m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 1 there is so much bullish sentiment recently. I am afraid that the market is
topped. How many people here wait Dow to reach 10000 to sell out their
positions. If there are many, Dow has little chance to break this mark. Vote
your opinions to see how many are still bull with DOW close to 9600. |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 Why what I am seeing is everybody thinks market is topped or topping??
is
Vote
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: there is so much bullish sentiment recently. I am afraid that the market is
: topped. How many people here wait Dow to reach 10000 to sell out their
: positions. If there are many, Dow has little chance to break this mark. Vote
: your opinions to see how many are still bull with DOW close to 9600.
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 3 spt, haha
all in 401k?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Why what I am seeing is everybody thinks market is topped or topping??
:
: is
: Vote
|
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 4 that is because you didn't go to Stock board.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Why what I am seeing is everybody thinks market is topped or topping??
:
: is
: Vote
|
f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 5 You can't simply look at what "most" people are thinking, that's too noisy. |
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 6 我觉得stock版是个很好的散户情绪观察地
但是毕竟更重要的玩家还是大量的基金，保险公司
等机构
他们的情绪更加反映问题吧
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: that is because you didn't go to Stock board.
|
F*******e
发帖数: 485 | 7 If you are interested in ppl sentiment as the clue of market moving, I
suggest
you to refer AAII sentiment survey.
is
Vote
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: there is so much bullish sentiment recently. I am afraid that the market is
: topped. How many people here wait Dow to reach 10000 to sell out their
: positions. If there are many, Dow has little chance to break this mark. Vote
: your opinions to see how many are still bull with DOW close to 9600.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 8 I actually don't think those sentiment survey is as good as stock board. :)
to Upward,
I do look at the stock board, but not only the stock board. This are also
Daqian, Hutong9, and Tader1688. Some green people start turning bullish
recently, particularly on financial stocks. That's a good sign for bears.
But most HHs are still bearish, which makes me worry a little bit as a
bear. And there are many people like you and me looking for bearish signs,
which makes me worry even more.
On the other ha
【在 F*******e 的大作中提到】
: If you are interested in ppl sentiment as the clue of market moving, I
: suggest
: you to refer AAII sentiment survey.
:
: is
: Vote
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 9 在你们讨论的同时我已经开始准备进仓short了。
有啥好地ETF大家可以推荐一下！！！ |
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 10 The begging question is whether there is a quick recovery to normal growth.
This is little doubt that the worst is over yet the economy has no meaning
recovery. So the stock market is fair priced now and can not move high
because of the fundamentals. If there is recovery, 10000 DOW is well too
cheap. Anyway, to be conservative, I recommend to move into junk bond funds.
When the worst is over, default rate will be stabilizing and those junk
bonds still pay out rich dividends around 10-13%.
If you |
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 "can not move high because of the fundamentals."
I don't think so. Market is never rational and frequently went way
beyond fundamental.
"to be conservative, I recommend to move into junk bond funds."
If your reason is "default rate will be stabilizing", then you are too
late. It has been priced in.
"people see huge credit risk to previous year overlending by banks which
may lead to bad debt. Chinese stock is falling like a rock."
Chinese stock falls like a rock because banks stop lending, not be
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: The begging question is whether there is a quick recovery to normal growth.
: This is little doubt that the worst is over yet the economy has no meaning
: recovery. So the stock market is fair priced now and can not move high
: because of the fundamentals. If there is recovery, 10000 DOW is well too
: cheap. Anyway, to be conservative, I recommend to move into junk bond funds.
: When the worst is over, default rate will be stabilizing and those junk
: bonds still pay out rich dividends around 10-13%.
: If you
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 12 I totally agree, but still may jump into the wegan to start shorting.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: "can not move high because of the fundamentals."
: I don't think so. Market is never rational and frequently went way
: beyond fundamental.
: "to be conservative, I recommend to move into junk bond funds."
: If your reason is "default rate will be stabilizing", then you are too
: late. It has been priced in.
: "people see huge credit risk to previous year overlending by banks which
: may lead to bad debt. Chinese stock is falling like a rock."
: Chinese stock falls like a rock because banks stop lending, not be
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 13 In rosy credit environment, the credit spread between AAA and junk is around
400-500 base points. Currently it is 800-900% base points. My thesis is not
that those junk bonds will appreciate. I will be glad to just collect 13%
interest rate.
The valuation of SP500 is already rich priced within a great hope of
recovery. So it is not cheap. |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 14 AAA bonds are in bubble mode. It's not a good benchmark to compare.
I understand you are not looking at capital appreciation but stable
cash flow...
around
not
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: In rosy credit environment, the credit spread between AAA and junk is around
: 400-500 base points. Currently it is 800-900% base points. My thesis is not
: that those junk bonds will appreciate. I will be glad to just collect 13%
: interest rate.
: The valuation of SP500 is already rich priced within a great hope of
: recovery. So it is not cheap.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 15 I do not understand this. Would you elaborate? I am intending to buy AAA
rated TIPS bonds. I agree long term treasury bond rate is too low. I am not
a buyer for TLT close to $95. |
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 16 By Tom Kohn
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.,
the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, said investors should
avoid “black holes” of the junk bond market as recovery
rates drop.
“We’re somewhat more cautious about high-yield bonds,”
Curtis Mewbourne, a managing director at Pimco, wrote in an
article on the firm’s Web site. “Careful attention to credit
selection and avoidance of so-called ‘black holes of credit’
will likely be a critical component to a successfu
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: In rosy credit environment, the credit spread between AAA and junk is around
: 400-500 base points. Currently it is 800-900% base points. My thesis is not
: that those junk bonds will appreciate. I will be glad to just collect 13%
: interest rate.
: The valuation of SP500 is already rich priced within a great hope of
: recovery. So it is not cheap.
|
