h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 1 今天Fitch把加州的评级降为了BBB: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/2571530/Fitch-cuts-Californias-debt-rating
但是怎么说还是investment grade. 法律没规定加州的IOU不能买卖,经济衰退肯定有很
多人等着现金用. 我们能不能成立个投资俱乐部. 让板上投资的大牛跟踪估测加州的破
产概率, 加州的可以找那些有IOU的(一般给政府做零时工的公司会有很多)谈价钱买,
有编程能力的可以搞个网站(比如http://ioumarket.com/index.php)买卖, 比如100块CA IOU买70块, 大家投资挣点钱花, 比存银行好吧. 也比讨论上海房市或者参加immortalclub好吧. |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 IOU 这东西没个期限，不知道怎么 price 啊。
其实银行和一些 hedge fund 已经 gear up 开始准备收购 IOU 了。
不过还是要赞 heartinny 脑筋灵活。
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今天Fitch把加州的评级降为了BBB: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/2571530/Fitch-cuts-Californias-debt-rating
: 但是怎么说还是investment grade. 法律没规定加州的IOU不能买卖,经济衰退肯定有很
: 多人等着现金用. 我们能不能成立个投资俱乐部. 让板上投资的大牛跟踪估测加州的破
: 产概率, 加州的可以找那些有IOU的(一般给政府做零时工的公司会有很多)谈价钱买,
: 有编程能力的可以搞个网站(比如http://ioumarket.com/index.php)买卖, 比如100块CA IOU买70块, 大家投资挣点钱花, 比存银行好吧. 也比讨论上海房市或者参加immortalclub好吧.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 我想到了银行和hedge fund会收购IOU. 我觉得这正是我们price IOU最好的方法呀. 也
就是我们的目标不是从加州政府那里赎回IOU,而是以低价卖给银行和hedge fund. 我觉
得这种银行收购的信息应该不能很好地散布到系统里. 所以,肯定有拥有IOU的人不知道
可以以更高的价格卖给银行和hedge fund. 我们就可以挣价格差,欺负市场的信息不匀
称,反正大家钱加起来也不多,对系统应该不会产生任何影响,所以应该有这样的机会.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: IOU 这东西没个期限，不知道怎么 price 啊。
: 其实银行和一些 hedge fund 已经 gear up 开始准备收购 IOU 了。
: 不过还是要赞 heartinny 脑筋灵活。
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 4 last time ca issued iou's, many banks took them at the face value
from their customers and just earn the interest attached.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我想到了银行和hedge fund会收购IOU. 我觉得这正是我们price IOU最好的方法呀. 也
: 就是我们的目标不是从加州政府那里赎回IOU,而是以低价卖给银行和hedge fund. 我觉
: 得这种银行收购的信息应该不能很好地散布到系统里. 所以,肯定有拥有IOU的人不知道
: 可以以更高的价格卖给银行和hedge fund. 我们就可以挣价格差,欺负市场的信息不匀
: 称,反正大家钱加起来也不多,对系统应该不会产生任何影响,所以应该有这样的机会.
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 5 是啊。谁会把IOU折价卖给你？
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: last time ca issued iou's, many banks took them at the face value
: from their customers and just earn the interest attached.
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 6 this time is a bit different i guess. ca is at a worse rating.
if the attached interest rate is not high enough, ppl may demand
some discount. but cannot be much.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 是啊。谁会把IOU折价卖给你？
|
k**u
发帖数: 698 | 7 参加immortalclub 有什么不好的嚒？
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今天Fitch把加州的评级降为了BBB: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/2571530/Fitch-cuts-Californias-debt-rating
: 但是怎么说还是investment grade. 法律没规定加州的IOU不能买卖,经济衰退肯定有很
: 多人等着现金用. 我们能不能成立个投资俱乐部. 让板上投资的大牛跟踪估测加州的破
: 产概率, 加州的可以找那些有IOU的(一般给政府做零时工的公司会有很多)谈价钱买,
: 有编程能力的可以搞个网站(比如http://ioumarket.com/index.php)买卖, 比如100块CA IOU买70块, 大家投资挣点钱花, 比存银行好吧. 也比讨论上海房市或者参加immortalclub好吧.
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 8 the interest rate is 3.75%. and most big banks have said
they'll take them from the cusstomers, including boa, chase, wells
fargo, etc.
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: this time is a bit different i guess. ca is at a worse rating.
: if the attached interest rate is not high enough, ppl may demand
: some discount. but cannot be much.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 Bank of America announced late Wednesday that it would redeem in
full the state's IOUs (formally, "registered warrants") from current
BofA customers who want to cash them in. But the bank set a cutoff
date of July 10.
On Thursday, other big banks including Chase, Wells Fargo & Co.
and Union Bank followed BofA's lead, saying they'll cash the IOUs
from customers only through July 10.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-iou-banks3-2009jul03,0,1131334.story
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: the interest rate is 3.75%. and most big banks have said
: they'll take them from the cusstomers, including boa, chase, wells
: fargo, etc.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 10 Why not? Many business has cashflow issues right now. It is a normal
business area called factoring.
The current market price for IOU is 85 cents per dollar:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aRelPoFOrawM
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 是啊。谁会把IOU折价卖给你？
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 11 Nothing. I'm just teasing immortal.
【在 k**u 的大作中提到】
: 参加immortalclub 有什么不好的嚒？
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 12 Some notary costs should be added into the cost now, and it apparently will
rule out a lot of online competition:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-sets-rules-for-trading-state-ious-200976224330
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Bank of America announced late Wednesday that it would redeem in
: full the state's IOUs (formally, "registered warrants") from current
: BofA customers who want to cash them in. But the bank set a cutoff
: date of July 10.
: On Thursday, other big banks including Chase, Wells Fargo & Co.
: and Union Bank followed BofA's lead, saying they'll cash the IOUs
: from customers only through July 10.
: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-iou-banks3-2009jul03,0,1131334.story
|
A**H
发帖数: 4797 | 13 I was just posting a topic on this, wondering how practical it is to make
some profit out of this.
worth discussing.
ACTION!
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今天Fitch把加州的评级降为了BBB: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/2571530/Fitch-cuts-Californias-debt-rating
: 但是怎么说还是investment grade. 法律没规定加州的IOU不能买卖,经济衰退肯定有很
: 多人等着现金用. 我们能不能成立个投资俱乐部. 让板上投资的大牛跟踪估测加州的破
: 产概率, 加州的可以找那些有IOU的(一般给政府做零时工的公司会有很多)谈价钱买,
: 有编程能力的可以搞个网站(比如http://ioumarket.com/index.php)买卖, 比如100块CA IOU买70块, 大家投资挣点钱花, 比存银行好吧. 也比讨论上海房市或者参加immortalclub好吧.
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 14 show me the market?
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Why not? Many business has cashflow issues right now. It is a normal
: business area called factoring.
: The current market price for IOU is 85 cents per dollar:
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aRelPoFOrawM
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 Zan JS!
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 我想到了银行和hedge fund会收购IOU. 我觉得这正是我们price IOU最好的方法呀. 也
: 就是我们的目标不是从加州政府那里赎回IOU,而是以低价卖给银行和hedge fund. 我觉
: 得这种银行收购的信息应该不能很好地散布到系统里. 所以,肯定有拥有IOU的人不知道
: 可以以更高的价格卖给银行和hedge fund. 我们就可以挣价格差,欺负市场的信息不匀
: 称,反正大家钱加起来也不多,对系统应该不会产生任何影响,所以应该有这样的机会.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 买卖这个咚咚有没有法定的fees? @_@
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今天Fitch把加州的评级降为了BBB: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/2571530/Fitch-cuts-Californias-debt-rating
: 但是怎么说还是investment grade. 法律没规定加州的IOU不能买卖,经济衰退肯定有很
: 多人等着现金用. 我们能不能成立个投资俱乐部. 让板上投资的大牛跟踪估测加州的破
: 产概率, 加州的可以找那些有IOU的(一般给政府做零时工的公司会有很多)谈价钱买,
: 有编程能力的可以搞个网站(比如http://ioumarket.com/index.php)买卖, 比如100块CA IOU买70块, 大家投资挣点钱花, 比存银行好吧. 也比讨论上海房市或者参加immortalclub好吧.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 17 What is JS? Javascript or Jessica Simpson?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Zan JS!
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 18 No, 奸商.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: What is JS? Javascript or Jessica Simpson?
|
A**H
发帖数: 4797 | 19 Hundreds of thousands state employees need cash to make ends meet and they
are the provider;
CA government will cash the notes and interest, yes 3.75% tax free, and this
is the other end of the market.
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: show me the market?
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 20 i mean th 85 cents on a dollar market. i only see one end of it on
craigslist.
this
【在 A**H 的大作中提到】
: Hundreds of thousands state employees need cash to make ends meet and they
: are the provider;
: CA government will cash the notes and interest, yes 3.75% tax free, and this
: is the other end of the market.
|
|
|
A**H
发帖数: 4797 | 21 I don't think 85 cents on the dollar is the problem.
A notarized bill of sale accompanying the transaction bring practical
inconvenience to the table.
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: i mean th 85 cents on a dollar market. i only see one end of it on
: craigslist.
:
: this
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 22 banks and credit unions are likely to continue to accept the warrants.
nobody is gonna sell at 85 cents on a dollar.
【在 A**H 的大作中提到】
: I don't think 85 cents on the dollar is the problem.
: A notarized bill of sale accompanying the transaction bring practical
: inconvenience to the table.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 23 You can always scare them to sell.
"Sell it before it becomes toilet paper!"
Same as
"Buy the house before rate goes up again!"
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: banks and credit unions are likely to continue to accept the warrants.
: nobody is gonna sell at 85 cents on a dollar.
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 24 ppl are not that stupid.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: You can always scare them to sell.
: "Sell it before it becomes toilet paper!"
: Same as
: "Buy the house before rate goes up again!"
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 25 That is not a problem either. It is just costs that can be managed. For
example, find some contractors who do lots of business with the government
thus holds big IOU checks. The notarization cost would be much lower (on per
dollar base) in that case. We can also find a partner who have license to
notarize bill of sale. It is easy to get such license.
The BBB governement bond has a historical default risk less than 1%. We can
factor in a much bigger risk for protection.
But the major risk is from
【在 A**H 的大作中提到】
: I don't think 85 cents on the dollar is the problem.
: A notarized bill of sale accompanying the transaction bring practical
: inconvenience to the table.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 26 It's not stupidity at all. We are providing liquidity as an essential
service for the business. Many people and company are living from paycheck
to paycheck. If such service is not available, that will really kill them. Ever wonder why payday loan is so popular?
As I said before, factoring http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factoring_(finance) is a real business. Only in IOU's case, the counter party is CA government so it allows normal people to access their risks without the normal complicated ris
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: ppl are not that stupid.
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 27 i'm just saying the risk premium is not high and ppl are not that stupid
to think otherwise. therefore there's not much opportunity there.
the craigslist's 85% discount is just 1 end of the market. so far
i don't see the other end at the horizon at this price.
Ever wonder why payday loan is so popular?
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: It's not stupidity at all. We are providing liquidity as an essential
: service for the business. Many people and company are living from paycheck
: to paycheck. If such service is not available, that will really kill them. Ever wonder why payday loan is so popular?
: As I said before, factoring http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factoring_(finance) is a real business. Only in IOU's case, the counter party is CA government so it allows normal people to access their risks without the normal complicated ris
|
A**H
发帖数: 4797 | 28 I think the Controller's spokesman already said IOUs are not securities ...
If notarization is required, it means you have to collect IOUs with more
physical restraints. Usually, state employees, particularly those living
check by check, won't have big IOU bills. I think they are deep discounted
IOU source. Small business would ask more than what we can offer, right?
per
can
that
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: That is not a problem either. It is just costs that can be managed. For
: example, find some contractors who do lots of business with the government
: thus holds big IOU checks. The notarization cost would be much lower (on per
: dollar base) in that case. We can also find a partner who have license to
: notarize bill of sale. It is easy to get such license.
: The BBB governement bond has a historical default risk less than 1%. We can
: factor in a much bigger risk for protection.
: But the major risk is from
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 29 Why doesn't the craigslist buyer register a MJ and post sth saying
"I am selling IOU at 86%" to hoax other sellers?
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: i'm just saying the risk premium is not high and ppl are not that stupid
: to think otherwise. therefore there's not much opportunity there.
: the craigslist's 85% discount is just 1 end of the market. so far
: i don't see the other end at the horizon at this price.
:
: Ever wonder why payday loan is so popular?
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 30 because the banks are still taking them at 100% and there's no single
seller out there.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Why doesn't the craigslist buyer register a MJ and post sth saying
: "I am selling IOU at 86%" to hoax other sellers?
|
|
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 31 They can post one on Jul 11 ah.
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: because the banks are still taking them at 100% and there's no single
: seller out there.
|
x******n
发帖数: 1328 | 32 我觉得这个风险很大啊。加州现在的财政状况绝对比BBB差
破产的几率很大，IOU很可能在你手上的时候就变成废纸了
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今天Fitch把加州的评级降为了BBB: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/2571530/Fitch-cuts-Californias-debt-rating
: 但是怎么说还是investment grade. 法律没规定加州的IOU不能买卖,经济衰退肯定有很
: 多人等着现金用. 我们能不能成立个投资俱乐部. 让板上投资的大牛跟踪估测加州的破
: 产概率, 加州的可以找那些有IOU的(一般给政府做零时工的公司会有很多)谈价钱买,
: 有编程能力的可以搞个网站(比如http://ioumarket.com/index.php)买卖, 比如100块CA IOU买70块, 大家投资挣点钱花, 比存银行好吧. 也比讨论上海房市或者参加immortalclub好吧.
|
A**H
发帖数: 4797 | 33 CA goes broke before Oct 3, 2009? Can't see that possibility.
【在 x******n 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得这个风险很大啊。加州现在的财政状况绝对比BBB差
: 破产的几率很大，IOU很可能在你手上的时候就变成废纸了
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 34 big banks are likely to extend the deadline. credit unions
will continue to accept them.
there will be a secondary market if this thing does not end soon.
just don't expect to get rich from buying/selling it. i actually
quite happy on just getting the 3.75% tax free interest.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: They can post one on Jul 11 ah.
|
t***s
发帖数: 4666 | 35 iou will not become toilet paper. you can at least use it to pay
the state tax owed.
【在 x******n 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得这个风险很大啊。加州现在的财政状况绝对比BBB差
: 破产的几率很大，IOU很可能在你手上的时候就变成废纸了
|
a******g
发帖数: 1538 | 36 我不相信州政府会破产。
实在不行被IB们一折腾，高速公路全改成收费公路，public beach改成收费beach, 财
政危机解决了，banker的腰包也鼓了。
【在 x******n 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得这个风险很大啊。加州现在的财政状况绝对比BBB差
: 破产的几率很大，IOU很可能在你手上的时候就变成废纸了
|
A**H
发帖数: 4797 | 37 我觉得主要还是实际操作的障碍
有人缺钱用愿意打折卖了欠条，怎么去把这些目标找出来，最好还得找比较大额的欠条
每一个买卖都要公证，需要公证员目击每一个买卖，加洲的公证不是一般的麻烦，要手
填不少信息
利润应该是可以的如果不说是可观的
3.75%/4 + 15% or 14% or all the way down to 5% in 3 months.
risk is very low if not zero |
p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 38 我也认为加州不可能按时兑现IOU，虽然也不会破产。
总之买IOU风险很大。
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: big banks are likely to extend the deadline. credit unions
: will continue to accept them.
: there will be a secondary market if this thing does not end soon.
: just don't expect to get rich from buying/selling it. i actually
: quite happy on just getting the 3.75% tax free interest.
|
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 39 我老对你能从30几个财经类句勒布里面把我老的单列出来表示赞赏和由中的感谢
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Nothing. I'm just teasing immortal.
|
x******n
发帖数: 1328 | 40 还有3个月到期的BBB债倦会有这么高的收益率？
【在 A**H 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得主要还是实际操作的障碍
: 有人缺钱用愿意打折卖了欠条，怎么去把这些目标找出来，最好还得找比较大额的欠条
: 每一个买卖都要公证，需要公证员目击每一个买卖，加洲的公证不是一般的麻烦，要手
: 填不少信息
: 利润应该是可以的如果不说是可观的
: 3.75%/4 + 15% or 14% or all the way down to 5% in 3 months.
: risk is very low if not zero
|
