资金出逃的时候,这些货币才是真正
: 遇到危机的。
: 欧洲的经济我也一直不看好。英国、德国等老牌资本主义在全球的经济地位已经逐渐被
: 中国为首的新兴经济体取代。英国除了金融行业,对全球经济似乎没有任何实质的贡献
: 。德国则似乎一直在吃老本,对本国经济一直没有什么有效的刺激方案。
: 索洛斯预测近两年可能会爆发货币危机,我觉得是有其可能性德,但这危机应该不是在
: 美元身上。

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