K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 1 偶已经基本上决定要放弃了。
看Analysts Opinion和Analysts Estimates到底有用吗？
偶看了几个自己观察的股票，发现同一行业的，某个企业past 7-30 days
被EPS revision up了很多个，对revenue的估计也在几周内涨了3-4%.
另一个企业则纹丝不动，实在不懂何故。这弄得偶搞不明白现在的股价
到底比起30天前来是合算了还是不合算了，也弄不明白earning report
到地要和什么比。
偶想知道的是一般这种analyst在一个股票上到底花多少时间研究？如果花
很多时间为啥会出现那么巨大的调整?
看来对于这种股票基本只能做长期了。可恶的analysts们，//sigh... | r****1
发帖数: 2299 | 2 公司现状一直随着本身或大环境而改变，所以REVISE ESTIMATE很正常，有时候公司自
己宣布调低或调高ESTIMATE，也会影响。这个数据可以作参考，一般ER就用最近的数据
作比较，看BEAT了没有。基本上可以从ESTIMATE上看公司是否前景看好，反正赔钱或预
期赔钱的公司就最好不要买了。 | K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 3 Ok, 偶现在的结论就是estimate的用法应该是这样：
自己对公司current quarter, next quarter, current year, next
year都做一个评估，然后和yahoo的analyst数据对比。然后如果总体来
说自己的评估高于目前的analyst average, 则持有。
1）如果current quarter 自评高于analyst, 则持有到ER之后。
2）如果next quarter高于analyst，则持有到下一个ER之前某天。
3) 如果current year, next year高于analyst，则长期持有，直到
analyst revise estimate为止。
4) 如果所有的本人estimate都低于analyst estimate, 则现在就应该
卖掉，没有持有的意义。
当然，这是在你觉得本人研究力度大于average analyst的时候，呵呵。
【在 r****1 的大作中提到】
: 公司现状一直随着本身或大环境而改变，所以REVISE ESTIMATE很正常，有时候公司自
: 己宣布调低或调高ESTIMATE，也会影响。这个数据可以作参考，一般ER就用最近的数据
: 作比较，看BEAT了没有。基本上可以从ESTIMATE上看公司是否前景看好，反正赔钱或预
: 期赔钱的公司就最好不要买了。
| f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 4 lol, to me, trusting (or even listening to) some "analysts" is surely a good
way to lose my $ "with confidence".
they're well educated/trained crooks, with access to much much much more
information than us (yet never work for our interest), and can easily "
adjust" their numbers for some reasons...
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 偶已经基本上决定要放弃了。
: 看Analysts Opinion和Analysts Estimates到底有用吗？
: 偶看了几个自己观察的股票，发现同一行业的，某个企业past 7-30 days
: 被EPS revision up了很多个，对revenue的估计也在几周内涨了3-4%.
: 另一个企业则纹丝不动，实在不懂何故。这弄得偶搞不明白现在的股价
: 到底比起30天前来是合算了还是不合算了，也弄不明白earning report
: 到地要和什么比。
: 偶想知道的是一般这种analyst在一个股票上到底花多少时间研究？如果花
: 很多时间为啥会出现那么巨大的调整?
: 看来对于这种股票基本只能做长期了。可恶的analysts们，//sigh...
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 You misunderstood me. I really hope they were like what you
described. Then if you are familiar with a business you may
beat the system -- since analyst opinions have some impact
on some investors' decisions.
However, most likely, it's not that simple.
good
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: lol, to me, trusting (or even listening to) some "analysts" is surely a good
: way to lose my $ "with confidence".
: they're well educated/trained crooks, with access to much much much more
: information than us (yet never work for our interest), and can easily "
: adjust" their numbers for some reasons...
| f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 6 take this subprime crisis as an exmaple, those well established IBs,
analysts, rating agencies, insurance companies... are all supposed to be
very familiar with the industry, and have very sophisticated models to "
guide" us into this dark tunnel...
we spend 1 hr (?) here and there doing our "research", they spend their
whole day (again, with much much more information/tools/insider sources...).
.. hehe, believe it or not, still, i have more trust in you than them. they'
ll never work for my $,
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: You misunderstood me. I really hope they were like what you
: described. Then if you are familiar with a business you may
: beat the system -- since analyst opinions have some impact
: on some investors' decisions.
: However, most likely, it's not that simple.
:
: good
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 Well, I actually also spent a whole day too so far, haha.
).
they'
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: take this subprime crisis as an exmaple, those well established IBs,
: analysts, rating agencies, insurance companies... are all supposed to be
: very familiar with the industry, and have very sophisticated models to "
: guide" us into this dark tunnel...
: we spend 1 hr (?) here and there doing our "research", they spend their
: whole day (again, with much much more information/tools/insider sources...).
: .. hehe, believe it or not, still, i have more trust in you than them. they'
: ll never work for my $,
| l**i
发帖数: 176 | 8 其实他们不可信，自己更不可信。
还是扔硬币吧。呵呵。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ok, 偶现在的结论就是estimate的用法应该是这样：
: 自己对公司current quarter, next quarter, current year, next
: year都做一个评估，然后和yahoo的analyst数据对比。然后如果总体来
: 说自己的评估高于目前的analyst average, 则持有。
: 1）如果current quarter 自评高于analyst, 则持有到ER之后。
: 2）如果next quarter高于analyst，则持有到下一个ER之前某天。
: 3) 如果current year, next year高于analyst，则长期持有，直到
: analyst revise estimate为止。
: 4) 如果所有的本人estimate都低于analyst estimate, 则现在就应该
: 卖掉，没有持有的意义。
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