m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 1 I am pretty interested in long term treasury bonds and believe that overwelming national debt will force the the rate of bonds go up in the
future. I do not know the timing. This could happen during a period of 5 - 10 years. I am thinking about how to profit from such trend withoutmuch
risk.
For risk part, I do no like gold because I believe it has already priced in 300% inflation for the next 10-20 years. Gold real price should be $400. Too risk for me. | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 2 buy tlt put?
in
Too
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: I am pretty interested in long term treasury bonds and believe that overwelming national debt will force the the rate of bonds go up in the
: future. I do not know the timing. This could happen during a period of 5 - 10 years. I am thinking about how to profit from such trend withoutmuch
: risk.
: For risk part, I do no like gold because I believe it has already priced in 300% inflation for the next 10-20 years. Gold real price should be $400. Too risk for me.
| N******r
发帖数: 642 | | f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 4 why are you so sure about it? what do you think is the alternative to us
treasury bonds, you can just put your money in there.
overwelming national debt will force the the rate of bonds go up in the
10 years. I am thinking about how to profit from such trend withoutmuch
in 300% inflation for the next 10-20 years. Gold real price should be $400.
Too risk for me.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: I am pretty interested in long term treasury bonds and believe that overwelming national debt will force the the rate of bonds go up in the
: future. I do not know the timing. This could happen during a period of 5 - 10 years. I am thinking about how to profit from such trend withoutmuch
: risk.
: For risk part, I do no like gold because I believe it has already priced in 300% inflation for the next 10-20 years. Gold real price should be $400. Too risk for me.
| m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 5 Historic 10 year treasury yields 7.4%. If current 10 year treasury yield of
3.8% approaches to its historic norm, TLT will lose half of its value in
time. Assume this happens in 10 years, TLT may only lose 4% each year. With
4% current yield, the lose of value will be compensated by the interest
payment. So shorting TLT makes no sense. Put is good only when you are
expecting sharp movement of the TLT price. Fed will not allow this to happen
. | m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 6 What's the best alternative is the question. Next crisis may be the treasury
bond crisis. I do not know what is the best hedge of such crisis. Will junk
bonds and/or equities crash together with treasury bonds? I have no idea.
In current financial crisis, the best strategy is investing into treasury
before the crisis when you saw the yield curve flattened and reversed, and
then moves into equities and junk bonds after the crisis. If you do so
correctly, you make a killing. I think what is the be
【在 f**********r 的大作中提到】
: why are you so sure about it? what do you think is the alternative to us
: treasury bonds, you can just put your money in there.
:
: overwelming national debt will force the the rate of bonds go up in the
: 10 years. I am thinking about how to profit from such trend withoutmuch
: in 300% inflation for the next 10-20 years. Gold real price should be $400.
: Too risk for me.
| f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 7 you got to look at the global market instead of just usa markets, the
treasury bond crisis may not happen if euro zone, japan, and uk are worse,
usa treasury market has the largest volume and best liquidity to park the
money, and us dollar is world reserve money, the current debt ratio is
actually not high, you don't need inflation or default to pay off the debt,
although inflation is exported to other courntries. gold is not pricing the
inflation at all, it's just reflecting the inverse relatio
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: What's the best alternative is the question. Next crisis may be the treasury
: bond crisis. I do not know what is the best hedge of such crisis. Will junk
: bonds and/or equities crash together with treasury bonds? I have no idea.
: In current financial crisis, the best strategy is investing into treasury
: before the crisis when you saw the yield curve flattened and reversed, and
: then moves into equities and junk bonds after the crisis. If you do so
: correctly, you make a killing. I think what is the be
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